Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[FrankSG]

Hypothetically, to the moon and beyond, at escape velocity.

But close to $1b in Q4 GAAP profits is not going to happen: the $200m profits estimated by @luvb2b is from a reliable model with a good track record.

I think @luvb2b is estimating ~$300m GAAP profits in Q4'19.

$1B in GAAP profits is going to happen in Q4, but we'll have to wait another 12 months for that

 

[defc0n]

Should not look at things in such a black and white view. Many years ago when Steve Jobs asked Warren Buffett what to do with the cash that Apple was generating. Buffett suggested to buyback Apple shares. Jobs didn't buy back. If he did, AAPL now would be above $2000 a share, instead of $300. Eventually Apple did do large scale share buyback in recent years, but instead of buying at $8~10, they bought back at $100~$200. The late share buyback is still a good move, it would have been much better if they did earlier.

If Tesla is generating $5B free cash a year, and the stock is super cheap from long term view, spending half billion to buy back shares would do wonders. Some people may think stock price has no effect on the business. The effect is huge to the employees, business partners, investors, debt cost, and demand.

For growth, Tesla made it clear that going forward they will copy the Shanghai Gigafactory model. Which means money comes from local banks, factory is constructed in phases, cashflow from first phase will pay for the second and third phases. They will need very little cash from the company.

Sooner or later Tesla will buyback half of the shares.

yeah your employees will all want to cash out and retire after a huge windfall

 

[Causalien]

Latest short interest just posted: 26,259,152 shares were held short as of 12/31 settlement:

Tesla, Inc. Common Stock (TSLA) Short Interest

This settlement date reflects the initial run to $420 - $430

Short interest declined by 1,237,602 shares since the last reporting period.

While the number of shares shorted declined, the aggregate size of short positions INCREASED by $1.7 billion during this period due to the significant rise in share price.

A lot less covering than I thought.

Guessing another 1.5 billion fron dec 31 to now. We have a long way to go before things get to normal.

 

[TradingInvest]

yeah your employees will all want to cash out and retire after a huge windfall

Didn't happen to Apple, Google, MicroSoft and Amazon, even though their stocks went up a lot. Sure some employees will quit, all these companies are able to attract more great people. On the other hand, if your stock is not doing well, other companies will start to lure away your people.

Buyback doesn't have to drive up the stock. There are many ways to handle it. For example, they could sell out of money Puts, if the stock goes lower, they acquire the shares at low price. If the stock doesn't drop, they pocket the premium, keep selling more Puts. It's like a large trader going against the shorts. It makes shorts' life much more difficult.

 

[EVNow]

Hahaha, that weighted average is like 90% @EVNow, who is the most bullish of the four of us

@willow_hiller should weight inversely by the # of posts.

BTW, I'll post updated numbers this weekend. There was an error that pushed up the EPS. My new EPS is lower than @luvb2b's.

 

[TradingInvest]

A lot less covering than I thought.

Guessing another 1.5 billion fron dec 31 to now. We have a long way to go before things get to normal.

Having a large short position is the normal. Tesla's shares are slowly falling into permanent holders' hands. The longer this situation continues, the more difficult for shorts to get out. I think during the next 10 years when the stock gradually rallies to $5k~10k, the stock will always seems to be expensive, shorts will repeatedly try to attack it because $700 seems to be the absolute top, then $1000 seems to be the top, then $1200, $1500... the short shares will stay, just different shorts suffer in each round.

I buy and hold TSLA shares. When shorts attack, I add more shares. I have been doing this for a long time. I don't know what shorts can do about it.

 

[ReflexFunds]

Tesla Model 3 SR+ & P and Model S & X US delivery estimates have moved to 8-11 weeks in the configurator. Model 3 AWD is at 7-10 weeks.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Today's VWAP was $478.96 on 13,103,994 shares for $6,276,345,352.83 in trade$.

Pre-market volume was 352,834 shrs, including 184,161 shares traded b4 08:00 hrs.
After-hrs volume was 239,025 shares, including 131,251 shares traded at 16:02 hrs.

 

[ggr]

He posted on December 31st. He was pretty off (again) -- in fact he was off by about 1.3M shares:

He was off by less than 5%. That's a lot closer than some predictions we see...

 

[willow_hiller]

@willow_hiller should weight inversely by the # of posts.

No real way to weight between you 4, so I thought I would have a bit of fun with it.

Unless you want to objectively quantify your own accuracy

That being said, I really appreciate all the work you put into your estimates!

 

[EVNow]

Tesla Model 3 SR+ & P and Model S & X US delivery estimates have moved to 8-11 weeks in the configurator. Model 3 AWD is at 7-10 weeks.

So they think they will deliver mostly to EU and ROW in the first 2 months.

I've to say if they manage to deliver > 100k cars in Q1, shorts will be absolutely squeezed.

 

[Beltsbear]

Tesla Model 3 SR+ & P and Model S & X US delivery estimates have moved to 8-11 weeks in the configurator. Model 3 AWD is at 7-10 weeks.

Uk demand is going to be very high. Expect many ships being loaded.

 

[kengchang]

More OpEx reduction....

 

[humbaba]

I realize OT, but a moment for Neil Peart

Neil Peart of Rush dead at 67, famous musicians mourn the drumming virtuoso: "The greatest of all time"

 

[Green Pete]

A simple, but common reason, why people will want their own car.
Family with child(ren) in car seats - do you want to be mounting and dismounting the car seat anytime you go somewhere in a robotaxi, or do you want your own car you can leave the seats installed in along with other child stuff?
- corollary: does Tesla want to stop selling to this audience? My thinking is that Tesla wants to continue serving this audience. You're thinking that the demand for robotaxis and their financial results will be so good that Tesla will be willing to sacrifice this audience.

Do I think that when Tesla proves that the base model of 35k + software will generate an annual revenue of 30k that Tesla will sell the software for 30k and people will by 10x+ Teslas at a time for an annual ROI of ~50%? Yes. Yes I do.

 

[EVNow]

He posted on December 31st. He was pretty off (again) -- in fact he was off by about 1.3M shares:

Short interest declined by 1,237,602 shares since the last reporting period.

He was off by less than 5%. That's a lot closer than some predictions we see...

Taking the numbers posted above at face value - he wasn't off by 5%. He was off by over 100%.

The change from the last report was -1.2M. He said the change was +0.1M.

 

[EVNow]

Do I think that when Tesla proves that the base model of 35k + software will generate an annual revenue of 30k that Tesla will sell the software for 30k and people will by 10x+ Teslas at a time for an annual ROI of ~50%? Yes. Yes I do.

Ground Hog day. We keep talking about this over and over.

If Tesla selling a car would result is excessive profits for the buyer, Tesla will sell for a larger price - because they will have limited # of cars to sell. If they don't sell it for a much higher price, the guy who bought it will.

 

[Chickenlittle]

So musk changed twitter name to buff mage. So a reference to Warcraft but any interpretations? Ideas from my kids, a joke (magicians are thin not buff) or a powerful magician?

 

[Curt Renz]

Bloomberg Technology - this evening:

 

[MarcusMaximus]

So musk changed twitter name to buff mage. So a reference to Warcraft but any interpretations? Ideas from my kids, a joke (magicians are thin not buff) or a powerful magician?

I believe it’s actually a reference to The Witcher.