What happens to Tesla market share if Tesla destroys all the competition and Rivian and Lucid don't turn into anything?
I said I *want*. I *want* Tesla to kill them all. That’s different than what is likely to happen.
Somebody will survive. Not sure which somebody. Might be more than one. Won’t be all and won’t be all who’ve had government backing to this point in their history.
I’ve no idea anymore than you if Rivian or Lucid make it, but you’ve been talking like it’s a done deal they will make it, along with Bollinger.
Starting a car company and turning it into a successful business isn’t any easier now than it was the day Tesla was conceived, so stop giving them the benefit of the doubt and talking as though they’ll exist 5 years from now and be pumping out as many vehicles as Tesla.
They all have to get over all the manufacturing and efficiency and pricing and logistics and battery supply and economics etc... hurdles that Tesla has and continues to. Rivian, Lucid, Bollinger, Neuron et al... haven’t even begun to be car manufacturers.
Governments can heavily stack the deck and produce desired outcomes.
No doubt they can try.
The people are getting tired of being poisoned and dying prematurely and seeing their planet implode. Thus we see governments providing EV incentives.
The fact remains, though, governments still can’t make people buy vehicles they don’t want. OEMs still need to provide EVs that are compelling, reliable, safe, practical, fun, useful, etc... AND that can be made PROFITABLY. Tesla is making it impossible for others to compete. That’s not even up for debate.
Why doesn't Tesla have any significant market share in Japan? Despite making a better car than anything made in Japan? Tesla doesn't have significant market share in South Korea despite being there for years.
Why doesn't Tesla have significant premium auto market share in India,Brazil, and Indonesia? Because governments can effectively prevent their populations from buying Teslas.
Or more likely because Tesla is already keeping busy doing a thousand different things and are simply taking the path of least resistance to accelerate their mission.
When they run out of Gigafactories to build, and their manufacturing of batteries and vehicles and stationary storage and solar roofs can keep up with demand, Tesla will be free to tackle Japan and India and wherever else there might be holdouts.
I suspect, though, that any barriers Tesla currently might be facing in certain regions of world will long since have fallen by the time Tesla has caught up with their organic demand.
A virus doesn’t have to attack the whole to make its host sick. Cancer doesn’t have to attack every organ to kill. An army doesn’t have to attack on all fronts to win a war. Tesla doesn’t have to succeed in all markets to crush ICE making OEMs and ridiculously dominate the market or multiple markets.
You’re problem is that you simply can not conceive of a company laying a solid foundation in multiple trillion dollar industries and organically turning itself into an empire because it’s never been done before. You think all the past and present checks and balances will prevent it from happening.
You’ve got a better than average chance of being right. I think you’re very wrong. I think something really special and unique is happening, the likes of which humanity has never seen.
