Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Kmartyn]

Tesla announces Model Y production in China, and local design and production of a low cost car for export outside China.

Does this mean an under $20,000 Tesla?

I think they should put a different name on a car this inexpensive, not to dilute the brand.

Either way it’s got to be a long term positive for the stock price. Design centers in Berlin, and China, as announced shows an additional move to be a global company.

 

[bhtooefr]

Brand dilution is much more of a problem in North America than outside. And, as this may be a product not intended for the US...

I mean, you have Audi going as low as €20,300 (I believe that's after taxes, too) in the German market (with the A1, which would pretty directly compete against a smaller Tesla if it is smaller), and as high as €222,000 before options (with the R8, which competes somewhat directly against the Roadster in terms of role and price, if not performance).

 

[SteveG3]

Yes, I know you believe that. But you missed the point. By Tesla building in Germany, Germany just secured their industry regardless of the outcome for their original home brands. Look at the article that already came out about the other OEMs chatting up Brandenberg government, wondering why Tesla chose that area and not the standard OEM region. They want to know what they missed. Tesla hasn’t even put the first pile driver into the ground and the OEMs are in a panic.

The governments can’t make their citizens buy cars they don’t want. That’s a fact. You think those governments will start to incentivize the purchase of gas and diesel cars suddenly to prop up their OEMs? Of course not.

Sure, they can give bigger and bigger incentives to purchase locally made EVs, which aren’t Teslas therefore don’t have the range, the fast charging capabilities, OTA updates, arcade, EAP features etc... but the people, particularly outside of the home country, aren’t going to be buying. So that won’t work.

Don’t you see, people don’t want other EVs especially when given an opportunity to own a Tesla. People settle for other EVs because Tesla doesn’t make a micro version that’ll fit in their parking spot/whathaveyou. Tesla makes the best EVs, they just don’t come in enough variety to work for everyone on the planet - yet.

If Tesla China designs and makes a smaller EV, in a hatchback; you realize what happens, right? Or if you prefer, if Tesla Germany designs specifically for non-Scandinavian tastes in European vehicle size.

That leaves Japan. Who they going to sell their fuel cell cars to then? This isn’t simply about local purchasing, this is about international purchasing.

Have another look at my post, it is not at all about the governments forcing the German or Japanese to purchase diesel or fuel cell vehicles, it is quite to the contrary, a scenario where Germany and Japan backstop their majors as they fund together a very large, rapid, buildout of battery factories.

If Tesla knocks it out of the park they’ll be making 5 million cars globally in 2025 (I think 3 million is more realistic). With that scale of global EVs from Tesla, and Chinese automakers gaining substantial international acceptance for their EVs potentially on the horizon, there will still be a window for domestic German and Japanese well made EVs to come onto the global vehicle supply and take advantage of what is likely to be a massive gap between EV supply and much greater demand IF they act swiftly. That is, they don’t even have to be as good an EV as a Tesla... Tesla global supply (3-5 million of a 90 million global vehicle market currently) will be sold out... they’ll just have to be EVs better than ICE. I think the German and Japanese incumbents can do that, but, it is quite likely that would require government support to do it in a way that those incumbents (or the bulk of them anyhow) can survive.

We shall see.

 

[LJS22]

It’s funny watching this guy at the CES show from Amazon talking about putting entertainment in the car because we are headed to autonomy. He’s mentioning all these great things the consumer can do while in the car if only they had entertainment options...

 

[woodisgood]

Tesla announces Model Y production in China, and local design and production of a low cost car for export outside China.

Does this mean an under $20,000 Tesla?

I think they should put a different name on a car this inexpensive, not to dilute the brand.

Either way it’s got to be a long term positive for the stock price. Design centers in Berlin, and China, as announced shows an additional move to be a global company.

How about the Whiskers River?

 

[Wooloomooloo]

Exactly! Learning about TSLA also opened my eyes to the truth about "False News", which I largely became numb to when the orange guy threw the term around profusely. Then I saw the blatant misdirection (Tesla FUD) by MSNBC, Reuters, Consumer Reports, Major newspapers, other trusted sources... And, unbelievably, I still catch myself soaking up every word in these publications on other subjects as factual, I guess because they sprinkle in enough legitimate reporting to disarm our skepticism.

I think people still strongly confuse facts with opinions and especially with conclusions and also people are now very sensitized to the motivation behind individuals or news outlets selecting some facts over others. It's unfortunate that this has bread a very partisan "with us or against us" mentality when it comes to TSLA.

Commercial news organizations just want clicks and views, so they'll frame everything and anything as controversial to get that attention. This is especially true of cable news who live and die based on the commercials they sell (which are almost all car ads and drug ads, so of course there's bias for those companies).

It's very important to separate legitimate criticisms (I think CR had some TBH) from genuine FUD because if you dismiss everything critical, you might not see a real problem coming. Make your own decisions!

Meanwhile I'm enjoying my 130% returns in 6 months! I really ought to send an IM to Adam...

 

[Prunesquallor]

It may be posted and not relevant, but Tesla charts posted on twitter today that the short story is over. It may be fwaud, but chiner chiner chiner is all the talking heads will talk about.
Perhaps more shorts will be retiring, if they’re not bankrupt. Don’t gloat in public, your Uber driver might have been a tslaq shorter last week.

The delicious irony would be if they drove a Tesla.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Oh no Elon tweeted about PornHub. Someone cut him off.

Again?

 

[dl003]

Tesla announces Model Y production in China, and local design and production of a low cost car for export outside China.

Does this mean an under $20,000 Tesla?

I think they should put a different name on a car this inexpensive, not to dilute the brand.

Either way it’s got to be a long term positive for the stock price. Design centers in Berlin, and China, as announced shows an additional move to be a global company.

I think it depends on what the brand represents. Sure, you can buy a Kia Stinger that beats up German cars twice its price but people pay more for the badge because, well, the badge stands for status and, thus, the price. Tesla brand, on the other hand, has been about technology, efficiency, and innovation. As long as the cheaper car carries on this heritage there should be no dilution.

 

[Nocturnal]

I like watching the bearish investment firms begrudgingly raise SP targets. Suisse is now up to $340 from 200.

The delicious irony would be if they drove a Tesla.

That nut claims to drive a volt. ​

 

[kbM3]

Does this mean an under $20,000 Tesla?

I think they should put a different name on a car this inexpensive, not to dilute the brand.

Either way it’s got to be a long term positive for the stock price. Design centers in Berlin, and China, as announced shows an additional move to be a global company.

Definitely! Most likely production has already begun, and deliveries will be scheduled next week

 

[Chunky Jr.]

This was taken at a gathering of Tesla analysts

 

[KarenRei]

Tesla announces Model Y production in China, and local design and production of a low cost car for export outside China.

No.

 

[jhm]

I'm happy to have sold a LEAP call 360 that I bought 22 months ago. Bought at $67, sold $102, net $35, gain 52%.

The stock price was $328. Had I bought stock and held to $462 (matching times with the option trade), I would have had a gain of 41%. So the call option boosted my gain an extra 11%. But I have been extraordinary lucky with the timing of this sell. Most of the 22 months I held the call is was sitting on a pretty serious unrealized loss. The price had fallen to a low of $0.68 last September. Mostly the price was so low that there was really no point in selling it and realizing the loss. I held it on the off chance that I might just get lucky.

So in hindsight, I think I would have been much happier had I simply bought shares rather than this option. But I'm not complaining, I'll take a 52% gain on dumb luck over a 99% loss on bitter folly.

Live and learn.

 

[larmor]

That's good, but not good enough. Elon needs to take on money in politics, education, plastic waste, fake news...

In reality, isn't that how he leads his people and suppliers alike? I don't think anyone else could have pulled off this vehicle production goal without some serious goals and pressure, top to bottom. (Cheers to all those in the pipeline BTW.) And it's these challenges that produce radical change from all paradigms. He personally gets me thinking larger all the time. (That and the person on this forum who told me I was thinking too small... I have to find that, it was timely).

Starship to Mars...

 

[jhm]

That was an....interesting touch hahah.


View attachment 497420

Y not?

 

[Krugerrand]

Have another look at my post, it is not at all about the governments forcing the German or Japanese to purchase diesel or fuel cell vehicles, it is quite to the contrary, a scenario where Germany and Japan backstop their majors as they fund together a very large, rapid, buildout of battery factories.

If Tesla knocks it out of the park they’ll be making 5 million cars globally in 2025 (I think 3 million is more realistic). With that scale of global EVs from Tesla, and Chinese automakers gaining acceptance for their EVs potentially on the horizon, there will still be a window for domestic German and Japanese well made EVs to come onto the global vehicle supply and take advantage of what is likely to be a massive gap between EV supply and much greater demand IF they act swiftly. That is, they don’t even have to be as good an EV as a Tesla... Tesla global supply will be sold out... they’ll just have to be EVs better than ICE. I think the German and Japanese incumbents can do that, but, it is quite likely that would require government support to do it in a way that those incumbents (or the bulk of them anyhow) can survive.

We shall see.

Best they get building those battery factories pronto. While they’re at it, hope they find some secret sauce to a) make those batteries as good as Tesla’s, b) last a million miles, c) figure out how to manage them in the car, d) figure out how to integrate all the systems in the car, e) provide OTA updates, f), g), h) etc...

Oh, and make a profit doing it. I’m sure it’ll be a breeze.

So, define swiftly for me. At what date in time does your belief change?

 

[Boomer19]

SETTLEMENT DATE | SHORT INTEREST | CL PR | TOT VAL SI
12/31/2020 | ? | 418.33 | ?
12/13/2019 | 27,496,754 | 358.39 | 9,854,561,666
11/29/2019 | 28,651,737 | 329.94 | 9,453,354,106
11/15/2019 | 30,614,501 | 352.17 | 10,781,508,817
10/31/2019 | 31,784,407 | 314.92 | 10,009,545,452
10/15/2019 | 37,186,793 | 257.89 | 9,590,102,047
9/30/2019 | 36,058,919 | 240.87 | 8,685,511,820
9/13/2019 | 38,883,688 | 245.20 | 9,534,280,298
8/30/2019 | 39,744,386 | 225.61 | 8,966,730,925
8/15/2019 | 39,296,516 | 215.64 | 8,473,900,710
7/31/2019 | 39,486,864 | 241.61 | 9,540,421,211
7/15/2019 | 41,406,987 | 253.50 | 10,496,671,205
6/28/2019 | 41,402,709 | 223.46 | 9,251,849,353
6/14/2019 | 41,459,902 | 214.92 | 8,910,562,138
5/31/2019 | 43,664,833 | 185.16 | 8,084,980,478
5/15/2019 | 37,569,877 | 231.95 | 8,714,332,970
4/30/2019 | 37,925,793 | 238.69 |9,052,507,531
4/15/2019 | 33,468,438 | 266.38 | 8,915,322,514
3/29/2019 | 32,740,424 | 279.86 | 9,162,735,061
3/15/2019 | 29,872,310 | 275.43 | 8,227,730,343
2/28/2019 | 26,965,480 | 319.88 | 8,625,717,742
2/15/2019 | 25,490,917 | 307.88 | 7,848,143,526
1/31/2019 | 24,783,245 | 307.02 | 7,608,951,880
1/15/2019 | 26,268,029 | 344.43 | 9,047,497,228

it will need to be around 24mm shs to remain a 10bb short

so, even though the height of over 43.5mm shs short as of may/june, the total val was ~8bb
the highest recent SI val was ~10.8bb in nov

the AT highest was 13bb+
6/15/18 | 37285669 | 358.17 | 13,354,608,066

 

[jhm]

The problem with building a "small Eurocar", and the reason Tesla hasn't done it already, is that buyers expect them to be cheaper, but with an EV, such a design actually is more expensive to make. They virtually always have vertical rear hatches (to maximize internal space within a limited footprint), which significantly hurts aero, which increases energy consumption and thus means more battery cost for the same range, or less range for a given pack cost - and either way, slower charging (which also increases Tesla's Supercharger infrastructure needs, and thus capital costs).

I'm sure they will eventually make one, of course.

As for making it in China and selling to Europe... no.

Also fleet emissions or efficiency standards cross-subsidize small economy cars. So they are generally priced less than they would without being compliance vehicles. Tesla has no such compliance burden, so it can focus on other segments that have higher margins.

 

[copyhacker]

Credit Suisse keeps an Underperform rating on Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), but lifts its price target to $340 from $200.

This is the funniest sentence I've read in a week. The very definition of moving the the goalposts.