Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Quick maths: With 14K Models 3+Y per week (the installed capacity of the Schuler stamping press), and 64KWh avg per pack (50/50 mix of SR/LR), Tesla's Fremont factory uses just 45.4 GWh/yr of bty packs.

With Panasonic's new stated goal of 54 GWh/yr, that leaves ~9GWh/yr spare capacity for new products like Megapack, Semi.

Based on Panasonic's speed to install the first 13 lines at GF1, I predict they could have all that new capacity online by end of 2020.

Cheers!

P.S. I suspect that 54 GWh/yr figure is based on the old chemistry, and may well be exceeded with the current chemistry, or...

P.P.S. ...alternately, it may be the case that Panasonic now has 35 GHh/yr capacity with 13 lines, and plans to add just 7 more to reach 54 GWh/yr capacity at GF1/Sparks. In which case I revise my time estimate to 7 mths.

P.3.S. It could also be that some GF1/Sparks capacity will be used at GF4/Berlin until their bty workshop is operating.

 

[Beltsbear]

Well, Tesla has chosen a ridiculous price for Supercharging in Iceland. :Þ

First Supercharger in Iceland opening!

Not sure why it's so high, but I sure hope they update it later. :Þ

The rate is within the expected range. Demand charges are a thing, and the cost of the build out. I would be surprised if they broke even after three years.

 

[jerry33]

The stock nearly went up every day for the last 20 days and momentum had clearly slowed yesterday. This looks like profit taking to me. It doesn’t take much weight to tip the scales at times like these.

Unless you have big losses this year, absolutely need the money, or expect a much higher income next year, wouldn't the normal time to take profits be in the new year?

 

[Christine69420]

P.S.A.

Reminder that Frankfurt is closed today for New Year's Eve so there will be no Pre-market trading for TL0 in Germany.

So another noob question - if Frankfurt is closed where are the prices coming from updating the TSLA page at NASDAQ?

Tesla, Inc. Common Stock (TSLA) Real-Time Stock Quote - NASDAQ.com

I know there are a couple of hours with pre- and after-trading at NASDAQ and the graph reflects this. But I thought the rest of the time this page shows prices from Frankfurt. But since they change today I must be wrong. So where do we get prices from before the pre-trading window is open?

 

[RubberToe]

Does Germany’s Vaunted Car Industry Have Long to Live? Opinion | Does Germany’s Vaunted Car Industry Have Long to Live?

Calling @RobStark

RT

 

[Artful Dodger]

where are the prices coming from updating the TSLA page at NASDAQ?

Tesla, Inc. Common Stock (TSLA) Real-Time Stock Quote - NASDAQ.com

Uh, from NASDAQ? Quotes on this page are delayed 15 min, so they becomes available starting at 04:15 am, New York time:

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Pre-Market Trading

Cheers!

 

[BenPrice]

In a romantic world Tesla would follow in the steps of VW.

Dec 31: SP pushed down 3-5%, short positions grow

Close price: $396

Jan 1: No fundamentally altering news Or trading

Close price: $396

Jan 2: Radio silence from anything official, short positions continue to grow, somewhat accelerated with flip of quarter financials, continued weakness in SP movement - 1-3% decline.

Close price: 390

Jan 3: Delivery announcement is made, exceeding expectations. SP up 5-10%.

Close price: 419

Jan 6: announcement from accumulator - “China/Saudi/Whoever has taken a ?% stake” - most satisfying if VW or a relative is involved.

Close price: 461

Jan 7: intraday ATH >500, close 5% below Jan 6.

The mini-squeeze.

Possible due to growing short positions, reduced float, and strength of the results.

Close price: 440

*No, it isn’t exactly VW. But the “squeeze” also isn’t anywhere near the same magnitude. VW/Porsche was a bloodbath and an airtight squeeze. This would simply be scraping off the barnacles who are overgreedy for a substantial drop in share price.

 

[Beltsbear]

So another noob question - if Frankfurt is closed where are the prices coming from updating the TSLA page at NASDAQ?

Tesla, Inc. Common Stock (TSLA) Real-Time Stock Quote - NASDAQ.com

I know there are a couple of hours with pre- and after-trading at NASDAQ and the graph reflects this. But I thought the rest of the time this page shows prices from Frankfurt. But since they change today I must be wrong. So where do we get prices from before the pre-trading window is open?

There is pre market trading at the NASDAQ. TSLA is trading now.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Jan 6: announcement from accumulator - “China/Saudi/Whoever has taken a ?% stake” - most satisfying if VW or a relative is involved...

|SQUEEZE|

While its certainly possible, the Options Market has definately not priced in that possiblity. I trust one of the Options Players here on this forum will alert us if there is unusual activity in the Options Market.

Cheers!

 

[KarenRei]

The rate is within the expected range. Demand charges are a thing, and the cost of the build out. I would be surprised if they broke even after three years.

Iceland having among the most expensive Supercharging in Europe despite having among the cheapest residential prices in western/northern Europe, and among the cheapest industrial rates in the world, is not "within the expected range". Nor are demand charges unique to, nor abnormally expensive in, Iceland.

 

[samppa]

Iceland having among the most expensive Supercharging in Europe despite having among the cheapest residential prices in western/northern Europe, and among the cheapest industrial rates in the world, is not "within the expected range". Nor are demand charges unique to, nor abnormally expensive in, Iceland.

So how much is that? And how does it compare to say ccs charging cost tgere?

 

[KarenRei]

So how much is that? And how does it compare to say ccs charging cost tgere?

All of this is covered in the other thread:
First Supercharger in Iceland opening!

 

[RobStark]

Does Germany’s Vaunted Car Industry Have Long to Live? Opinion | Does Germany’s Vaunted Car Industry Have Long to Live?

Calling @RobStark

RT

Her conclusion is yes.

Her conclusion isn't that all/almost all Germans will be using public transport/Tesla robotaxis in the future with VW,Daimler and BMW dead.

Seeing massive challenges ahead requiring lots of hard work is part of the German character.

"Morning in America" sunny optimism the next Century is always an American Century isn't a thing in Germany. The anti-car green party got 8.9% of the vote in the last German federal elections.

 

[SageBrush]

Noob question --
Is the P&D first reported at the Tesla investor news site, or perhaps somewhere else ?

 

[Christine69420]

A short video from Bjørn Nyland about airport charging. And a view of the mix of EVs Norwegians drive.

 

[mongo]

Noob question --
Is the P&D first reported at the Tesla investor news site, or perhaps somewhere else ?

Investor site Investors Overview | Tesla, Inc., then here 5 second later by reference.

 

[mad474]

@RobStark, thx for summary.

But concerning:

The anti-car green party got 8.9% of the vote in the last German federal elections.

We're not anti-car, we're pro-EV!
Benziner? Diesel? – Elektromobilität!

 

[Unpilot]

Pre-Market looks a little frosty.

Not much volume though...could just be toothbrush boy selling his last few shares.

 

[winfield100]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opin...bcd4-24597950008f_story.html#comments-wrapper

My comment:

Hum, hard to counter fear and ignorance.

I worked my way up from private @ $98 a month, during the Vietnam era, to sergeant. Utilized the GI Bill, earned my degree, climbed from second lieutenant to major angering academy snots. Retired after twenty years to support my wife’s successful career.

Will my Model X, will the thousands of trees I have planted, will the solar panels on our roof, or will my eating vegan solve, slow down climate change, or convince the author to join me? Bottom line, NO ~ but I am giving my grandchildren a fighting chance.

Anyone selling themselves can speak and live like the author; me, I’ll keep putting one foot in front of the other thinking of more than just me, myself or I.

@DragonWatch
I read the WaPo article by Charles Lane. I vaguely recall he may be member of “Manhattan Institute”.[yes it seems]{Is There A Public Pension Crisis? | Manhattan Institute} (Will check later) a bunch of right wing reactionary radicals for the status quo, years ago seemed to hate renewables (which disrupted revenue streams from utilities), now EV’s which disrupt other fossil fuel revenue streams.
They either fail to see the future, or see it and it terrifies them as their income streams become disrupted.

 

[Navin]

Bear trap. Let’s see if we get a 420.69 close.