Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jbcarioca]

... As staggering to me as it can be, as of a few moments ago I now have more assets than I ever got rid of. Gracious.

My spouses birthday is today. Even after having given away most of our assets a few years back we today have higher net worth than at any time in our lives. TSLA is one of the reasons, dumb luck thinking Scully would crash another and my spouse's adamant insistence of my objections the third and largest part.

Her birthday could not have been on a better day! ATH's all around!!

 

[Krugerrand]

The shorts will be burned. I have spoken.

Not how it works.

 

[StealthP3D]

Just a smidge over 83,000. I'll take it
Seems like Tesla has done drawn down most of its inventory. Q1 started with 14,000 under delivery, Q2 and Q4 together has been over 15,000 over-delivery. Seems like their logistics has matured nicely and production expanding by about 10% QoQ, arguably limited by battery production. Barring any battery capacity increase, I expect Q1 2020 maximum production & delivery to be 115k (110% of 104k)

With the ramp of GF3 coinciding with the end of the year, I don't think such a simplistic percent increase to be a valid way to predict Q1 production. I will be surprised if Q1 production is not over 120K.

And, yes, there will be increases in battery pack production.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Lol, that single shift didn't do any Deliveries; they did the Production (17,933 S/X).

Whole lotta shortin' goin' on today... they had to reset their defences at $440, now they've fallen back to $450 but the seige engine is rollin' up to the castle moat.

Cheers!

Grond! Grond!

 

[shrspeedblade]

Telling myself to remember there will be some delay in covering and margin calls, dips now will be profit taking.

Feeling dumb about selling the 5 shares I held on margin at EOD yesterday.

Still- weee investing is fun!

 

[Prunesquallor]

A serious note: As I've divulged before, when I departed Wall St in the mid-90s for the safety of backwoods Alaska, I also gave away almost all my money. Didn't need it - no wife; no family.

Stuff Tesla happened. (Wife & family, too). As staggering to me as it can be, as of a few moments ago I now have more assets than I ever got rid of. Gracious.

It’s called (good) "karma".

 

[Dan Detweiler]

I am actually looking forward to following CNBC for a change today! THAT is definitely a first for me. lol!

Dan

 

[Artful Dodger]

Yeah I'd also liked to have seen slightly higher production numbers. But 87k does about add up to 350k per year, which is their Fremont M3 production capacity according to Q3 letter. I guess I shouldn't have been surprised by this number.

There were exactly 88 possible workdays in 2019Q4 (excluding 2 Stat Holidays). Tesla Fremont produced and AVERAGE of 1,000 Model 3s per day for 87 of those 88 days. And your guidance from Tesla was.... ?

 

[Mike Smith]

You'd think the most heavily shorted company on the market would have, you know, problems or something

 

[larmor]

That was a remarkably quick jump from tree-fiddy to fo-fiddy.

How long to fie-fiddy?

Should not be long, doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that many current wars and coming wars are gyrating on oil, and tesla is one company that is doing something to subvert this paradigm. And also global warming and climate catastrophes are coming as well no thanks to current trends of emissions.

But it does take a rocket scientist to make serious change and take on the current auto, data, and climate problems and infrastructure.

 

[humbaba]

That's some hefty profit taking, 10 points from the top already. I'm expecting it will soon resume the climb.

Well, @StealthP3D did tell me to sell off half my $TSLA

(too bad I don't have shares to move the price)

 

[Cirrus MS100D]

There were exactly 88 possible workdays in 2019Q4 (excluding 2 Stat Holidays). Tesla Fremont produced and AVERAGE of 1,000 Model 3s per day for 87 of those 88 days. And your guidance from Tesla was.... ?

Something else worth considering: If they’re working on building and/or incorporating Model Y into the line, that is likely to have sucked at least some resources out of Model 3.

 

[Krugerrand]

Go back under your box.

What box? You can’t see me anymore than shorts can, all of whom should be ripping their eyeballs out right about now.

 

[JBRR]

Me when I found TSLA in 2015 and kept buying more and more vs me now having weathered 5 years of FUD.

 

[woodisgood]

Four fiddy Friday! Way to beat guidance soundly AND save some deliveries for Q1. Nicely done Tesla, nicely done.

 

[Remus]

I was laughed at by colleagues when insisted on buying TSLA in the low 200.

Now I just keep my mouth shut and enjoy their envy.

 

[Artful Dodger]

So now that S&P inclusion is moving into the highly likely category this just seems insane. How do you add what could soon be a $100 billion company to the index? I guess we’ll find out this year.

We've been through this here last week. A TSLA market cap of $100B would put it at #50 currently of the 505 equities listed on the S&P 500.

 

[traxila]

My short term account is sadly flat....

Really thought P and D would be some sort of sell the news. Short term anyway, not that they would miss, but have seen it work that way so often...wanted dry powder to load up like mad.

Thank goodness for my long and strong long term holdings!!

Congrats to all the longs. Really hard to play this stock right now unless you engage in recklessness.

All you reckless folks, congrats even more! Usually in your ranks but too smart for my own good this time.

Happy Friday!

 

[MP3Mike]

Something else worth considering: If they’re working on building and/or incorporating Model Y into the line, that is likely to have sucked at least some resources out of Model 3.

Nope, pretty sure Model Y is a separate line... (Which is how they are doing it at GF3 as well.)

Of course some stuff like stamping will be shared, but that shouldn't slow things down.

 

[ZachF]

You step away from the internet for a few hours....