Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

A serious note: As I've divulged before, when I departed Wall St in the mid-90s for the safety of backwoods Alaska, I also gave away almost all my money. Didn't need it - no wife; no family.

Stuff Tesla happened. (Wife & family, too). As staggering to me as it can be, as of a few moments ago I now have more assets than I ever got rid of. Gracious.

That’s the essence of zen. To get the cookie, you must leave the cookie. To attract money, you must not be attached to money.

 

[Zaxxon]

Congrats to the longs today. For me, the best part of today's numbers is that they're just the tip of the iceberg; 2020 will be crazy fun.

A couple of learnings from our analysis leading up to today:

• We were spot-on with the 83k estimate
• Several of us read far too much into production ramp breadcrumbs on a ramping line, as we collectively always do. Tesla's tidbits on production are always, always, always, always non-representative. When they mean 'we are consistently producing 1k/week on one shift,' they will say 'we are consistently producing 1k/week on one shift.'

 

[ZachF]

Everyone that shorted st $225 or under a few months ago has a more than 100% loss

 

[Krugerrand]

How much does this feel like a win?

 

[ZeApelido]

This whole nuanced "buy and hold" strategy really works!

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

We've been through this here last week. A TSLA market cap of $100B would put it at #50 currently of the 505 equities listed on the S&P 500.

Was there a post on how common it is for a company to enter that high? At least I'm assuming it's higher than most new companies in the index.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Everyone that shorted st $225 or under a few months ago has a more than 100% loss

Oh darn...hate it for them.

Dan

 

[Unpilot]

Somebody posted last week the stock would be up,up,up...hmm what Oracle was that?

 

[Pezpunk]

This whole nuanced "buy and hold" strategy really works!

exactly. my extremely complex and intricate "do nothing" strategy is paying off quite nicely.

(to be fair, yes, getting the timing right on these things, you can literally multiply your profits. but that's a LOT harder than what i'm doing)

 

[LJS22]

My short term account is sadly flat....

Really thought P and D would be some sort of sell the news. Short term anyway, not that they would miss, but have seen it work that way so often...wanted dry powder to load up like mad.

Thank goodness for my long and strong long term holdings!!

Congrats to all the longs. Really hard to play this stock right now unless you engage in recklessness.

All you reckless folks, congrats even more! Usually in your ranks but too smart for my own good this time.

Happy Friday!

Just keep track of what Elon has been saying. He never changed guidance, immediately knew Q1 and Q2 would be trouble, kept referencing Q3 and Q4 as return to profitability. He’s basically sending us the answers just not as direct as he has been in the past. The only miss he had was hoping to hit 100,000 in Q3 and came up 3,000 short then fried shorts with revenue beat.
But he’s predicting this year Q3 and Q4 could be amazing (2020)

 

[Nocturnal]

 

[dl003]

That’s the essence of zen. To get the cookie, you must leave the cookie. To attract money, you must not be attached to money.

As in, reinvesting every last penny into building factories and superchargers?
Who knew them Asians were writing whitepapers for growth stocks centuries ago?

 

[DragonWatch]

Good for a laugh. This is why Tesla stock in the green today (some day I'll learn to edit my own writing better)

 

[jbcarioca]

And in other news: I'm speechless. Should I wake my wife?

My own just walked by and said "I told you so"

 

[traxila]

Just keep track of what Elon has been saying. He never changed guidance, immediately knew Q1 and Q2 would be trouble, kept referencing Q3 and Q4 as return to profitability. He’s basically sending us the answers just not as direct as he has been in the past. The only miss he had was hoping to hit 100,000 in Q3 and came up 3,000 short then fried shorts with revenue beat.
But he’s predicting this year Q3 and Q4 could be amazing (2020)

Yes of course with you.

Was trying to play short term stuff that many times has no relation to reality.

Have plenty of stock and some LT calls. Just could have had more. Not complaining.

 

[Zaxxon]

I don't want to alarm anyone, but 112k deliveries with lower leasing % and solid S/X numbers just might produce a solid Q4 bottom line.

I mean, it could happen. Maybe an 83% chance?

Also, anyone notice the Q4 production rate of 105k, if extrapolated out to a full year, comes to... 420?

 

[Pezpunk]

Just keep track of what Elon has been saying. He never changed guidance, immediately knew Q1 and Q2 would be trouble, kept referencing Q3 and Q4 as return to profitability. He’s basically sending us the answers just not as direct as he has been in the past. The only miss he had was hoping to hit 100,000 in Q3 and came up 3,000 short then fried shorts with revenue beat.
But he’s predicting this year Q3 and Q4 could be amazing (2020)

and, as a word of warning for the (somewhat) near future, he has repeatedly warned that Q1 2020 will be "tough". so keep an umbrella handy.

 

[Mike Smith]

112k X 4 quarters = 438k

current analysts expectations for 2020 deliveries - 465k

There's a flood of upgrades coming.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Everyone that shorted st $225 or under a few months ago has a more than 100% loss

 

[Nocturnal]

and, as a word of warning for the near future, he has repeatedly warned that Q12020 will be "tough". so keep an umbrella handy.

He did say that a while back before GF1 was certain though right? Prudence is probably good because Q1 is always weak and the liars that hate Tesla always act shocked when it is.