Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Todd Burch]

MMD is getting swallowed up.

 

[NakedLong]

There is some research suggesting a 5% bump is typical from S&P inclusion but Tesla is very atypical in size for a new addition. I think that is likely to make a big difference on price impact.

Maybe with Tesla being already highly volatile, it has even less impact than the average 5%. Maybe this current rally is caused by anticipating the inclusion already and the stock will be unchanged after inclusion. Maybe like some research says it's all about brand awareness the S&P bump, and Tesla already has brand awareness so it is not going to change.

Honestly, this rapid rise in SP is going to people's heads. I'm not saying there won't be a massive SP bump (>5%) from S&P inclusion... I am saying we don't know, and that the expectation that there will be is not supported by any historical evidence. People responding to me are giving anecdotal evidence, or events which might be correlated but not causing SP rises. When you consider the index inclusion you have to isolate it from other effects, like China ramp or FSD rollout, which is hard to do for TSLA as an individual stock, but easier to do with studies covering a number of stocks.

Imagine Tesla releases a great Q4 on the back of great China deliveries and profits, and subsequently gets included in the S&P, the SP rallies from 400 to 600. How are you going to tell me that the S&P inclusion caused this jump and not the Q4 results, and underlying fundamentals?

 

[StealthP3D]

Pretty good video, I agreed with most of it. He made a point about being an emotional bull driven by hope if you think the stock price will be 3500 by 2023. But I want to explore (non-emotionally) if that is possible. Based on just 20% car margins and ramp up to a few million units per year, it would never be that high, but if you take into account FSD how will that effect the 2023 share price?

I agree that he's being conservative, but is that really a bad thing? He's discounting the possibility of FSD happening in anything resembling Musk's timeframe. And yet he still thinks TSLA is a very compelling investment. The way I see it, he won't be disappointed!

 

[MP3Mike]

Elon's tweet is actually a response, and reading it again it's actually pretty clear the guy was asking about early access to the holiday update.

Sorry to disappoint, I was super excited when I first saw that too.

Yeah and what did Elon say? "Tesla holiday software update has FSD sneak preview, Stardew Valley, Lost Backgammon & a few other things"

So the holiday update includes the FSD sneak preview. They aren't separate items.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

don't get too excited. im sure a lot of people will take their winnings today, last real day before Christmas gets going for many, and sit out the holidays. I wouldn't be surprised to see red today.
Im expecting 420 by mid jan, 430-440 by end maybe.

 

[Chocochip]

Oh man... I didn't want to have to do this, but... I just got some fresh footage from $TSLAQ Central, and I could've just sat on it, but it's not really fair to you guys, so I just pasted it below.

 

[traxila]

This is going to hit a wall hard when we least expect it.

But you would think that with the weekend in the way, brokers will not be very forgiving for shorts under water right now. Forced liquidations all day long? Surprising to me today would be if nothing much happened. We will see.

 

[KarenRei]

Maybe with Tesla being already highly volatile, it has even less impact than the average 5%. Maybe this current rally is caused by anticipating the inclusion already and the stock will be unchanged after inclusion. Maybe like some research says it's all about brand awareness the S&P bump, and Tesla already has brand awareness so it is not going to change.

Honestly, this rapid rise in SP is going to people's heads. I'm not saying there won't be a massive SP bump (>5%) from S&P inclusion... I am saying we don't know, and that the expectation that there will be is not supported by any historical evidence. People responding to me are giving anecdotal evidence, or events which might be correlated but not causing SP rises. When you consider the index inclusion you have to isolate it from other effects, like China ramp or FSD rollout, which is hard to do for TSLA as an individual stock, but easier to do with studies covering a number of stocks.

Imagine Tesla releases a great Q4 on the back of great China deliveries and profits, and subsequently gets included in the S&P, the SP rallies from 400 to 600. How are you going to tell me that the S&P inclusion caused this jump and not the Q4 results, and underlying fundamentals?

Or in simple terms: we're in uncharted waters here.

That said, they're great waters to sail

 

[jbcarioca]

Memes? I'm making a freaking cake when it happens

Everyone needs to hold their own version of a "$420 party", and share pics

Alice B Toklas had a great brownie recipe if you want a brownie cake. It was a Looong time ago, I know but the brownie cake is spectacular.

Your freshly supercharged Model 3 should NOT be driven by you after that, of course.

 

[Opus BC fan]

Somebody really does not want it to be today...

 

[Unpilot]

Update from the North pole

Present for Chanos Et al.

 

[NakedLong]

Or in simple terms: we're in uncharted waters here.

That said, they're great waters to sail

I guess I have a secondary point of the scientific papers on this topic should not be ignored.

I don't base my understanding of the environment from reading internet forums or newspapers - I read the IPCC reports. Primary sources, research and data are your friend as an investor. Ignore it at your own peril.

 

[Runarbt]

Somebody really does not want it to be today...

We got volume on our side. They will fold..

 

[sparcs]

Arstechnica: How Tesla proved the haters wrong

Shockingly positive article from arstechnica on Tesla. I read it waiting for the punchline, but surprisingly never came.

 

[Unpilot]

We got volume on our side. They will fold..

Yep over 2.2 million shares in the first 20 minutes

 

[NakedLong]

I agree that he's being conservative, but is that really a bad thing? He's discounting the possibility of FSD happening in anything resembling Musk's timeframe. And yet he still thinks TSLA is a very compelling investment. The way I see it, he won't be disappointed!

I'm an engineer. I like my predictions to be modelled like an accurate probability distribution curve, rather than a deliberately inaccurate one.

 

[Causalien]

I used to watch sports...read books...go for walks....last few days I just sit and stare at a stock ticker.

Technically, this is making more money tyan any other job right now, so it make sense to focus your attention to the one bringing in the most bacon.

At least that's how I justify it.

 

[Runarbt]

Yep over 2.2 million shares in the first 20 minutes

And everything traded above yesterdays fresh ATH.

 

[MartinAustin]

Boeing programmers (MCAS, Starliner) and Tesla shorts... which ones are worse at their jobs? I can't decide.

Software is definitely one of the strengths of Tesla and SpaceX, and Elon's previous history as a programmer is a big part of that.

 

[willow_hiller]

I used to watch sports...read books...go for walks....last few days I just sit and stare at a stock ticker.

Had an ice breaker at work the other day, where we were supposed to say our hobbies...

I literally couldn't think of anything other than driving my Model 3, admiring my Model 3, reading Tesla forums, and watching TSLA while wishing I had more money to invest.

Tesla is all consuming!