Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Cherry Wine]

That the most ridiculous statement ever. Unless you want to define "top" as the highest price in three days. When you said "trader" I think you forgot to put the word "day" in there!

I could show you a hundred charts with the same pause in a bull run that went on to double and quadruple before you could say "I missed the boat". It happens all-the-time.

I actually don't disagree. I'm just aware that the chart matches the pattern at the moment. I have bull put spreads expiring next Friday at $500 strike that I left open because personally I think it more likely that the stock sticks close to that level or above going into earnings. And if it doesn't, I'll keep rolling them until it does. ;-)

 

[carterm2]

FCA article...paying for GF4

$150+ M each quarter? How much has Tesla gotten thus far?

I would also like to whine... when buy to open shares, the sale is recorded by the second. But the shorts get a 2 week delay, why?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Latest short interest just posted: 26,259,152 shares were held short as of 12/31 settlement:

Tesla, Inc. Common Stock (TSLA) Short Interest

This settlement date reflects the initial run to $420 - $430

Short interest declined by 1,237,602 shares since the last reporting period.

While the number of shares shorted declined, the aggregate size of short positions INCREASED by $1.7 billion during this period due to the significant rise in share price.

At a SP of $480 that's $12.6B

Lolololol

 

[dha]

At a SP of $480 that's $12.6B

Lolololol

And these folks want to lecture Elon about burning cash!

 

[Curt Renz]

Come on, give us some sport for the day, go green, go green!!!

Edit: blah, booooring!

There was a lunar eclipse occurring during this afternoon's trading. I wouldn't be surprised if financial astrologers blame that for the slippage in the macros and the TSLA share price. Seriously, they think that way, and many traders follow them. But the eclipse was ending about the same time as the market was closing, so perhaps the Lunatics have been scared away.

 

[Buckminster]

If Robo taxi is really are a thing (big if and when...) then many more ICE cars would be taken off the road by using them as such and allowing people to simply never purchase a car because it is too cheap to summon them instead.

Next generation not care about cars so much. Want mobility.

I'm not sure if families will be buying Teslas for personal use. The economics will be:

M3 without FSD = $35k
M3 with FSD = $135k

Why would Tesla sell unbundled?

No family will be spending $135k on a car that they won't release to Tesla Network.

 

[ZsoZso]

Latest short interest just posted: 26,259,152 shares were held short as of 12/31 settlement:

Tesla, Inc. Common Stock (TSLA) Short Interest

This settlement date reflects the initial run to $420 - $430

Short interest declined by 1,237,602 shares since the last reporting period.

While the number of shares shorted declined, the aggregate size of short positions INCREASED by $1.7 billion during this period due to the significant rise in share price.

But, but, but, ... Ihor said short interest has gone UP not DOWN !?!?
What gives ? Who is wrong ?

Spoiler

In case you missed it, I was being sarcastic. I know Ihor was wrong AGAIN.
But a lot of people still keep quoting him like he is some kind of reliable information source...

 

[CanadaEV]

And these folks want to lecture Elon about burning cash!

lol, but those guys aren't burning cash... they're just trying to burn more oil

 

[dha]

But, but, but, ... Ihor said short interest has gone UP not DOWN !?!?
What gives ? Who is wrong ?

That tweet is dated 1/9. It's plausible that he is correct as the official figures would only reflect trading in the last week of December.

 

[Cherry Wine]

That tweet is dated 1/9. It's plausible that he is correct as the official figures would only reflect trading in the last week of December.

He posted on December 31st. He was pretty off (again) -- in fact he was off by about 1.3M shares:

$TSLA short int is $11.41bn ; 27.50mm shs shorted; 20.55% of float;0.30% borrow fee. Shs shorted down -1.15mm shs, -4%, over last 30 days as price rose +26% & up +430k shs over last week. Shorts down -$2.83bn in 2019 mark-to-market losses; down -$2.32bn in Dec & down -$13mm today

 

[CanadaEV]

That tweet is dated 1/9. It's plausible that he is correct as the official figures would only reflect trading in the last week of December.

So if you already shorted a million shares leading up to $490, and you borrow another million and sell them at $490, that should cover all your loses for a while... until you eventually have to pay.

Isn't that how these guys have been running the fossil fuel economy for the past 100 years?

 

[ruralectric]

GM buys Super Bowl air time to resurrect an all-electric version of the Hummer, sources say

The Hummer was, to put it mildly, never my thing.
But if GM is serious about bringing back the Hummer as an EV, I think this is something to be celebrated, and the first glimmer of a sign of intelligent life from GM since...? Since?

Well anyway, yeah. I can see the potential for this to be a big hit with the macho-big-truck lemming crowd. Could be 100x bigger than the Bolt or Volt. And could actually induce a slight movement in the needle towards mass EV adoption. I hope they do it.

 

[StealthP3D]

I bought shares of Canadian-based fuel-cell maker Ballard Power (BLDP) about four years ago at $1.35/share. It has since tripled in price so I'm sitting on some nice profits. I guess most of their revenue comes from buses and forklifts. I've never believed fuel cell cars would gain traction anytime soon - just purchased them because they were cheap, had a lot of IPR and thought they might get bought out. Anyone have an opinion on their business going forward? Sell or hold?

Thinking of selling BLDP before earnings release today.

They don't look like they are even close to making a profit. They have been around for a long time and their market cap is still under one billion. I would sell unless you know something about them that I don't. They were $100 a share in 2000.

Just a follow-up on this post I made when BLDP was trading at $4.18 about 5 months ago. I decided to hang on to the fool cell maker from Vancouver, B.C. because they still seemed cheap enough and had their foot in China outfitting hydrogen buses (and no one provided a good reason why I should sell, LOL!).

Well, they've run up nicely, more than doubling again to over $9.00! Pretty good for the stock of an unprofitable company I only paid $1.35 for 3 1/2 years ago! And they are still not profitable (nor do they have any guidance to profitability). Not a recommendation.

They did recently release a research paper in conjunction with a paid-for research firm that talks up fuel cells. I am not a big believer in fuel cells, I just like to play speculative bets when I think there's potential for over 100% or 400% appreciation, so no need to tell me how inefficient/expensive hydrogen fuel cells are. I know. I agree. But I did read their recent propaganda (very well done btw, LOL!).

Those interested in fool cells can read it here:
Deloitte Vol 1 Fueling the Future of Mobility | Ballard Power Systems
The gist of the "research" report is that fuel cells have a declining cost curve and, in about 10 years will have a number of viable markets.

I plan on selling my BLDP shares soon. I almost sold them today but I got a phone call before I could. But now I'm wondering why they are running up so steadily.

 

[jhm]

(Gets up on stock buy back soapbox):
Buying back stock means you have run out of ideas to create value. IBM is the perfect example of how to destroy value through stock buybacks. Since 1995 IBM spent $199B on stock buybacks. Their current market cap is $121B.
IBM's Stock Buybacks Have Not Produced Societal Wealth
(Gets off soapbox)

Thankfully I don't think Musk will run out of ideas as long as he's in charge.

I don't see the problem here. $199B is returned to shareholders willing to part with their shares and most was probably reinvested in other things or spent in the consumer economy. That may well have been more economically productive than an alternative where IBM would have just sat on all that cash or frittered it away in low return investments. I suspect more societal wealth was created by returning capital to investors than by squandering it internally.

 

[MABMAB]

On advertisements and superbowl ads: We own, drive, and love our Tesla auto, no other car compares. When I see, read, or notice any other automobile advertisement (regardless of segment), all I can think about is they are advertising feelings that my tesla car gives me, and their car brand really does not give their owners.
Zoom zoom? Oh what a feeling! Built tough? Me yeah, them no
Upmarket cars have fast paced music, edgy actors, all suggestive selling that which my car does better.

In my mind, all of the other advertisements just show the inferiority of those vehicles and thus are really advertisements for Tesla.

Those that fall prey to the ads really just have not experienced the Tesla difference yet, or enough, or are too scared because of the FUD.

Which means, what a great investment, what a future.
And What profit stays in house for Tesla to expand and sell more thus rewarding long term shareholders

 

[StealthP3D]

I would also like to whine... when buy to open shares, the sale is recorded by the second. But the shorts get a 2 week delay, why?

The same reason a blackjack dealer doesn't turn over the house's cards until you stand.

It would remove the advantage the house has! But, I agree, our financial markets should be completely transparent, not have dark little corners in them.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

It wasn’t easy to digest this thread today, as it was full of technical discussions on engineering. Some new posters, but some regulars too, do not seem to realize that the link with investing is too thin for that stuff to be discussed here. A page full of in-depth engineering posts can now be found here (and those are just the ones that had escaped deletion after a mod request was ignored):

All engineering topics (out of main)

In future technical discussion should take place over there or in the appropriate subforums about Tesla’s cars.

 

[Off Shore]

FCA article...paying for GF4

$150+ M each quarter? How much has Tesla gotten thus far?

I would also like to whine... when buy to open shares, the sale is recorded by the second. But the shorts get a 2 week delay, why?

Crooked casino.

 

[StealthP3D]

Is that an SNL CNBC parody? All these super-serious guys talking about farts even worse, the old guy wasn't even aware of Fart Mode - how can se seriously comment on $TSLA when he doesn't know about that, it's one of the key selling points these days.

And then the Tim (no not shortytim), he looked like a doped lizard or something, then pops up with Musk putting Fart Mode in cars and how the traditional auto makers don't have that ability.

CNBC has to cover the rise of Tesla or they will look negligent. It appears their strategy is to turn every Tesla segment into a joke so people won't think Tesla is the biggest business phenomenon to hit the planet in the new Millenium.

Before Tesla rocketed, they turned every Tesla segment into "Look what a joke of a company Tesla is". Now, with Tesla coasting high like a Falcon 9 rocket that has just jettisoned its first stage containing 9 Merlin engines and preparing to ignite the single, vacuum adapted second stage Merlin engine that will boost it to orbital velocity, all they can do is make fart and poop jokes and shake their heads like they don't know what to make of this. It's the calm before the storm.

They are dumbfounded, out of their league and embarrassed about how wrong they were. Their producer told his production assistant to find a Tesla bull that looks weird, the kind of weird that people can't relate to. That will ensure their viewers have been informed while preferring to stay on the safe side with "normal" people like their regulars who are cracking poop and fart jokes.

But I don't think they invited Bob Lutz on the show with the expectation that he would apply his special stamp of approval to Tesla's business model and the competent way Elon is running the company!

 

[FrankSG]

Just tried my hand at making a TMC diluted GAAP EPS estimate "consensus." Could only find four posted diluted GAAP EPS estimates since the P&D report, however. From @EVNow, @Todesbuckler, @FrankSG, and @luvb2b; posts linked here, here, here and here.

Unweighted average is 1.47. Average weighted by number of total posts on TMC is 2.02.

Hahaha, that weighted average is like 90% @EVNow, who is the most bullish of the four of us