Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

How much will this cost VW?

Not enough so long as they can stay in business and then still not enough. There is no monetary value that can make up for what they did. Ever.

 

[EVNow]

My tampered expectations is that by the end of Q1 we’ll be producing 1,960 Model 3s a week consistently if we’re lucky. This is likely why Elon stated Q1 will likely be tough, achieving the theoretical output will be a Hail Mary. I think a likely scenario is that we get to sustained output of 1,000/week by end of 1st Q.

For Q1 the basic questions is
- How much will the demand be compared to Q4 (for Fremont cars)
- How of that shortfall will GF3 fulfill

My optimistic guess is
- 20k less from Fremont of which 10k will be made up by GF3. So, if Q4 is ~105k, Q1 '20 will be 95k.
- 200M FCA (and other) credits, up from ~135M in Q3.
- 200M profit from deferred revenue with City NOA is released in Q1
These would be enough to get to profitability in Q1 - and S&P 500 inclusion - if 2 of the above 3 come through. Assuming flat margins.

 

[sundaymorning]

I might as well put it here before you guys pick this up from the media. Introducing the new Tesla killer. It’s a one seater and goes for $18k on a 100 mile range. I saw this at a mall in LA.

All jokes aside, I think this can do well in crowded urban cities where parking is scarce (NY city, Tokyo, etc.). It could be a niche vehicle if the price comes down a bit. I was expecting 200 miles range but wasn’t surprise to hear 100 despite how small and compact it was. If China can replicate this and bring the price tag down to $5-7k it could have a shot in 3rd world countries, and may eventually overtake the moped.

 

[Krugerrand]

Yeah, no crap. We all know you can't watch a movie on the screen while driving.

Then why even mention it in your post?!

You can argue theory all you want, I like to live in reality where these actions have jeopardized the move to self driving and Tesla's share price. By your logic Tesla should disable the hands on wheel requirement too. I'm not the one putting these abuses on Tesla's shoulders, it's the media, politicians (like what's his name from MD) etc. that have done so.

By caving to the will of media and politicians, by insisting Tesla bow to the will of media and politicians, by not encouraging individuals to be responsible for their own actions, it is YOU who jeopardizes the move to self driving and Tesla’s share price.

That’s reality.

My logic is that Tesla is doing just fine with their approach; any, all or no mistakes withstanding and regardless if I personally agree or not.

Case in point:

Elon tweets funding secured, $420 etc.... ‘OMG! End of the world!

Elon takes a puff of a blunt and doesn’t even inhale and claims he has no use for pot because it doesn’t help productivity— OMG!! End of the world!!!

Franz, throw the steel ball at the window. *crack*. Do it again! *crack* — OMG!! End of the world!!

Yet those three *mistakes* combined have catapulted Elon and Tesla to a whole other level of awareness such that I’d argue, not mistakes after all. OMG!! Not the end of the world!!

Funny how things can work out.

This whole AP/EAP nonsense too shall pass.

 

[humbaba]

Tesla says will start delivering China-made Model 3s to public on Jan. 7

Tesla is expected to start deliveries to the public at the Shanghai factory by January 7th. Here’s what we know:

Tesla executives also told reporters the plant had achieved a production target of 1,000 units per week, or around 280 cars a day, and that sales for the China-made sedan had so far been "very good".

So far, Tesla has stated its able to achieve 28 M3/hour at maximum output (if nothing goes wrong), on a 10 hour shift they can theoretically achieve 280 m3 on a perfect day with every employee working as efficiently on the 8th hour as they would on the 1st hour of production (this is a bit unrealistic). So from January 1st (the Chinese doesn’t celebrate Western new year, so I assume they worked on January 1st) to January 7th, theoretically Tesla should be able to produce 1,960 Model 3s.

My tampered expectations is that by the end of Q1 we’ll be producing 1,960 Model 3s a week consistently if we’re lucky. This is likely why Elon stated Q1 will likely be tough, achieving the theoretical output will be a Hail Mary. I think a likely scenario is that we get to sustained output of 1,000/week by end of 1st Q.

Somehow you took

Tesla executives also told reporters the plant had achieved a production target of 1,000 units per week, or around 280 cars a day, and that sales for the China-made sedan had so far been "very good".

and got

Tesla has stated its able to achieve 28 M3/hour at maximum output (if nothing goes wrong), on a 10 hour shift they can theoretically achieve 280 m3 on a perfect day with every employee working as efficiently on the 8th hour as they would on the 1st hour of production (this is a bit unrealistic).

First, according to Reuters, the Tesla executives said, "1000 per week" which they reduced to 280 cars per day and you further reduced to 28 per hour. While maybe its all the same to you, it isn't. Tesla never said, 28 per hour.

Second, they never said it was "maximum output (if nothing goes wrong)." You put that negative spin there. It was in the context of a "production target." If you think that Tesla is only aiming for 1,000 per week then you are ignoring that that target is just one in a series. Surely you don't believe they are planning on only ever producing 1000 per week? Tesla isn't planning that low.

I will grant you that hitting the production target doesn't mean much. It isn't stated if it was a week long run or one hour. You are implicitly relying on the latter which is far more negative, but you don't have anything to back up that negative sentiment. Sure, Tesla may have been using an extrapolated weekly run rate -- but it seems rather unlikely that they'd use a short run of an hour to do so. Most likely it was a full shift, but we don't really know and its best to stick with what we know and not spin it negatively (or positively). But there is also no information as to how much of a spike it was from prior production to hit the target. If they had a consistent 900 unit weekly run rate then hitting the production target on a single shift is notable, but it also isn't that much of a stretch.

You could try to compare previous production quarters at other plants where there was a reported "hit a production target" and what the production rate for the quarter actually worked out to. That won't be perfect -- Shanghai is not Fremont -- but it is better than just making something up.

At the least you need to account for it being a three-shift factory that is currently running a single shift. If Tesla needed to improve the run rate they could open more shifts. Most likely the limiting factor there is having enough trained workers, but you can get an idea based on how long they spent getting the single shift trained up.

Maybe you're just trying to keep your own expectations down, but spreading erroneous quotes with a negative bias is not helpful.

 

[dc_h]

Tesla says will start delivering China-made Model 3s to public on Jan. 7

Tesla is expected to start deliveries to the public at the Shanghai factory by January 7th. Here’s what we know:

Tesla executives also told reporters the plant had achieved a production target of 1,000 units per week, or around 280 cars a day, and that sales for the China-made sedan had so far been "very good".

So far, Tesla has stated its able to achieve 28 M3/hour at maximum output (if nothing goes wrong), on a 10 hour shift they can theoretically achieve 280 m3 on a perfect day with every employee working as efficiently on the 8th hour as they would on the 1st hour of production (this is a bit unrealistic). So from January 1st (the Chinese doesn’t celebrate Western new year, so I assume they worked on January 1st) to January 7th, theoretically Tesla should be able to produce 1,960 Model 3s.

My tampered expectations is that by the end of Q1 we’ll be producing 1,960 Model 3s a week consistently if we’re lucky. This is likely why Elon stated Q1 will likely be tough, achieving the theoretical output will be a Hail Mary. I think a likely scenario is that we get to sustained output of 1,000/week by end of 1st Q.

The key for ramping above 1000 per week seems to be local battery and possibly seat production. They were targeting 10,000 battery packs per week by end of year and 15,000 a week from Sparks in 2020. It didn’t sound like they were over 10,000 weekly packs. If they can sustain over 1000 a week now it implies Sparks is hitting another new production level. Exciting news for 2020 would be 50GW from Sparks as LG and CATL production starts in China. That would imply Tesla thinks they can significantly raise production in Fremont even as Shanghai ramps up. Getting past 10,000 cars a week in Fremont would be amazing for margins.
Hate to get my expectations too high, but they really seem to be executing very well. Hope we get out of this end of quarter push in 2020. I assume it may be needed to hit profits for S&P inclusion. After that it seems to serve no long term purpose. For now, let’s just hope for 106k plus for Q4.

 

[sdtslafan]

Just got email from Motley Fool saying BUY TESLA.

 

[hobbes]

As much as I love a bullish price target, why in the world do people pay attention to these folks?

People pay attention because other people pay attention. Self fullfilling prophecy, like technical analysis..

(ducks)

 

[MP3Mike]

Latest update from S3 on TSLA short interest:

Short Interest (S.I.) in USD ($): $11,584,597,250

S.I. (% of float) 20.69%

It seems that they have broken the ~$10 billion dollar line that has appeared to be a "limit" in the past...

 

[Krugerrand]

The hedonic treadmill at work.

People just never happy or satisfied, always got to be something to moan about.

Can be positive if applied constructively; like Elon not being satisfied with something in his company or product and striving to make it better.

 

[Sparky4life]

Then where is the need for NHTSA to investigate anything when a human makes an error like this, which is not too uncommon?

Tesla AP or FSD do not do red lights at all, so there should be nothing to investigate. FSD with HW3 in the latest release only has a preview where it only indicates lights, but does nothing with it yet, so there is really nothing to investigate. The driver ran through a red light, this caused the very unfortunate accident, the driver and the driver only screwed up.

Typically, for ADAS (driver assist) systems, regulators inverstigate accidents like this in order to verify that the ADAS system did not prevent the driver from taking over (unintended accelleration, no response to driver takeover commands). So, this kind of investigation is not unusual.

 

[Dylan]

Does anyone know why the production and deliveries announcement is limited to vehicles? At this point I’m just as curious about their developments in the energy business.

 

[Buckminster]

SpaceX already plans this, sort of.

You are thinking by analogy, not first principles.

Elon Musk on Twitter

This is the relevant thread:

VTOL Supersonic aircraft

~0% chance any of Elon's companies will make an air taxi.
~100% chance that he will build a (probably supersonic) airliner.

He has mentioned it more than any other potential product. I think he will not partner - aerospace companies are ripe for disruption just as auto OEMs were/are.

 

[Nocturnal]

Then why even mention it in your post?!

Because cell phones and tablets exist and sometimes people use them to watch movies.

By caving to the will of media and politicians, by insisting Tesla bow to the will of media and politicians, by not encouraging individuals to be responsible for their own actions, it is YOU who jeopardizes the move to self driving and Tesla’s share price.

That’s reality.

My logic is that Tesla is doing just fine with their approach; any, all or no mistakes withstanding and regardless if I personally agree or not.

Case in point:

Elon tweets funding secured, $420 etc.... ‘OMG! End of the world!

Elon takes a puff of a blunt and doesn’t even inhale and claims he has no use for pot because it doesn’t help productivity— OMG!! End of the world!!!

Franz, throw the steel ball at the window. *crack*. Do it again! *crack* — OMG!! End of the world!!

Yet those three *mistakes* combined have catapulted Elon and Tesla to a whole other level of awareness such that I’d argue, not mistakes after all. OMG!! Not the end of the world!!

Funny how things can work out.

This whole AP/EAP nonsense too shall pass.

Sorry, but you are objectively wrong. Those mistakes have cost the company quite a bit of share value over the years and have decreased public trust in FSD tech. Just because it wound up being "ok" doesn't mean it wasn't a negative effect. You are being hyperbolic in your other statements. Nobody said any of that was the end of the world, but that doesn't mean that was ideal. Tesla survived the 420 buyout thing, was that a good or bad event for the company? My criteria for success is higher than "doing just fine".

I've stated the facts. If you think Tesla shouldn't have or should not implement any changes that's your prerogative. The fact that they already instituted an additional safety measure after that guy crashed into a firetruck while sleeping suggests that it's not a good idea to be hands off. Heck, even publications have ranked Tesla AP lower than Cadillacs because of the eye monitoring they use. I can yell until I'm blue in the face that that I disagree with that, but that's how things work.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Does anyone know why the production and deliveries announcement is limited to vehicles? At this point I’m just as curious about their developments in the energy business.

Energy is just barely re-ramping after canning all the door-to-door sales people. Gonna be another calendar year until we'll want to highlight growth and market share.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I bet there's a FSD technical thread in which two knuckleheads can rant back and forth all day.

 

[Nocturnal]

Energy is just barely re-ramping after canning all the door-to-door sales people. Gonna be another calendar year until we'll want to highlight growth and market share.

I am interested to see how battery deployments have grown. That increase in the AU battery alone should be noticeable right? Assuming they were able to book that revenue to 2019 of course.

I bet there's a FSD technical thread in which two knuckleheads can rant back and forth all day.

I'm done. When I'm insulted I respond. ​

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

Just punched through 430.

 

[hobbes]

Has a starting date for Germany's incentives been announced?

Supposedly it is still in the process to be approved by the EU.

 

[KarenRei]

Exxon-Mobil Australia's social media team is run by idiots.

Nafnlaus on Twitter