Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[engle]

Alas, the exit value of a C program in POSIX is only the last 8 bits, even though the return value from main() is an int. I hope you aren't saying the closing price will be $192!

Exit status - Wikipedia

It is legal to return 448 since it fits in an 'int'. It is up to the parent process that forked & executed the child to retrieve it:

"In Unix and other POSIX-compatible systems, the parent process can retrieve the exit status of a child process using the wait() family of system calls defined in wait.h. [6]. Of these, the waitid() [7] call retrieves the full 32-bit exit status, but the older wait() and waitpid() [8] calls retrieve only the least significant 8 bits of the exit status." - Wikipedia​

I'm using waitid(), while you are using the classic wait() or waitpid(), so we are both correct!

The max TSLA price my code can return is $2,147,483,647 per share, which is a market capitalization of approximately $386,547,056,460,000,000 or $386 Quadrillion 2019 dollars. That is only about 297,000 times more than APPL is today.

Given the exponential growth of TSLA in several markets over enough time and enough inflation, AND if the planet is still habitable, AND if the 99% have not overthrown the 1%, then I predict we will reach this level before 2,200 A.D. It represents an average compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of +12.68% over 180 years. Assuming the average generational rate in my family is 30 years and none of them sell my stock, TSLA can reach this price in only 6 human generations: Great-Great-Great-Great-Great-Grandkids.

Almost makes we wish I was a Wall $treet $tock Analist so I could upload this crap on April 1st, 2020 and have Fox Business publish it as guidance!

Russ

PS. I reserve the right to revise my remarks to correct the math I did in my head.

 

[Mike Smith]

Subscribe to read | Financial Times

'Panasonic says it has resolved a labour shortage that has hampered production efficiency at the “gigafactory” in Nevada, its joint-venture electric battery plant with Tesla.'

'Originally designed to be able to produce the equivalent of 54 gigawatt hours a year, it is only now finally nearing 30GWh.'

“For us to move to [54GWh] should not be so hard. We now have the knowhow to do it in quite a high volume environment,” said Mr Swan.

 

[sparcs]

Thank you digging that up. I’m surprised at how narrow the range of their predictions is. Almost as if they all just assume that Tesla will meet yearly guidance but barely and with an end of the year panic.

Isn't that pretty much the delivery consensus here too that Tesla will meet the bottom end of the yearly guidance? I've seen a range of a few thousand more than the lowest end of the yearly guidance posted here, but nothing wildly past that.

 

[Mike Smith]

Chinese delivery has to start spooking shorts. I would hate to be on the wrong side of this momentum and news...

Marketwatch: Tesla delivers first cars made at China gigafactory

CNBC: Tesla begins deliveries of China-made Model 3 cars

Bloomberg: Tesla Just Delivered Its First China-Built Cars in Shanghai

Reading through these and other articles, I think the majority of the media don't know that Shanghai has produced much more than 15 cars.

 

[Artful Dodger]

The max TSLA price my code can return is $2,147,483,647 per share, which is a market capitalization of approximately $386,547,056,460,000,000 or $386 Quadrillion 2019 dollars. That is only about 297,000 times more than APPL is today.

So the 3 horsemen of Musk Industries (Tesla, SpaceX, Boring) are going Asteroid Mining?

NASA planning mission to an asteroid worth $10,000 quadrillion

"And they shall be known as X.com"​

Cheers!

 

[RobStark]

Says you.

First, nobody said anything about Tesla having 100% market share.

No government you mentioned can force its citizens to buy vehicles they don’t want. So unless your precious OEMs start delivering EVs that people want AND can afford, don’t hang your hat on your best guess of what you think is going to happen.

Rivian and Lucid have yet to manufacture anything, in any significant quantity. You keep touting them, and hopefully they can survive, but until they actually start pumping out tens of thousands of vehicles a quarter, and people buy them, and love them and the vehicles prove reliable, and economical, and, and, and, you might want to be a bit less confident about their place in the future.

What happens to Tesla market share if Tesla destroys all the competition and Rivian and Lucid don't turn into anything?

Governments can heavily stack the deck and produce desired outcomes.

Why doesn't Tesla have any significant market share in Japan? Despite making a better car than anything made in Japan? Tesla doesn't have significant market share in South Korea despite being there for years.

Why doesn't Tesla have significant premium auto market share in India,Brazil, and Indonesia? Because governments can effectively prevent their populations from buying Teslas.

 

[JustMe]

Isn't that pretty much the delivery consensus here too that Tesla will meet the bottom end of the yearly guidance? I've seen a range of a few thousand more than the lowest end of the yearly guidance posted here, but nothing wildly past that.

I expect over 370k. That’s not wildly high but it would be a solid beat of their estimates.

 

[Dutchie]

Another green start of the day in Frankfurt

Tesla Aktie (A1CX3T,TSLA,US88160R1014)

 

[RobStark]

Have a look at this, especially the "destruction" part...


Creative destruction - Wikipedia

That is a theory.

In practice no non communist government has ever allowed a monopoly in autos, not even a regulated one.

It is completely asinine to suggest Germany,France,Japan, and China will allow Tesla to become a monopoly in their countries, i.e. to destroy the competition.

 

[GaryW]

The US government will not allow Tesla 100% market share of US Autos.

Triply so for foreign markets.

The German government will not allow VW to fail.

The French government will not allow Renault to fail.

The Japanese government will not allow Toyota to fail.

Rivian, Lucid and other startups don't support the status quo.

I’m old enough to remember when the US government was never going to let the US television manufacturing industry to fail.

Someone, possibly a Chinese manufacturer, will license the VW brand and build factories in Europe. Like Braun licensed it’s name here in the US.

 

[Steve m]

Okay let's go further off-topic since the U.S. markets are still closed:

BASIC = Beginner's All-Purpose Symbolic Instruction Code
FORTRAN = FORmula TRANslation
C = comes after B
C++ = C + 1 (with objects, since it also compiles C)
Java = Java coffee from Indonesia - Sun Microsystems, Inc. inventor James Gosling's favorite brew. Originally named "Oak" after a tree outside his window in Mountain View, CA. Then Green (trees leaves are green?). I guess nobody ever accused Gosling of being creative except when it came to designing a new ubiquitous programming language. ;-)

C is pdp 11/70 assembly language for humans.

Python because Monty needed a good language.

 

[RobStark]

I’m old enough to remember when the US government was never going to let the US television manufacturing industry to fail.

Someone, possibly a Chinese manufacturer, will license the VW brand and build factories in Europe. Like Braun licensed it’s name here in the US.

RCA and Zenith didn't build Democracy's Arsenal.

Germany's position in the world is based on its auto industry.

It is how it affords a generous welfare state and bailouts of other European countries.

It is why consumers pay a premium for German made products from pencils to vacuum cleaners.

Autos isn't horse carriages, smart phones, nor televisions.

It is much more significant part of the economy.

Germany isn't Sweden and VW isn't Volvo.

 

[kengchang]

According to the media who was at GF3 delivery event, production rate is 28/hour for 10 hours a day for 5 days a week and 1 day for training.
Early next year will start with two shifts.

Currently MIC Model 3 is 30% locally sourced. Targeting 70% by mid year and 100% by EoY.

 

[sundaymorning]

For those of us who are out of the loop on pop culture, this image broke the internet today, look who’s hanging with the Kardashians.

Why is he hanging with the Kardashians? This video might help, first hip hop video featuring Cybertruck.

Lots of viewers and comments on both photo and video.

 

[Electroman]

When I speak to family and friends, most of them have never heard of TSLAQ and the FUD they spew (they get their FUD from the MSM). A few members on this forum get very angry when they see the TSLAQ garbage

That is correct. I expressed the same sentiment in this post: Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable

Among the entities that is expected to gain by Tesla's downfall - Shorts, WS Analysts, Legacy autos /UAW/NADA/BigOil/Russians & MSM - it is MSM that is causing the maximum damage, fueled by the money funneled by other vested interests.

 

[Mike Smith]

According to the media who was at GF3 delivery event, production rate is 28/hour for 10 hours a day for 5 days a week and 1 day for training.
Early next year will start with two shifts.

Currently MIC Model 3 is 30% locally sourced. Targeting 70% by mid year and 100% by EoY.

Well that would be 1400/wk .. and doubling next week with the extra shift?

Hilariously, Selina Wang at Bloomberg earlier today said: "Elon Musk expected 1000 cars /wk produced at Shanghai by the end of the year - clearly that's not going to happen." A few hours later she's reporting that they've achieved over 1000/wk with no mention of what she said earlier.

 

[Mike Smith]

Tesla Gigafactory 3 Output Almost at 2K a Week, All Finished MIC Model 3s Already Sold

 

[dakh]

Every option grant I have received, given, or heard about in 30 years in Silicon Valley were in shares, not dollars.

For sure you are getting shares, what else can you get. But if you had two job offers from two companies, one with 10000 shares worth $10K at current valuation and another with 1000 shares worth $20K at current valuation, same vesting schedule, which would you pick? The point is, number of shares is just a number, it can be anything as long as it's not so bad that you want fractions. Meaningful information is, you are getting a slice of the pie, what is its exchange value?

 

[sundaymorning]

5 reasons Tesla will join the S&P 500 in 2020 by @DaveT

thanks Dave, keep it coming.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

first hip hop video featuring Cybertruck.

This is what the haters don't understand. Nobody makes a video like that with a ford mondeo in it. Tesla do not *need* to advertise. That means they win or profit margins, even without anything else.