Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[FrankSG]

Looks like I may need to free up some cash to contribute to the $420 limit order wall today. Did not expect it to happen this soon. Just bought a house so not much dry powder, but I’ll pick up a few. I think we all should consider picking up a few symbolic shares at $420.

I'm off to bed soon, but if I wake up to a SP of >$420, I'll put in 2 limit orders. 1 for $420, and 1 for $420.69. If I could buy those new shiny fractional shares I'd put in a limit order for 4.20 shares @ $420, but I don't think I can at IB, and don't really want to have fractional shares tbh.

 

[Fact Checking]

I'm off to bed soon, but if I wake up to a SP of >$420, I'll put in 2 limit orders. 1 for $420, and 1 for $420.69. If I could buy those new shiny fractional shares I'd put in a limit order for 4.20 shares @ $420, but I don't think I can at IB, and don't really want to have fractional shares tbh.

Buy-stop orders at $420.

Limit orders will either sell at $420, or will execute instantly at a lower price.

 

[CorneliusXX]

409 in premarket this is gonna be 420 day isn't it?

Everyone get their memes ready

 

[mongo]

OT news from the extended Musk Universe:

Starliner (Boeing Crew) did not make its require orbital insertion burn properly. Currently stable and in communication with ground control, but may not make it to the ISS.
Thread:
Commercial Crew Transportation Capability (CCtCap) SpaceX and Boeing developments

 

[Sancho]

For breakfast, I’d like two eggs over easy and a side of $420.

No coffee, I’m already wide awake.

 

[kengchang]

Covering my 410 call at the open

 

[humbaba]

The "FSD sneak preview" business got me thinking, like it has everyone else, as to what does it mean. My own speculation is that it is minimally impactful. My thoughts:

• video demo, live or recorded -- I think not very likely, but plausible
• just means the early access release already intended for December -- I think more likely
• temporarily make the current state of FSD available to all owners -- this would be in line with what they have done before with "try before you buy" on autopilot. It would come with a "imminent price increase" warning. I think this most likely

But the FSD thinking reminded me of the lack of HW3 for us owners of older cars. IIRC that was supposed to be installations "late Q4" but -- despite some upgrades happening -- it seems pretty clear that this is not happening on a large scale this year. So why the delay?

All of the speculation about Model Y being delivered earlier seemed silly with Tesla being battery constrained, but then it got officially moved up from fall to summer. One explanation I heard was that Tesla was preparing for a recession that never materialized and consequently were willing to accelerate the schedule.

Now, if that is the case and they weren't just sandbagging the time frame then they would need more of the HW3 production for the model Y. And if GF3 was scaling up faster than originally planned/expected that would be another blow to availability.

In light of that, I find the low rate of HW3 upgrades to be further indication that the rumors around Q1 release for model Y to have more credibility. I realize that it is far from proof, just a thought.

 

[Fact Checking]

Everyone get their memes ready

Spoiler: Dear TSLAQ, I'm ready!

 

[Runarbt]

The "FSD sneak preview" business got me thinking, like it has everyone else, as to what does it mean. My own speculation is that it is minimally impactful. My thoughts:

• video demo, live or recorded -- I think not very likely, but plausible
• just means the early access release already intended for December -- I think more likely
• temporarily make the current state of FSD available to all owners -- this would be in line with what they have done before with "try before you buy" on autopilot. It would come with a "imminent price increase" warning. I think this most likely

But the FSD thinking reminded me of the lack of HW3 for us owners of older cars. IIRC that was supposed to be installations "late Q4" but -- despite some upgrades happening -- it seems pretty clear that this is not happening on a large scale this year. So why the delay?

All of the speculation about Model Y being delivered earlier seemed silly with Tesla being battery constrained, but then it got officially moved up from fall to summer. One explanation I heard was that Tesla was preparing for a recession that never materialized and consequently were willing to accelerate the schedule.

Now, if that is the case and they weren't just sandbagging the time frame then they would need more of the HW3 production for the model Y. And if GF3 was scaling up faster than originally planned/expected that would be another blow to availability.

In light of that, I find the low rate of HW3 upgrades to be further indication that the rumors around Q1 release for model Y to have more credibility. I realize that it is far from proof, just a thought.

Elon tweeted: "Needs a few more days of validation, then early access, then wide release"

So, my guess its not a video demo, but the real deal. Your nr.2

 

[FrankSG]

Buy-stop orders at $420.

Limit orders will either sell at $420, or will execute instantly at a lower price.

Limit order after SP is over $420, should execute at $420, no?

Stop order says it is likely to execute at significantly different price. Do you mean a stop limit order?

I still feel like I should just go with a limit order after $420 has been breached. If it never dips below $420 again, and it never executes, it won't be the end of the world.

 

[NakedLong]

When the Saudis bought a 4% stake in Tesla and bought ~7m shares, that coincided with a rising price from ~$260 to ~$360, in about ~2-3 months.

S&P 500 inclusion could result in the permanent purchase of 10m-30m TSLA shares, over a time period of just a few weeks.

I don't know what effect it's going to have, neither does anyone else - but that it's not going to be insignificant is a pretty safe guess IMHO.

(Not advice though.)

This is not scientific. There are a lot of studies on the topic of S&P inclusion.

This is the list of articles which I skimmed in my last hour reading about it.

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.2469/faj.v64.n5.7?journalCode=ufaj20

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.192.7439&rep=rep1&type=pdf

https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/staff_reports/sr484.pdf

What Drives the S&P 500 Inclusion Effect? An Analytical Survey on JSTOR

https://www.nber.org/digest/nov13/w19290.html

What Drives the S&P 500 Inclusion Effect? An Analytical Survey | Semantic Scholar

They cover ideas of increased arbitrage and volatility. Correlation vs causation of the inclusion effect. How much of the inclusion effect would have happen anyway because the company was going well enough to get included. How much is due to increased awareness of the company? The historical SP inclusion effect (which from my reading is about 5%). Whether the effect is permanent or not.

I am in the Valley of Despair on the Dunning Kruger Effect on this topic. Of course no-one knows how it is going to affect TSLA but personally I am putting a lot more value to the research on this topic, and less on what happened with the Saudi PIF, which I think had a lot of other factors at play. Also I am not sure the effect is permanent as per the research. Also I would call <5% insignificant, in a non-mathematical sense of the word.

So personally I am expecting anywhere from 0-10% bump with a likely 5% bump. Outside this range I will be surprised.

Feel free to reply with your reasoned out estimate... we will know soon enough the actual figure for TSLA and see who is closer then, although even then it is hard to tease out the effect from S&P inclusion from the sustained profits which got them included in the first place.

 

[FrankSG]

In case anybody is interested. New strike prices just got released for Jan'22 options. All the way up to $790!

 

[Words of HABIT]

I think the whole S&P inclusion point is much less important than people realise. If it is something like 3% - this is something we see every day in the Tesla stock.

Totally disagree. There are an enormous amount of funds managing billions each that set self imposed restrictions to help ensure steady gains and reduce risk. Example, no stock can be more than 5% of overall fund. One major restriction on many funds is that they can only invest in S&P companies. Once TSLA is listed on S&P, these fund managers will grab the 5% maximum allocation in a heartbeat.

I remember Canadian darling Nortel Networks (it had a market cap of $100B in its prime, now BK) in the late '90s. At the time I was an inexperience newby and only invested in mutual funds. Had TD Waterhouse mutual funds in Oil & Gas (ug!), Heath and Science, Technology, Green Initiatives and Manufacturing to cover all basis. Guess which mutual fund carried the max 5% holding in Nortel? All of them. Repeat, ALL of them carried the maximum 5% limit for Nortel. The reasoning is that mutual funds (and other funds) compete against other similar funds with their peers. If one fund picks up a high flyer and has elevated returns, competing firms have no choice but to add it for fear of losing their market share to a competitor. It all comes down to overall rate of return and funds compete fiercely to be at the top of the list and their customers demand it.

I don't expect S&P inclusion until Q4 F'20, however whenever it happens, the net effect on TSLA will be a huge gap up.

 

[jeewee3000]

Limit order after SP is over $420, should execute at $420, no?

No because you don't know what selling orders are placed. Let's say stock goes to $425 and you place your limit order to buy @ $420,00.

Then the buying tapers off and the stock drops to around $420,18. Some long that wants to take profits puts in a limit sell order @ $419,99 and BOOM, it triggers your order.

So buying at exactly $420 is more luck than anything

 

[elasalle]

Covering my 410 call at the open

At this pace even my (few) Jan 17 460 Covered Calls are beginning to warm up. ...
When I closed my Jan-June options a few weeks back, I left these puppies for dead

 

[Unpilot]

Is anyone else like?

 

[Fact Checking]

Limit order after SP is over $420, should execute at $420, no?

Stop order says it is likely to execute at significantly different price. Do you mean a stop limit order?

I still feel like I should just go with a limit order after $420 has been breached. If it never dips below $420 again, and it never executes, it won't be the end of the world.

Stop-limit triggered on the ask will get the right limit order activated - of course in principle there's no guarantee that the price will come back to $420 again.

 

[MABMAB]

Perhaps the headlines of imminent crash were really dash, the editors just changed spelling

 

[Runarbt]

Is anyone else like?


View attachment 490582

I should be watching The Expanse season4 - but this is much more fun. (checking twitter, TMC and waiting for Nasdaq to open)

 

[elasalle]

Anyone provide a paper version of Stock purchased, for 420 SP buy ?... a paper copy would be worth framing.