Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SMAlset]

Thank you Tesla employees. You're taking us to new heights.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

A wise moderator once said, and this might not be the direct quote but the sentiment is correct, to catch up on reading the thread before posting so as to avoid duplicate postings.

Good luck catching up on reading the thread, we are posting faster than a person can read

 

[Todd Burch]

So we're in the squeeze right now aren't we?

I don't think so. Still so many shares shorted from much lower levels. Shorts of TSLA are missing a few screws, or enjoy masochism. Or both.

 

[Don TLR]

So did Tim Seymour cover yet, would love to hear the mutterings in the back room of CNBC right now.

 

[Prunesquallor]

I see 1.5 million shares bought in 5 minutes?

 

[Artful Dodger]

S/X deliveries of 19.5k are fantastic, because they did this with just a single shift AFAIK

Lol, that single shift didn't do any Deliveries; they did the Production (17,933 S/X).

Whole lotta shortin' goin' on today... they had to reset their defences at $440, now they've fallen back to $450 but the seige engine is rollin' up to the castle moat.

Cheers!

 

[ambudriver03]

367k deliveries in 2019.

TSLA to 450! Woo.

 

[Singer3000]

I wonder how many Cowen clients still have shorts on based on Jeffrey Osborne's "analysis". Perhaps with this new information he'll raise his price target another $20 to $230.

“Moron of the Month” goes to Mr Osborne

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Yikes. So much for algo pressure.

 

[StealthP3D]

So now that S&P inclusion is moving into the highly likely category this just seems insane. How do you add what could soon be a $100 billion company to the index? I guess we’ll find out this year.

It will be disruptive to add such a monster to every SP500 index fund in the world.

I love disruption!

 

[AudubonB]

A serious note: As I've divulged before, when I departed Wall St in the mid-90s for the safety of backwoods Alaska, I also gave away almost all my money. Didn't need it - no wife; no family.

Stuff Tesla happened. (Wife & family, too). As staggering to me as it can be, as of a few moments ago I now have more assets than I ever got rid of. Gracious.

 

[jbcarioca]

I think you are misinterpreting this: the reason they only made ~1,000 cars in Q4 at GF3 was to reduce cash consumption: at ~$45k ASP they'd have cost of goods of around $30k per unit, so these 1,000 units are already using up ~$30m of cash.

There was very little reason to consume more cash in Q4, with 112k deliveries they probably knew it in early December already that they'll meet 360k guidance without any GF3 contribution, instead they demonstrated burst capacity of both equipment and their first shift at GF3 to beyond 3k/week throughput (which is amazing), trained their workforce, made the first ~1,000 units and are going to scale up their supply chain and their second shift in Q1 and hit 3k/week and beyond, and deliver most of the cars in Q1.

I wouldn't be surprised to see 20k production out of GF3 in Q1, maybe more.

Absolutely, but almost certainly more. We suspect they were constrained due to seats (just ramping up in China) and batteries (LG has some and CATL was pending for unstated reasons) although they apparently do have pack capacity already.

I predict there will be ~22,000 from GF-3 Q1 with sales >23,000. (The extra will be P etc exported from US)
Less will surprise me, a little more will not. People keep thinking this is analogous to initial Model 3 ramp up. Nothing could be further from the truth.

 

[Zaxxon]

That was a remarkably quick jump from tree-fiddy to fo-fiddy.

How long to fie-fiddy?

 

[DragonWatch]

I love victory when charging right up the middle and your height challenged.

 

[Nocturnal]

What a nice morning. Although it was funny watching it go from 450 to 445 after the record breaking quarter was announced but TSLA gonna TSLA I guess.

On the macro side, this Iran business might wind up messing with gas prices.

 

[kbM3]

Cricket chorus. The more interesting reaction will be the MMs who wrote all those $450 Call that are gonna be ITM about 30 mins from now...

Wrong! It was 15 min.

 

[Artful Dodger]

the only real negative I see (Fremont M3 production growth wasn't that great

Model 3 Production at Fremont in 2019:

Q4:86,958 / Q3:79,837 = +8.9% QoQ (or +35.7% annualized)

Just what would you call great?

Cheers!

P.S. Macros are recovering. NASDAQ-100 has regained half of what it gave up at today's Opening.

 

[Dwdnjck]

Musk gets paid at fie fiddy.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

That's some hefty profit taking, 10 points from the top already. I'm expecting it will soon resume the climb.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

That was a remarkably quick jump from tree-fiddy to fo-fiddy.

How long to fie-fiddy?

Lunch?

Dan