Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Cherry Wine]

Would love to see a close above $475.

 

[jerry33]

I didn't realize they were that expensive. Why would you ever buy one?

Someone totaled her car, and nothing else was available. (Today you would modify that to say nothing else was available unless you wanted to play chauffeur for a couple of months.)

 

[jerry33]

Cause, for example here in Colorado, that means you can pay 'sticker' and get the absolute base for $20k. Or the mid-trim Plus for $28k. And Nissan buyers generally don't pay sticker. But once that $7500 is gone, and it's a straight-up choice between an SR+ 3 and any of these Leafs (leaves?)? Not a chance. Nissan will either need to have a big price cut at the ready, or new Leaf sales in the US will drop off a cliff.

By the time you leave the dealer, it will work out much closer to $50K.

 

[PhaseWhite]

There is no reason on earth Tesla would want to buy back stock. That takes cash and cash is the precious commodity for a growing company.

(Gets up on stock buy back soapbox):
Buying back stock means you have run out of ideas to create value. IBM is the perfect example of how to destroy value through stock buybacks. Since 1995 IBM spent $199B on stock buybacks. Their current market cap is $121B.
IBM's Stock Buybacks Have Not Produced Societal Wealth
(Gets off soapbox)

Thankfully I don't think Musk will run out of ideas as long as he's in charge.

 

[Zaxxon]

By the time you leave the dealer, it will work out much closer to $50K.

No, I'm not kidding--you can walk into Boulder Nissan and walk out with a base Leaf S for $15k after tax credits. I actually did this back in early 2017 while awaiting my Model 3 reservation to come due. Bought the car, used it for a year and a half, and traded it in when my 3 was ready it for almost exactly my net cost after tax credits, so it was 'free' aside from the cost of the juice I put into it. I actually wonder what percentage of Leaf sales took this approach, as a super-inexpensive EV stepping-stone to a Tesla.

 

[Tslynk67]

this is funny.

Is that an SNL CNBC parody? All these super-serious guys talking about farts even worse, the old guy wasn't even aware of Fart Mode - how can se seriously comment on $TSLA when he doesn't know about that, it's one of the key selling points these days.

And then the Tim (no not shortytim), he looked like a doped lizard or something, then pops up with Musk putting Fart Mode in cars and how the traditional auto makers don't have that ability.

Seriously surreal stuff! It's a must-watch folks, especially on this really, really boring SP day.

On topic - I was hoping for a bit more dip today to buy back in on some discounted calls, but they haven't shifted much. Even a pop would have been nice, it's a bit weird not to have an ATH for once...

 

[Curt Renz]

It has become almost impossible to wade through engineering discussions to find posts related to today's Tesla stock price movements. There are other TMC forums better suited to non-financial matters.

 

[Beltsbear]

Starts from 2021, Tesla will sell almost one million vehicles a year, and continue to increase 50~80% each following year.
If shorts manage to keep the stock below 500 in longer term, Tesla will have enough cash to keep buying back stock. Shorts either have to let the stock go up, or let Tesla cancel stock at low price. It's a tough game for shorts.

You buy back stock if you can't invest it well. In 2021 Tesla will probably have plenty of places to invest in factories for solar and batteries even if the EV market was tapped out (It won't be). Apple did a smart move buying back stock, because they could not make a big enough return on their profits as the market for their products is near the limit. While Tesla's mission is not a high stock price, in 2025 they might be getting near the limits of growth if they keep growing at 50% a year. Of course they could just expand into energy production, and start gobbling large parts of the grid up and turning them green (at a profit).

 

[TradingInvest]

There is no reason on earth Tesla would want to buy back stock. That takes cash and cash is the precious commodity for a growing company.

Should not look at things in such a black and white view. Many years ago when Steve Jobs asked Warren Buffett what to do with the cash that Apple was generating. Buffett suggested to buyback Apple shares. Jobs didn't buy back. If he did, AAPL now would be above $2000 a share, instead of $300. Eventually Apple did do large scale share buyback in recent years, but instead of buying at $8~10, they bought back at $100~$200. The late share buyback is still a good move, it would have been much better if they did earlier.

If Tesla is generating $5B free cash a year, and the stock is super cheap from long term view, spending half billion to buy back shares would do wonders. Some people may think stock price has no effect on the business. The effect is huge to the employees, business partners, investors, debt cost, and demand.

For growth, Tesla made it clear that going forward they will copy the Shanghai Gigafactory model. Which means money comes from local banks, factory is constructed in phases, cashflow from first phase will pay for the second and third phases. They will need very little cash from the company.

Sooner or later Tesla will buyback half of the shares.

 

[Tslynk67]

Come on, give us some sport for the day, go green, go green!!!

Edit: blah, booooring!

 

[Mike Smith]

GM buys Super Bowl air time to resurrect an all-electric version of the Hummer, sources say

 

[printf42]

GM buys Super Bowl air time to resurrect an all-electric version of the Hummer, sources say

If Tesla ever spend money on ads, buy 5 sec slot right after, and show CyberTruck.
Every car commercial is a Tesla commercial, haha.

 

[Todd Burch]

Now that markets are closed, I can say that we did better today than I was expecting. And the rise into close bodes well for Monday morning opening!

Disclaimer: I know nothing. I just parrot what other people say so that I sound smart.

 

[Cherry Wine]

So while we wait for the official Nasdaq short interest to post, where did this week's volume end up? 99.5M shares. To put that in perspective, here are the other highest weekly volumes back through 2019:

1. Week of January 6th, 2020 (99.5M shares) Open: 440.47 / Close: 478.00 (current week, first full trading week after release of Q4'19 P&D report)
2. Week of May 20th (98M shares) Open: 202.80 / Close: 190.63 NOTE: First full trading week after infamous cost cutting "10 months of cash burn rate" Elon leaked e-mail
3. Week of April 29th (78.7M shares) Open: 235.86 / Close: 255.03 NOTE: Week after Q1 Earnings
4. Week of October 21st (78.1M shares) Open: 258.33 / Close: 328.13 NOTE: Q3 Earnings Week
   
5. Week of April 22nd (78.0M shares) Open: 269.00 / Close: 235.14 NOTE: Autonomy Day / Q1 Earnings Week
6. Week of June 3rd (76.6M shares) Open: 185.51 / Close: 204.50 NOTE: 52-week low
7. Week of December 16th (73.2M shares) Open: 362.55 / Close: 405.59 NOTE: Week of a number of good news developments including TSLA achieving ATHs.

It should be noted that the next highest volume week is in the 50M range, so these are all significantly higher than average volume week.

 

[TradingInvest]

(Gets up on stock buy back soapbox):
Buying back stock means you have run out of ideas to create value. IBM is the perfect example of how to destroy value through stock buybacks. Since 1995 IBM spent $199B on stock buybacks. Their current market cap is $121B.
IBM's Stock Buybacks Have Not Produced Societal Wealth
(Gets off soapbox)

Thankfully I don't think Musk will run out of ideas as long as he's in charge.

I don't think Tesla has any similarities to IBM in 1995.

Tesla's situation is more like Apple, Microsoft, Amazon and Google in the early years. Tesla will grow into a very large company, Elon Musk knows it. All of these companies have been buying back huge amount of their own stocks, didn't prevent them from growing.

If my memory is correct, more than 20 years ago, MicroSoft borrowed $1B from banks to buy back their own shares. In the past 20 years they have been buying back large amount almost every year. They spent more than $100B to buyback shares from 2004 to 2013, at price around $26. Now it's at $160.

Edit: Bill Gates's best buddy is Warren Buffett. He always asks Buffett about stock matters. It's very likely Gates asked Buffett about MicroSoft's share buyback and got approved or encouraged.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Now that markets are closed, I can say that we did better today than I was expecting. And the rise into close bodes well for Monday morning opening!

Disclaimer: I know nothing. I just parrot what other people say so that I sound smart.

I'm of two minds regarding today's closing price. 1) The support level that seems to be building at the $475 price held, however; 2) Chartists would say that today's close below yesterday's closing price is confirmation of a "top" and a signal to sell (for traders, not investors, for whom what does it matter what the stock does in the next weeks or even months?).

Make of that what you will.

EDIT: Regarding the "chart" comment, don't just take my word for it. The pattern is called a "dark cloud cover".

 

[StealthP3D]

If shorts manage to keep the stock below 500 in longer term...

We obviously have completely different definitions of what "longer term" means. Because Tesla is going over $500 in the shorter term whether the shorts like it or not. Way over $500. The shorts won't have any say in the matter.

 

[StealthP3D]

I'm of two minds regarding today's closing price. 1) The support level that seems to be building at the $475 price held, however; 2) Chartists would say that today's close below yesterday's closing price is confirmation of a "top" and a signal to sell (for traders, not investors, for whom what does it matter what the stock does in the next weeks or even months?).

That the most ridiculous statement ever. Unless you want to define "top" as the highest price in three days. When you said "trader" I think you forgot to put the word "day" in there!

I could show you a hundred charts with the same pause in a bull run that went on to double and quadruple before you could say "I missed the boat". It happens all-the-time.

 

[JusRelax]

Apparenty, according to Sean Mitchell, the Amazon van with the electric drivetrain is not powered by Rivian.

 

[dha]

Latest short interest just posted: 26,259,152 shares were held short as of 12/31 settlement:

Tesla, Inc. Common Stock (TSLA) Short Interest

This settlement date reflects the initial run to $420 - $430

Short interest declined by 1,237,602 shares since the last reporting period.

While the number of shares shorted declined, the aggregate size of short positions INCREASED by $1.7 billion during this period due to the significant rise in share price.