Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[sparcs]

WANT 24/7 ACCESS TO JIM CRAMER?

no

 

[Thekiwi]

No you’re way off base here. Technical Analysis is an excellent tool for predicting stock prices, when it works. You’ll know if it works by comparing what happened with the prediction.

 

[Buckminster]

Had an ice breaker at work the other day, where we were supposed to say our hobbies...

I literally couldn't think of anything other than driving my Model 3, admiring my Model 3, reading Tesla forums, and watching TSLA while wishing I had more money to invest.

Tesla is all consuming!

Don't worry - all perfectly normal. The real question is how to find time to go to work. At what point does sitting around 9 to 5 chatting with your work buddies about Tesla become the hobby?

 

[winfield100]

It is my understanding that the "mark-to-market" losses (or gains) are the net short position. As such it doesn't matter that some shorts make out like bandits (e.g., any of them smart enough to close when the stock was down in the dumps) its that the short position, in aggregate, is behind that much.

Put another way, those "losses" are the amount of money tied up in maintaining that short position.

@humbaba
So, essentially, shorts as of time of that messageg earlier today, have mounting losses of at least $8.173 Billion.
I fail to understand how brokerages allow these losses to climb, without saying "show me the money"
It's mysterious somewhat.
I thought shorts had to keep a lot of $$$ in brokerages to cover these (mostly)

 

[Joe F]

WANT 24/7 ACCESS TO JIM CRAMER?

Pass.

 

[Tslynk67]

Waiting for the big push down, but not sure it's going to happen... Fascinating!

Nice close!!

 

[Tim S]

Just placed a limit buy order at 400, to get back the shares I sold at 402 yesterday. I don't mind if it never fills

Looks like my buy wall held. Missed it by about 20 cents. You're welcome everyone!

 

[Thekiwi]

This is great. I've seen more than one bear talk about the fact that car sales are down in China, BEV sales are down in China, and of course Tesla is going to be suffering as a consequence. They don't seem to figure in the possibility that BEV sales are down in China BECAUSE Tesla stopped selling its USA Model 3, pending deliveries of the MIC3. Which I believe is playing a role.

I just saw $410 holy cow!!!

I was under the understanding a large portion of sales in China up until half way through this year were glorified golf carts being produced to harvest the government EV subsidy. Then China basically reworked the subsidy criteria this year which caused those “EV” sales to collapse.

 

[LJS22]

Awesome week guys! Everyone enjoy their holidays

 

[mongo]

And GREEN at the close

 

[sparcs]

Is next week expected to be pretty slow with the holiday?

 

[winfield100]

Doing my teeny tiny part 4 the cause
""......
Buy 1 Shares Stop $420.69
Limit $420.69 Expires on 02/18/2020 3:59 PM 12/20/2019
OPEN
Reinvest Dividends: Change Cancel
l....."

 

[lklundin]

I can read these stories all day long.

Alex on Twitter

This is just Alex copying Fact Checking's post here, one or two days ago
- With Fact Checking providing the link to the actual story.

 

[Fobble]

Come on man, don't let the shorties get us down!

(Seriously though, as long as the SP closes over 400, I will be satisfied... for now ;-)

Wish granted. Closed: 405.59

 

[humbaba]

@humbaba
So, essentially, shorts as of time of that messageg earlier today, have mounting losses of at least $8.173 Billion.
I fail to understand how brokerages allow these losses to climb, without saying "show me the money"
It's mysterious somewhat.
I thought shorts had to keep a lot of $$$ in brokerages to cover these (mostly)

The law requires assets to cover the short with a buffer. The brokerage may require more (IIRC Schwab has a ~70% requirement). For retail shorts this can be an issue, but a large short is going to have a lot of assets for collateral and in practice will never be margin called. consider, if a short is 5% of the account then they would be fine (no margin call) even if they were required to have 1000%.

Which is why I don't much stock in margin calls. Sure, that happens to retail shorts -- but they don't have a large enough position to move anything. The shorts with that size of a position have enough other investments to keep their short for as long as they want. And, with the losses being only on paper, they can keep them forever or cover as they want.

Now, if you are managing money like that your boss may want to know why the $TSLA short has gone from 1% to 5% of the account, but again, that isn't really a margin call.

 

[wipster]

Woo hoo, that's the way you do it! Money for nothing and your chicks for free! A new record to end the week!

 

[CanadaEV]

That figure is for if they were to have completely closed out of their short positions at the closing price last night without causing the price to go up. In other words, their loses will likely be much higher unless they can close out in a very slow orderly process.
Shoot, more than 10% of their loss is borrow fees.

Nasdaq posts the identity of major shareholders, but I haven't seen any identity info for shorts. I may just not know where to look.

Baring reliable information to the contrary, I believe the main resources shorting Tesla are the very big interests - Big Oil, Legacy Auto, and perhaps even deep state interests who can only continue to survive on 'business as usual'. The $billions in short interest losses are insignificant to some of these entities compared to profits they have realized in the past, and hope to win by 'disrupting the disruptor'.
However, you can't fight reality. The future is the future, the past is the past.

 

[humbaba]

WTF! There were ~1.1M shares traded in the last minute? That's like 7% of the day's trades right there. That was a serious amount of action.

 

[MP3Mike]

@humbaba
So, essentially, shorts as of time of that messageg earlier today, have mounting losses of at least $8.173 Billion.
I fail to understand how brokerages allow these losses to climb, without saying "show me the money"
It's mysterious somewhat.
I thought shorts had to keep a lot of $$$ in brokerages to cover these (mostly)

By law you they have to have a minimum of 125% of their short exposure on hand. The broker can set that higher if they feel like it. (I think E*TRADE has it at 150% right now.) So the brokerages don't really care if you are burning your money or not, they get their cut of it.

Does it seem weird that short interest has stayed very tightly in the $8-10 Billion range?

This is from a few months ago but maybe you missed it: The Tesla Conspiracy... or Am I a Dead Whistleblower? - EVTV Motor Verks

The idea is that these aren't actually losses it is money spent to allow them to keep profiting from the fossil fuel investments they have longer.

 

[humbaba]

Nasdaq posts the identity of major shareholders, but I haven't seen any identity info for shorts. I may just not know where to look.

Baring reliable information to the contrary, I believe the main resources shorting Tesla are the very big interests - Big Oil, Legacy Auto, and perhaps even deep state interests who can only continue to survive on 'business as usual'. The $billions in short interest losses are insignificant to some of these entities compared to profits they have realized in the past, and hope to win by 'disrupting the disruptor'.
However, you can't fight reality. The future is the future, the past is the past.

Shorts are not required to disclose their positions. Just yet another imbalance in favor of short sellers. But too much light would be impairing for the SEC, analysts and financial media