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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Singer3000
Member
This is all true but it arguably says less about Tesla’s future market share ceiling than it does about the tidal wave that might swamp the German state in the next decade. If a lowly car startup from California can cause this much trouble, what would the trillion euros of Target 2 balances do if Italy defaults on them in the coming years?
Will be fascinating to see how state intervention plays out in the auto industry this decade. I too expect it to play a major role in the story. But a modern state can’t force consumers to buy a far inferior domestic product over a far superior foreign owned alternative for very long. Unless you think it realistic to go back to autarky and nationalisation of the means of industrial production, governments are going to have to be a bit smarter.
On this note, several posters have speculated that a whale has driven up TSLA this quarter, with guesses as to who ranging from the google guys to a post Aramco IPO Saudi PIF. I don’t recall anyone here so far linking the run up to the 12th Nov Giga 4 announcement, since when we’ve gained $80. Surely everyone knows that VW stands for Volkswal
I cannot argue against that. Btw, I am so sorry for my typo, software is supposed to have few _defects_.
dc_h
Active Member
I’ll look forward to more solid data. This could be max run rates, not steady. 28 per hour may be done once and then they review processes, or segments of the line each run at 28 per hour, but not the full plant. I hope it’s true, but I don’t know how they could supply parts at that rate. Currently batteries and seats and other unknown parts are coming from the USA. Sounds like local seats are starting now. We don’t know precisely when local cells will be available and when the pack assembly systems will start. Battery’s by March seems likely. Do we know if the stamping press is live? That seemed installed early, so I’d think it’s online. Assume paint shop is open too, so even at 30% local parts, much more local value is being added onsite.
And Ada was invented by Tommy Shelby's sister, in the twilight of her life when the company had fallen apart and gangsters had gone out of fashion.
This is small news, but lines up nicely with Tesla's expansion to the rest of Europe.
Estonia's government has after a long pause restarted its credits program for EVs. The upper cost limit for the EV is 50k, the credit is 5k and the car has to travel 80k km in four years to be eligible. The whole program is only 1,2 mil euros, but it's something at least. We used to have a credit system back in 2014 that covered 50% of the cost of the EV, but not more that 17k eur. After it ended, sales of EVs dropped to essentially zero.
This piece of legislation didn't pass without a little Tesla related drama. Initially the credits were meant only for cars purchased through local dealerships, which would have excluded Teslas. Thankfully a local Tesla car rental business owner/TMC member submitted proposals for amendments which were accepted in full.
Source in Estonian:
Ka Tesla ostjad saavad nüüd 5000-eurose stardiraha
Estonia's government has after a long pause restarted its credits program for EVs. The upper cost limit for the EV is 50k, the credit is 5k and the car has to travel 80k km in four years to be eligible. The whole program is only 1,2 mil euros, but it's something at least. We used to have a credit system back in 2014 that covered 50% of the cost of the EV, but not more that 17k eur. After it ended, sales of EVs dropped to essentially zero.
This piece of legislation didn't pass without a little Tesla related drama. Initially the credits were meant only for cars purchased through local dealerships, which would have excluded Teslas. Thankfully a local Tesla car rental business owner/TMC member submitted proposals for amendments which were accepted in full.
Source in Estonian:
Ka Tesla ostjad saavad nüüd 5000-eurose stardiraha
Panasonic ramping Gigafactory up to 54GWh
To build its team, Panasonic recruited chemical engineers from non-battery sectors and trained them to handle lithium-ion batteries. Now it has 3,000 people who operate the machinery and about 200 technical assistants from Japan to keep the plant running 24 hours a day, 365 days a year. “For us to move to [54GWh] should not be so hard. We now have the knowhow to do it in quite a high volume environment,” said Mr Swan. Securing engineers is a critical step as Tesla plans to use batteries produced at the US gigafactory for its Model Y sport utility vehicle when it launches next summer, according to people with knowledge of the plan.
To build its team, Panasonic recruited chemical engineers from non-battery sectors and trained them to handle lithium-ion batteries. Now it has 3,000 people who operate the machinery and about 200 technical assistants from Japan to keep the plant running 24 hours a day, 365 days a year. “For us to move to [54GWh] should not be so hard. We now have the knowhow to do it in quite a high volume environment,” said Mr Swan. Securing engineers is a critical step as Tesla plans to use batteries produced at the US gigafactory for its Model Y sport utility vehicle when it launches next summer, according to people with knowledge of the plan.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
I found an interesting piece of information about the layout of GF3 while browsing photos of today's GF3 delivery ceremony, a GF3 blueprint on the sweatshirt of one of the employees:
If we zoom in on that factory floor plan, we can see interesting details, not previously disclosed AFAIK:
Edit, found a sharper one:
Labeled with my guesses:
The "sweatshirt leak" seems to confirm the earlier layout, that the stamp shop is a shared facility. This should speed up the Model Y construction work in 2020.
If we zoom in on that factory floor plan, we can see interesting details, not previously disclosed AFAIK:
Edit, found a sharper one:
Labeled with my guesses:
- The current "Model 3" factory is the lower left quadrant of the factory plan.
- We can see the "mirrored" approach of doubling the production lines - speculated to be "Phase 3" "Model Y" lines (marked "Phase 2" in the image below), in the upper left quadrant of the factory. It clearly has another paint shop, body shop and assembly line.
- The stamp shop (square building in the middle area) is not duplicated for the Model Y.
- The "Battery Workshop" (also rumored to host motor production) is in the upper right quadrant.
- There's a mystery building in the upper left quadrant (the most distant corner), which doesn't appear to be similar to any of the existing facilities. Seat factory? Semi production? Cell factory?
The "sweatshirt leak" seems to confirm the earlier layout, that the stamp shop is a shared facility. This should speed up the Model Y construction work in 2020.
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HG Wells
Martian Embassy
Mike Smith
Active Member
Right. If no one buys the cars, the only way for a government to save the company is to pay the salaries for everyone to sit around and play pinochle. GaryW’s scenario is more likely.
Wow, what I’d really like to know is what happened between planning 35Gwh when complete and now producing 54Gwh in just 1/3 of the planned footprint. I guess that is what battery day is for.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Tesla is installing a 2nd Grohmann machine for pack assembly at GF1 on an upper floor. It makes sense that Panasonic will also add cell lines in the same way, without needed to expand the building's footpring. Automation/decrease of humans workers required makes all this posible.
P.S. TSLA following the macros in the Pre-market.
Mike Smith
Active Member
Tesla delivered 685 cars in the Netherlands yesterday. Yes, that would be on a Sunday.
One cannot argue with your second paragraph. Your fourth paragraph is absolutely wrong. India is anxious to move away from fossil fuels. Brazil has substantial BEV incentives through reductions in import duties and yearly auto license taxes in major States. Indonesia shares another trait with the other two.
All Tesla vehicles are too wide and long to be acceptable for the vast majority of sales in all the countries you list, with the least affected one being South Korea. Were Tesla to build narrower and shorter vehicles they would find receptive markets in most of these countries. For India and Indonesia, especially, purchase price would need to drop by >50 % from present levels.
it is very popular for US citizens to blame import restrictions for failure of US products that are: always too big (even toothpaste and soaps), usually too crude, and designed for oversized US tastes. Import restrictions are also important but those are not the base problem. US automakers have proven that for dozens of years. They have been successful when they have designed their products where they are used. Recent examples: Buick Envision, Ford Fiesta, Ford Transit ( multiple versions all sell well).
In my view Tesla understands this perfectly well. In both China and Germ any they have now or are building design centers that will certainly concentrate on more appropriate sizes. In the meantime...
No currently produced Tesla can park easily in any major Japanese city because none will fit in the car parking equipment, among other things. Anybody who has driven a Tesla in most European city centers knows just how cumbersome it is (FWIW I just drove a Model X for a couple of weeks around Northern Italy and elsewhere. Try parking in Lugano, Milan, or almost anywhere else!).
It is irritating to have people say repeatedly that import restrictions are the issue when the real problem is inappropriate design. Model 3 works well in more spacious EU areas and for use as taxi and such. Just imagine when the next, as yet undescribed, model arrives that us much smaller, especially narrower, than Model 3. It will help that the bees model will be cheap too. That one will dominate the ‘pocket rocket’ category from all corners on the world except the US of course. Even Canadian cities and Mexico like those. Margins will be great too.
FWIW, I have owned pocket rockets myself in five countries. As investors and Tesla vehicle fans, this category and the more mass lower spec versions will be the transformative ones. They also spawn, often on the same platforms, the minivans (cargo and passenger) that often outsell their sedan/hatch/suv variants.
All of those are produced in local factories worldwide, as they will be fir Tesla too.
Again, I don’t want to be rude, but import restrictions have little to do with the mass market, mostly because almost all large countries have enough scale to do local assembly/manufacturing locally anyway.
The main reasons are size and a reliable transit system. If you own a car in Japan, you need to have off-street parking for it. Off-street parking large enough for any Tesla is hard to come by. The smaller Model 2, when it becomes available, will have a good chance in Japan--if it's small enough.
dhrivnak
Active Member
As much as I hate FUD I dislike overly optimistic projections as well. Despite the headline the article says production is an impressive 1400 cars/week which is quite a bit away from 2000.
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