Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[engle]

Only 3 ups?

/*
* post118179.c - Predicts TSLA 12/31/2019 closing price
*/
#include <stdio.h>

int main()
{

printf("The market is closed on the first day of the new decade, so only one up was missing.\n");
printf("TSLA will close > 1% or +/- 1% each of the last 4 trading days of 2019!\n");
printf("TSLA will spike up on the open Monday driven by GF3 delivery ceremony and analyst upgrades.\n");
printf("The high for the week will be >= $450. Closing price returned by main().\n");
return(448);​

}

 

[Steve m]

Now I can sleep tonight

yea right.. me too

 

[The Accountant]

TSLAQ
When I speak to family and friends, most of them have never heard of TSLAQ and the FUD they spew (they get their FUD from the MSM). A few members on this forum get very angry when they see the TSLAQ garbage. I used to be that way too; but now I read TSLAQ for a good laugh. No lie -my wife will often ask me, "what are you laughing at"?

Please join me in laughing at TSLAQ; here are some recent good ones:

 

[Artful Dodger]

Measuring software in LOC is what people did in 1970.... this shows the state of management in VW and how out of touch with software they are.

Lol, heard this in the '80s:

"Once you've written 50,000 lines of FORTRAN, the original problem is no longer important."​

Cheers!

 

[TradingInvest]

One way to read that post is out loud, using the voice of the main character from the movie 300.

But still, the fact is, Tesla will never single-handedly replace every single ICE vehicle on the planet. There are too many out there and there is not enough time, due to the climate crisis clock ticking away. It's going to require all the automakers to switch to EV. Remember, even the largest automaker on the planet only has what, around 10% world market-share. Tesla, less than 1% currently. We all hope it gets to 5%, maybe 10% some day. But that still leaves 90% of the rest.

Sure, some automakers are going to go out of business in the next 10 years. There will be chaos, some consolidation, and a shuffling of the remaining players on the field.

Tesla's goal, to be true to its mission and to its investors, should be to execute brilliantly, always focused on accelerating the whole world to switch to EV however fast it can, however best it can.

If nobody else produces smart phones, I have no doubt Apple could single-handedly supply all the smart phones to the whole world.

If nobody else does retail, Costco can handle all the retails in the world.

If nobody else produce EVs, Tesla can supply and replace all the vehicles in the world. Two conditions have to be met to make it happen: Tesla's EVs have to be better and cheaper than ICE vehicles, and there has to be enough natural resources to build so many EVs.

Right now Tesla is quite close to meeting those conditions. I don't agree with the notion that Tesla can not supply so many EVs single-handedly. If Tesla can build one factory in one year, they could build 10 in two years, or build 100 in four years. It all depends on the two conditions I listed.

Anything that prevents Tesla from getting profit will slow down Tesla's mission.

 

[RubberToe]

The US government will not allow Tesla 100% market share of US Autos.

Triply so for foreign markets.

The German government will not allow VW to fail.

The French government will not allow Renault to fail.

The Japanese government will not allow Toyota to fail.

Rivian, Lucid and other startups don't support the status quo.

Have a look at this, especially the "destruction" part...


Creative destruction - Wikipedia

 

[engle]

Thanks! My faves are "misaligned rear wheel axis" and of course the German professor. Germany is just *slightly* biased against TSLA! I hope these ignoramuses don't really believe their own b.s. Kind of feel sorry for them... Never seem to experience any happiness or enjoyment out of their lives. "Wasted days and wasted nights posting $TSLAQ FUD."

TSLAQ
When I speak to family and friends, most of them have never heard of TSLAQ and the FUD they spew (they get their FUD from the MSM). A few members on this forum get very angry when they see the TSLAQ garbage. I used to be that way too; but now I read TSLAQ for a good laugh. No lie -my wife will often ask me, "what are you laughing at"?

Please join me in laughing at TSLAQ; here are some recent good ones:



View attachment 494272

View attachment 494274

View attachment 494275

View attachment 494276

 

[woof]

int main()
...

printf("The high for the week will be >= $450. Closing price returned by main().\n");
return(448);​

Alas, the exit value of a C program in POSIX is only the last 8 bits, even though the return value from main() is an int. I hope you aren't saying the closing price will be $192!

Exit status - Wikipedia

 

[Remster32]

Our members opinions aside, is anyone seeing any lists or consensus of analyst's P&D estimates? Really wondering what they are expecting.

I don't have access to every firm's reports and many don't provide their delivery estimates in their reports but here is what I could come up with. From this data set, they're sticking with the 360k guidance. I assume most other sellsiders are around here as well.

Q4 2019 Deliveries Estimates

Firm

Wedbush

Credit Suisse

RBC

JMP

Deutsche Bank

Morgan Stanley

Average

[TD2] Model 3 [/TD2][TD2] Model S&X [/TD2][TD2] Q4 Total [/TD2][TD2] FY19 Total [/TD2] [TD2]85,535[/TD2][TD2]19,270[/TD2][TD2]104,805[/TD2][TD2]360,366[/TD2] [TD2]85,200[/TD2][TD2]19,000[/TD2][TD2]104,200[/TD2][TD2]359,761[/TD2] [TD2]86,000[/TD2][TD2]19,000[/TD2][TD2]105,000[/TD2][TD2]360,561[/TD2] [TD2]88,000[/TD2][TD2]17,300[/TD2][TD2]105,300[/TD2][TD2]360,861[/TD2] [TD2]87,535[/TD2][TD2]19,304[/TD2][TD2]106,839[/TD2][TD2]362,400[/TD2] [TD2]n/a[/TD2][TD2]n/a[/TD2][TD2]104,439[/TD2][TD2]360,000[/TD2] [TD2] 86,454 [/TD2][TD2] 18,775 [/TD2][TD2] 105,097 [/TD2][TD2] 360,658 [/TD2]

 

[engle]

Lol, heard this in the '80s:

"Once you've written 50,000 lines of FORTRAN, the original problem is no longer important."​

Cheers!

Okay let's go further off-topic since the U.S. markets are still closed:

BASIC = Beginner's All-Purpose Symbolic Instruction Code
FORTRAN = FORmula TRANslation
C = comes after B
C++ = C + 1 (with objects, since it also compiles C)
Java = Java coffee from Indonesia - Sun Microsystems, Inc. inventor James Gosling's favorite brew. Originally named "Oak" after a tree outside his window in Mountain View, CA. Then Green (trees leaves are green?). I guess nobody ever accused Gosling of being creative except when it came to designing a new ubiquitous programming language. ;-)

 

[Ratanpara]

Nobody said otherwise.



Nobody said otherwise.



Tesla has always been true to their mission. Not Tesla’s fault no other established OEM had any desire to get on the mission train. Not Tesla’s fault no other established OEM felt inspired. And it’s not Tesla’s job to self-sacrifice for other established OEMs.

Quit trying to make Tesla responsible for other established OEMs not getting their heads out of their asses. Tesla showed the world what an EV can be and continues to do that every single day.

As a Tesla investor, I want Tesla to annihilate every single established OEM without exception simply by continuing on the path they’ve chosen. No need to go out of their way, OEMs doing it to themselves.

As a human on this planet: ditto.

As a human on this planet, I welcome new EV car companies as long as they don’t Tesla bash as proof they are for all of us and not just themselves.

As a human on this planet, we’re already up the creek without a paddle. I’m only left with hope we somehow manage to pull a rabbit out of our hat. In the meantime, I’d welcome an unhealthy relationship with a disgusting amount of money curtesy of TSLA.

Tesla is misunderstood company by ICE manufacturers, they think to complete with Tesla all they need to do is slap a battery on exiting cars and its good enough to complete with Tesla, if they don’t offer competing level of safety and electronic people won’t buy EV, Chevy Bolt has failed level volume with decent spec.

 

[JustMe]

I don't have access to every firm's reports and many don't provide their delivery estimates in their reports but here is what I could come up with. From this data set, they're sticking with the 360k guidance. I assume most other sellsiders are around here as well.

Q4 2019 Deliveries Estimates

Firm

Wedbush

Credit Suisse

RBC

JMP

Deutsche Bank

Morgan Stanley

Average

[TD2] Model 3 [/TD2][TD2] Model S&X [/TD2][TD2] Q4 Total [/TD2][TD2] FY19 Total [/TD2] [TD2]85,535[/TD2][TD2]19,270[/TD2][TD2]104,805[/TD2][TD2]360,366[/TD2] [TD2]85,200[/TD2][TD2]19,000[/TD2][TD2]104,200[/TD2][TD2]359,761[/TD2] [TD2]86,000[/TD2][TD2]19,000[/TD2][TD2]105,000[/TD2][TD2]360,561[/TD2] [TD2]88,000[/TD2][TD2]17,300[/TD2][TD2]105,300[/TD2][TD2]360,861[/TD2] [TD2]87,535[/TD2][TD2]19,304[/TD2][TD2]106,839[/TD2][TD2]362,400[/TD2] [TD2]n/a[/TD2][TD2]n/a[/TD2][TD2]104,439[/TD2][TD2]360,000[/TD2] [TD2] 86,454 [/TD2][TD2] 18,775 [/TD2][TD2] 105,097 [/TD2][TD2] 360,658 [/TD2]

Thank you digging that up. I’m surprised at how narrow the range of their predictions is. Almost as if they all just assume that Tesla will meet yearly guidance but barely and with an end of the year panic.

 

[EVNow]

So a profit in Q1 is unlikely. Not impossible, just unlikely. They can play with Chinese deliveries a bit to generate volume in Q1 and may also time Fiat payments to help the income statement. Who knows, they have surprised us before

You cannot make a quantitative statement based on qualitative assessment.

BTW, two things that can determine profitability that you didn’t mention.

$500 Million in FSD revenue that can be recognized after City NOA release. FCA payments.

 

[shootformoon]

So the most knowledgeable auto analyst (a.k.a Adam Jonas from MS) doesn't even provide a breakup of S3X like his peers? I am shocked by his analysis style again.

I don't have access to every firm's reports and many don't provide their delivery estimates in their reports but here is what I could come up with. From this data set, they're sticking with the 360k guidance. I assume most other sellsiders are around here as well.

Q4 2019 Deliveries Estimates

Firm

Wedbush

Credit Suisse

RBC

JMP

Deutsche Bank

Morgan Stanley

Average

[TD2] Model 3 [/TD2][TD2] Model S&X [/TD2][TD2] Q4 Total [/TD2][TD2] FY19 Total [/TD2] [TD2]85,535[/TD2][TD2]19,270[/TD2][TD2]104,805[/TD2][TD2]360,366[/TD2] [TD2]85,200[/TD2][TD2]19,000[/TD2][TD2]104,200[/TD2][TD2]359,761[/TD2] [TD2]86,000[/TD2][TD2]19,000[/TD2][TD2]105,000[/TD2][TD2]360,561[/TD2] [TD2]88,000[/TD2][TD2]17,300[/TD2][TD2]105,300[/TD2][TD2]360,861[/TD2] [TD2]87,535[/TD2][TD2]19,304[/TD2][TD2]106,839[/TD2][TD2]362,400[/TD2] [TD2]n/a[/TD2][TD2]n/a[/TD2][TD2]104,439[/TD2][TD2]360,000[/TD2] [TD2] 86,454 [/TD2][TD2] 18,775 [/TD2][TD2] 105,097 [/TD2][TD2] 360,658 [/TD2]

 

[Remster32]

Thank you digging that up. I’m surprised at how narrow the range of their predictions is. Almost as if they all just assume that Tesla will meet yearly guidance but barely and with an end of the year panic.

Yeah guidance for the year vs. estimates will have much more variance the earlier in the fiscal year it is. You had analysts all over the place earlier in the year. Looking one quarter out with the better than expected Q3 quarter, I'm not surprised that there's a small range around the 360k number.

This is good though! There's room for Tesla to beat here.

 

[PeterJA]

Another concise and entertaining video from Steven Mark Ryan:

 

[Remster32]

So the most knowledgeable analyst in MS(a.k.a Adam Jonas) can't even provide a breakup of S3X like his peer? I am shocked by his analysis style again.

He definitely has an estimate built into his model but analysts rarely share everything that goes into it. Keep in mind, I would say it's 50/50 to whether an analysts even breaks down deliveries in their reports. Some analysts only state their P/D estimates after the quarterly results. Not trying to defend the guy, I'm not impressed by his reports on Tesla either. But just some perspective.

 

[Artful Dodger]

But still, the fact is, Tesla will never...

You think too small. A 10% global share might have been a sufficient goal for Elon's 2006 Secret Master Plan, but foot-dragging by ICE incumbents has hardened his thinking.

SMP was over 13 yrs ago. Incumbents have not begun to produce EVs in any signifcant volume. Do not ignore Elon's 2019 statement about new productions goals for Tesla:

• 20 Million EVs per year capacity
  
• 2 TWhrs of bty storage

With the 5x usage multiplier provided by FSD, those 20M Teslas/yr replace 100M ICE /yr. So 10 years at full tilt retires the worldwide ICE fleet of 1B vehicles. Anything over 90% is a win, in terms 2050 climate goals. Elon's new plan will get this done by 2040.

Meanwhile, 1 TWhr/yr of stationary storage (charged by solar+wind) effectively de-carbonizes the electrical grid. The world will be rescued from climate disaster dispite the best efforts (and over the protests) of Big MAC (Money-Auto-Carbon)

CLEARLY, Elon intends to do this. You need to adjust to the new reality at Tesla. The time of inaction is over, the future starts now.

 

[JustMe]

Yeah guidance for the year vs. estimates will have much more variance the earlier in the fiscal year it is. You had analysts all over the place earlier in the year. Looking one quarter out with the better than expected Q3 quarter, I'm not surprised that there's a small range around the 360k number.

This is good though! There's room for Tesla to beat here.

That’s an excellent point, Tesla could solidly beat all analyst expectations.

Of course, if any of these so-called analysts had been reading TMC, they’d have a better insight in what to expect in the next P&D report

 

[Causalien]

Lol, heard this in the '80s:

"Once you've written 50,000 lines of FORTRAN, the original problem is no longer important."​

Cheers!

LOL

Haven't programmed for a while. Been working on automating certain tasks in my life. Now, the original problems were solved after 1 month, but 10k lines later, I just made it a self replicating, self re-compiling virus...