Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Prunesquallor]

...

On the other hand, I love this: "excluding local battery pack production which began in late December." No local Tesla-owned cell production yet, of course.. But that'll come!

...

I missed that. So they're shipping cells over from GF1 and assembling packs at GF3? (Not meant to reignite cells/modules/packs discussion).

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Total production over 1100 per day at Freemont in a period that includes Thanksgiving and Christmas (don't know if they are doing full shifts those days). Very impressive with the space constraints they have there.

 

[floydboy]

Reactions on CNBC today are gonna be fun

I believe CNBC may go into silent running mode to avoid detection.

 

[Fact Checking]

The biggest question in my mind for S&P inclusion timing is whether Q1 is profitable - should become clearer in the coming months. Of course macro events could also derail it.

The delivery report has a nugget for Q1 too:

"Despite breaking ground at Gigafactory Shanghai less than 12 months ago, we have already produced just under 1,000 customer salable cars and have begun deliveries. We have also demonstrated production run-rate capability of greater than 3,000 units per week, excluding local battery pack production which began in late December."​

I.e. Tesla was sandbagging GF3 production capacity, and their demonstrated burst rate is already beyond 3k/week.

Phenomenally fast ramp-up and no unexpected hiccups with the GF3 Model 3 ramp-up.

Today we also had the leaks from China that Q1 production capacity has almost been sold out already.

This bodes well for GF3 Q1 deliveries - Q1 profits and S&P 500 inclusion secured?

Not advice.

 

[KarenRei]

I missed that. So they're shipping cells over from GF1 and assembling packs at GF3? (Not meant to reignite cells/modules/packs discussion).

Are they not buying cells from LG China?

 

[madodel]

15,000 Model S&X - Cowen's Osborne projection for Q4
19,450 Model S&X - Actual Deliveries in Q4

I don't know who this guy is buying his research from, but he needs to find someone else.
For someone who does this for a living, that was a horrendous miss.

Is it normal on Wall Street to pay one's own hallucinations for their delusions?

 

[uselesslogin]

So now that S&P inclusion is moving into the highly likely category this just seems insane. How do you add what could soon be a $100 billion company to the index? I guess we’ll find out this year.

 

[jerry33]

Are they not buying cells from LG China?

I believe they are but I think LG China hasn't started shipping yet.

 

[floydboy]

I missed that. So they're shipping cells over from GF1 and assembling packs at GF3? (Not meant to reignite cells/modules/packs discussion).

Hey man! This thing's already on fire, don't say reignite!

 

[Joe F]

Soooo, how do you know I have 3 wives? Can you prove it?

You appear to spend all your time posting here, ipso facto?

 

[Cobbler]

So now that S&P inclusion is moving into the highly likely category this just seems insane. How do you add what could soon be a $100 billion company to the index? I guess we’ll find out this year.

Does this mean I should buy more shares?

 

[dl003]

Just a smidge over 83,000. I'll take it
Seems like Tesla has done drawn down most of its inventory. Q1 started with 14,000 under delivery, Q2 and Q4 together has been over 15,000 over-delivery. Seems like their logistics has matured nicely and production expanding by about 10% QoQ, arguably limited by battery production. Barring any battery capacity increase, I expect Q1 2020 maximum production & delivery to be 115k (110% of 104k)

 

[ReflexFunds]

The delivery report has a nugget for Q1 too:

"Despite breaking ground at Gigafactory Shanghai less than 12 months ago, we have already produced just under 1,000 customer salable cars and have begun deliveries. We have also demonstrated production run-rate capability of greater than 3,000 units per week, excluding local battery pack production which began in late December."​

I.e. Tesla was sandbagging GF3 production capacity, and their demonstrated burst rate is already beyond 3k/week.

Phenomenally fast ramp-up and no unexpected hiccups with the GF3 Model 3 ramp-up.

Today we also had the leaks from China that Q1 production capacity has almost been sold out already.

This bodes well for GF3 Q1 deliveries - Q1 profits and S&P 500 inclusion secured?

Not advice.

I think the only thing holding back GF3 production is supplier component ramp.
Tesla seemed to have no issues ramping its equipment to design capacity, but no point adding more shifts and more days per week to production until the suppliers catch up.
Hopefully all on track to ramp to 3k per week soon though. Looks promising.

 

[mongo]

Better than I expected - and reflective of the only real negative I see (Fremont M3 production growth wasn't that great; they managed this feat through inventory, which is a one-time trick).

What growth were you expecting?
Target rate was 7k+

Q4 2018 letter

Model 3 production volumes in Fremont should gradually continue to grow throughout 2019 and reach a sustained rate of 7,000 units per week by the end of the year. We are planning to continue to produce Model 3 vehicles at maximum production rates throughout 2019. Inclusive of Gigafactory Shanghai, where we are initially aiming for 3,000 Model 3 vehicles per week, our goal is to be able to produce 10,000 vehicles per week on a sustained basis. Barring unexpected challenges with Gigafactory Shanghai, we are targeting annualized Model 3 output in excess of 500,000 units sometime between Q4 of 2019 and Q2 of 2020.

Fremont made 87,000 Model 3s. In December.
Even saying there was only a smidge over a half week of down time, they hit their goal.
Looks like a win to me. On time on target.
Dare I say Bullseye?

 

[KarenRei]

I believe they are but I think LG China hasn't started shipping yet.

They don't need a lot at this point. What's your info on LG's start / scaleup timeline?

 

[Prunesquallor]

Are they not buying cells from LG China?

I knew that was the plan, but I never heard whether it was happening yet. For some reason I thought packs were being shipped to Shanghai for the immediate future.

 

[sundaymorning]

So very happy to be wrong. These numbers are amazing!

 

[Beltsbear]

I missed that. So they're shipping cells over from GF1 and assembling packs at GF3? (Not meant to reignite cells/modules/packs discussion).

Probably not. Cells from another supplier or Panasonic in Asia. It would be much safer and easier to send a fully made pack from gf1.

 

[Mike Smith]

I wonder how many Cowen clients still have shorts on based on Jeffrey Osborne's "analysis". Perhaps with this new information he'll raise his price target another $20 to $230.

 

[sparcs]

we have already produced just under 1,000 customer salable cars and have begun deliveries. We have also demonstrated production run-rate capability of greater than 3,000 units per week, excluding local battery pack production which began in late December.

Sounds like that 280 per day GF3 quote from a few days ago was fairly misleading as some of us suspected. They only have 1000 cars today after seeing all the drone videos and these bullish quotes from employees.

We have all seen these run-rate numbers not translate into big delivery numbers. At this point, i'm hoping for 8k deliveries in Q1 out of GF3.