Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Nocturnal]

Quick, go back to Slate!

It worked. LOL 464

 

[Runarbt]

No resistance when you’re breaking into new highs

thats the beauty of it.. just new support levels. ;-D

Edit: I have a weekly 460 call.. so this is fun. ;-)

 

[Tslynk67]

Brand dilution is much more of a problem in North America than outside. And, as this may be a product not intended for the US...

I mean, you have Audi going as low as €20,300 (I believe that's after taxes, too) in the German market (with the A1, which would pretty directly compete against a smaller Tesla if it is smaller), and as high as €222,000 before options (with the R8, which competes somewhat directly against the Roadster in terms of role and price, if not performance).

I give you, exhibit A: The Aston Martin Cygnet...

 

[Artful Dodger]

So anyone want to suggest the next resistance level?

460 isn't cracked if that what you are suggesting. 463.64 could be pulled back with a quick dump at a quiet time. Remember, the 'lunch lull' during times of low trading vol inevitably gets the shortzes back on their horses.

 

[UncaNed]

I'm happy to have sold a LEAP call 360 that I bought 22 months ago. Bought at $67, sold $102, net $35, gain 52%.

The stock price was $328. Had I bought stock and held to $462 (matching times with the option trade), I would have had a gain of 41%. So the call option boosted my gain an extra 11%. But I have been extraordinary lucky with the timing of this sell. Most of the 22 months I held the call is was sitting on a pretty serious unrealized loss. The price had fallen to a low of $0.68 last September. Mostly the price was so low that there was really no point in selling it and realizing the loss. I held it on the off chance that I might just get lucky.

So in hindsight, I think I would have been much happier had I simply bought shares rather than this option. But I'm not complaining, I'll take a 52% gain on dumb luck over a 99% loss on bitter folly.

Live and learn.

Asking for enlightenment from our knowing long time investment elders-

Notwithstanding that one of us lost like $500,000 on call options (and then traded their way back up again), aren't the odds significantly against a long term Call expiring worthless with TSLA LEAPs? Wasn't @jhm mostly unlucky, and it was a gamble that will likely pay off most of the time with TSLA?

I really appreciate these discussions as I'm teaching myself the basics of options, learning by doing but wondering if I am actually drowning in the Dunning-Kruger effect and don't know it or something.

 

[M3Rider]

I'm about 50% cash ...
...
In the short term, I think TSLA has at least another $100 bux to run.

How do you reconcile these 2?

 

[wipster]

So anyone want to suggest the next resistance level?

500

 

[T@oo]

I have to ask any old TMC members (old on TMC, not necessarily of age): is this what 2013 felt like? I'm trying to get work done... it's so damn hard to focus on anything other than the unmentionable!

I was more the buy and forget investor those days. I completely missed the drama. Oh boy, what a shame. I woke up when my shares already were 5x or 6x and was like Holy shite, wtf ?!?

 

[Curt Renz]

Barron's - 6 minutes ago: Tesla Is the Most Valuable Car Company In America Ever

Here's the MarketWatch version - 13 minutes ago: Tesla’s market cap is now bigger than Ford’s was at its peak

 

[keydiver]

So anyone want to suggest the next resistance level?

 

[goinfraftw]

10.69% change (as of now) since Paris Climate Accord started on 1/1/2020.

 

[Tslynk67]

I'm happy to have sold a LEAP call 360 that I bought 22 months ago. Bought at $67, sold $102, net $35, gain 52%.

The stock price was $328. Had I bought stock and held to $462 (matching times with the option trade), I would have had a gain of 41%. So the call option boosted my gain an extra 11%. But I have been extraordinary lucky with the timing of this sell. Most of the 22 months I held the call is was sitting on a pretty serious unrealized loss. The price had fallen to a low of $0.68 last September. Mostly the price was so low that there was really no point in selling it and realizing the loss. I held it on the off chance that I might just get lucky.

So in hindsight, I think I would have been much happier had I simply bought shares rather than this option. But I'm not complaining, I'll take a 52% gain on dumb luck over a 99% loss on bitter folly.

Live and learn.

September was the moment to buy options!! Double-down...

The Jan 21 $650's I bought then are now 3000% up. I've now got fear of holding and fear of selling. It's horrible!!

 

[AudubonB]

I'm enjoying the fact that TSLA now is at a level ten percent above what a certain someone waaaay back a little over a year ago suggested where Funding Secured was for a private take-out.

 

[mtndrew1]

Soooo...how’s the TSLAQ crowd?

On a serious note, is there a particular threshold where margin calls are more likely? I’m not an investor but am curious to see if there is a short squeeze happening.

 

[ZachF]

Smells like another fresh wave of margin calls!

 

[ninpb]

I don't really see talk about Tesla insurance any more. I wonder how that is performing.

Anybody know how different car insurance is outside of the US? I'd like Tesla to attack a country with a more favorable environment for the insurance business.

I love my car but from an investor standpoint, the thing that I really like about Tesla is all the intangibles it has. All these products that it can sell "out of thin air".

1. Robotaxi
2. OTA upgrades
3. Insurance
4. Carbon credit
5. Supercharger

Anything else I'm missing?

 

[SunCatcher]

I was more the buy and forget investor those days. I completely missed the drama. Oh boy, what a shame. I woke up when my shares already were 5x or 6x and was like Holy shite, wtf ?!?

I wish I could do that. Instead, I'm wide awake, living on coffee and the stock ticker...

 

[adiggs]

As an investor, you should know that's a matter of opinion. I'm not saying I agree or disagree (as I haven't analyzed her spreads), just that there is no 100% objective way to determine the actual risk. It's a matter of opinion because the business and investment world is not a cookie-cutter world that can be represented by neat mathematical formulas. If it were, computers could allocate all capital for the cost of maintaining the computers and investors would all receive the same return on their capital.

I suspect you already know this @StealthP3D - one of the great assumptions of modern portfolio theory is that we can substitute in volatility as a proxy variable for risk. For as you point out, nobody has a 100% object way to determine actual risk.

Volatility is measurable, and it's how you gain the ability to claim that a position provides a better (or worse) risk adjusted return. It's really a volatility adjusted return.


I'm with you - risk and volatility aren't the same thing, even if our financial advisors use them as if they're interchangeable. They do become more and more similar the shorter term your investment thesis is.


Found this paragraph, my emphasis added, in this article:

Those who are more risk averse tend to want assets with lower standard deviations. A lower deviation from the mean suggests the asset's price experiences less volatility and there is a lower probability for major loss. Aggressive investors are comfortable with a higher standard deviation because it suggests higher returns are also possible.

How is risk aversion measured in modern portfolio theory (MPT)?

(My comment - the assumption that volatility = risk is so deeply baked into MPT, the people talking about it use the two terms interchangeably!)

 

[Green Pete]

Asking for enlightenment from our knowing long time investment elders-

Notwithstanding that one of us lost like $500,000 on call options (and then traded their way back up again), aren't the odds significantly against a long term Call expiring worthless with TSLA LEAPs? Wasn't @jhm mostly unlucky, and it was a gamble that will likely pay off most of the time with TSLA?

I really appreciate these discussions as I'm teaching myself the basics of options, learning by doing but wondering if I am actually drowning in the Dunning-Kruger effect and don't know it or something.

Don't ever bet the house on options. If you go into options expecting to lose it all but hope not to your probably doing it right.

 

[StealthP3D]

Oh no Elon tweeted about PornHub. Someone cut him off.

No! Tell him to tweet more about PornHub!