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For Q1 the basic questions is
- How much will the demand be compared to Q4 (for Fremont cars)
- How of that shortfall will GF3 fulfill

My optimistic guess is
- 20k less from Fremont of which 10k will be made up by GF3. So, if Q4 is ~105k, Q1 '20 will be 95k.
- 200M FCA (and other) credits, up from ~135M in Q3.
- 200M profit from deferred revenue with City NOA is released in Q1
These would be enough to get to profitability in Q1 - and S&P 500 inclusion - if 2 of the above 3 come through. Assuming flat margins.

Tesla said they don’t anticipate Model Y interference with s3x production. Wouldn’t you think it more likely they lower the price, if demand weakens in q1, rather than cut production?
 
Typically, for ADAS (driver assist) systems, regulators inverstigate accidents like this in order to verify that the ADAS system did not prevent the driver from taking over (unintended accelleration, no response to driver takeover commands). So, this kind of investigation is not unusual.
The difference is that only one gets media attention.
 
Somehow you took

and got

First, according to Reuters, the Tesla executives said, "1000 per week" which they reduced to 280 cars per day and you further reduced to 28 per hour. While maybe its all the same to you, it isn't. Tesla never said, 28 per hour.

Second, they never said it was "maximum output (if nothing goes wrong)." You put that negative spin there. It was in the context of a "production target." If you think that Tesla is only aiming for 1,000 per week then you are ignoring that that target is just one in a series. Surely you don't believe they are planning on only ever producing 1000 per week? Tesla isn't planning that low.

I will grant you that hitting the production target doesn't mean much. It isn't stated if it was a week long run or one hour. You are implicitly relying on the latter which is far more negative, but you don't have anything to back up that negative sentiment. Sure, Tesla may have been using an extrapolated weekly run rate -- but it seems rather unlikely that they'd use a short run of an hour to do so. Most likely it was a full shift, but we don't really know and its best to stick with what we know and not spin it negatively (or positively). But there is also no information as to how much of a spike it was from prior production to hit the target. If they had a consistent 900 unit weekly run rate then hitting the production target on a single shift is notable, but it also isn't that much of a stretch.

You could try to compare previous production quarters at other plants where there was a reported "hit a production target" and what the production rate for the quarter actually worked out to. That won't be perfect -- Shanghai is not Fremont -- but it is better than just making something up.

At the least you need to account for it being a three-shift factory that is currently running a single shift. If Tesla needed to improve the run rate they could open more shifts. Most likely the limiting factor there is having enough trained workers, but you can get an idea based on how long they spent getting the single shift trained up.

Maybe you're just trying to keep your own expectations down, but spreading erroneous quotes with a negative bias is not helpful.

Based on my own experience of “he said/she said” during the early days of the Model 3 ramp I won’t believe anyone until it shows on the financials. We have so oftentimes exaggerated production ramp in the past by taking words of executives and Elon out of context that I’m inclined to be conservative this time around. Did the Tesla executive say “we’ve produced 1,000 a week last week” using past tense? Or was it “at a rate of 1,000 per week?”

Judging from Elon’s lack of enthusiasm in his leaked email, telling employees to ignore the stock price and instead negating to state “we are at record” or “near record deliveries” (which he has so oftentimes done in the past) has me questioning why? With my position at 90% in tesla I’ll be ecstatic to be wrong, but the M3 ramp at Fremont and playing the “he said/she said” game isn’t credible anymore.

Tesla Shanghai reportedly making 1,000 cars per week

For the entire Q4 we saw about 540 M3 parked at Shanghai factory, which is expressive enough for me. If we did in fact produced 1,000/week we should have seen drone footage of at least 4x that amount base on incremental output since they were holding back deliveries.
 
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Energy is just barely re-ramping after canning all the door-to-door sales people. Gonna be another calendar year until we'll want to highlight growth and market share.

you think it’s another full year?
not hat it matters long term but i thought we’d see some growth this year in that line item. was hoping to see 500mm rev at some point this year.

then, from there, some surprises for anyone not paying close enough attention
 
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For the entire Q4 we saw about 540 M3 parked at Shanghai factory, which is expressive enough for me. If we did in fact produced 1,000/week we should have seen drone footage of at least 4x that amount base on incremental output since they were holding back deliveries.

???
They were shipping the finished cars off site.

Tesla Model 3 Spotted on Car Carriers in Gigafactory 3 Premises Ahead of China Deliveries

Exclusive: Tesla Gigafactory 3 Photos Hint at Impending Mass MIC Model 3 Deliveries

https://ww.electrek.co/2019/12/09/tesla-gigafactory-3-ramps-up-model-3-production-sales/
 

Yea that’s a possibility, but I also recall photos of a large amount of transport vehicles showing up at once to clear out the Shanghai lot. I take that as the day they decided to contract the delivery guys and also happened to be after the news of tax credit approval from China has cleard. There wasn’t much report or footage of trucks showing up on a daily basis to ship before tax credit approval.
 
Tesla said they don’t anticipate Model Y interference with s3x production. Wouldn’t you think it more likely they lower the price, if demand weakens in q1, rather than cut production?
Possibly. But what would that do to margin & profit ?

For eg. if they lower the price by $2k and reduce the margin by 2 pp - they will make less money even if they sell 10k more cars.
 
All big tech name seems fully valued but there are always individual stock with long term positive outlook, one name interest me Ticker CREE, Silicon Carbide wafers, thing that I don’t know about is , what kind of gross margin in this business ? cree has history of being in low margin semiconductor business, They sell their product to Tesla which is good but on other end all other EV makers are not keeping with Tesla, Eventually Silicon carbide business will be huge.
 
Here’s the statement from the Shanghai director?


A production director told Global Times China that production is already exceeding 1,000 Model 3 cars per week:

Song Gang, production director of the Tesla Gigafactory 3, said that the factory produces 28 or more Model 3s every hour and works about 10 hours each day, which means that it produces more than 1,000 cars each week. He added that the factory will be able to produce 3,000 cars per week “in the near future.””

I don’t want to post articles from Electrek but what the h3ll:

Tesla announces Gigafactory 3 is already producing 'more than 1,000 Model 3/week' - Electrek

Don’t get me wrong this isn’t bad news at all. To me this is expected news that we’re doing what we’re suppose to in Shanghai, I’ve heard Elon warning us way too many times about the “speed of the ramp” to automatically jump to the conclusion that we’re already producing 1,000 a week without hiccups.
 
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I thought this was a Tesla and Tesla investment thread. This Roth/IRA etc. talk may be important to some but is not directly relevant to this thread in my opinion. Especially to those outside the US. Didn't want to mention this a few pages back, expected it would've stopped by now but still seems to be going on.

Suggest we change the topic to the F5ing that commences very shortly instead?
 
I bet there's a FSD technical thread in which two knuckleheads can rant back and forth all day.

1) The discussion isn’t really about FSD, technical or otherwise and in fact included a direct discussion about TSLA SP being effected
2) I know I wasn’t ranting
3) Feel free to address me by my real fake Internet name, I’m happy to own and wear my own sugar, how about you?
 
1) The discussion isn’t really about FSD, technical or otherwise and in fact included a direct discussion about TSLA SP being effected
2) I know I wasn’t ranting
3) Feel free to address me by my real fake Internet name, I’m happy to own and wear my own sugar, how about you?

im a ranter (although not at the forum, more the street and media), that wasn't rant.
 
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