Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[FrankSG]

Well, all the discussion here did not change my opinion much regarding trading TSLA.

I will hold on to my TSLA shares with an iron grip for the next few years and my retirement account has an even longer time horizon of 20 years, so yeah, lets roll - not selling until I see I can retire early.

Most of my calls have are 2022 Jan & Jun, so I will ride out the volatility with these, hopefully.

I was somewhat affected by the peer pressure, especially considering how stupid it was for me to recently sell 320c, 420c & 600c for having no vision of bigger appreciation.

So, here's my sacrifice to the altar of insanity
View attachment 500054

That's $2,200 that I pretty much kissed goodbye.

What I'm thinking:
1. @anthonyj is expecting 3x profit in Q4 compared to Q3.
I saw couple other references to 2x, including one by DaveT. 2x may be sufficient to screw with many analysts/funds heads and justify higher future valuation.
2. If EM talks about 4-5 years horizon in ER as he intended, this may demonstrate the leaving train to some passengers still in doubts whether to get in.
3. Sounds like the Y may move up yet again. My understanding was ~end of Q2 for mid volume production- like 1k/w, it currently feels like this may advance by a couple of months.

These things give some chance to those $2.2k.

Q4 might be the last time when coming things are not yet fully expected and EM's credibility is not fully vetted...

Are you me?

I also bought a very small amount of the Feb21 $800s at the exact same price ($2.20) as you did yesterday.

Fully expecting to lose this small bet, but if:

• Macros hold up
• Earnings surprise with performance boost, larger amount of credits sold, perhaps further margin improvements (not expecting these, but possible)
• Hype around Q1 and total 2020 guidance, and perhaps next couple years outlook
• More people jumping in who are still on the fence because Q3 could've been a fluke
• Squeeze + delta hedging + more FOMO feedback loop

If all this comes together (maybe 5-10% chance?), maybe we'll see $900 or $1000 in a month.

Earnings consensus rising in the last few days make me feel worse about our chances, because it'll be harder to beat consensus.

The post today about Amazon P/E ratios in the past five years makes me feel slightly better about our chances, because apparently Amazon was at a 400-500x P/E ratio during its early growth phase in 2015. If earnings surprises and hits $2 or $2.5 GAAP EPS (my actual estimate is $1.39), that'd be a yearly run rate of $8-10 EPS, so it would only require one fourth of Amazon's 2015 P/E ratio to pay off.

Probably not happening, but risk reward seemed there for a tiny speculative bet.

 

[humbaba]

Tesla Shorts Vs. Beyond Meat Shorts: Who's Getting Squeezed Harder?

Dick warned Tesla and Beyond Meat traders these types of short squeezes can often last much longer than expected. Elconin said attempting to analyze Tesla technicals is essentially pointless until the squeeze is over.

“There’s an identifiable pattern here. It’s called the rocketship pattern,” Dick said. He even got burned attempting to short Tesla at $498 before cutting his losses quickly at $501.

Ooo... those guys are brainiacs, including the writer.

When fundamentals go out the window and market dynamics take their grip on stocks like Tesla and Beyond Meat, it’s extremely difficult to make an argument for either buying or shorting a stock in the near term. Longs, shorts and short-term traders should all be extremely cautious with both these stocks in the coming days.

Wow. Yeah. Tesla investors are in the grip of "market dynamics"

I can agree with their contention that "it is extremely difficult to make an argument for ... shorting [Tesla]" but that's where the agreement ends. Notice he does not advise caution in selling $TSLA -- I'm sure he'd like to cover, or knows someone who'd like to cover. But the reasons to buy $TSLA are the fundamentals. But we all knew that.

But the part you highlighted about "rocket ship pattern" ... that's pretty good. Maybe they should call it "the SpaceX package" and avoid shorting any stock affiliated in some fashion with Musk.


edit: ooo ooo, nearly missed this one

At the same time, the percentage of those messages reflecting bullish sentiment [about $TSLA] has dropped from 81.3% to 79%.

Hear that guys? #TSLAQ is pumping up the volume!

 

[Cattledog]

Ok, this rally is nuts. Market cap is at $97.0B while VW has a cap of $101.5B. Are we prepared to convince the market that Tesla really worth more than Volkswagen? Is this price level $538/share sustainable. I mean, come on, folks! I'm not selling. But it's like 8:15 in the evening: time for the party to be over! I mean, come on!! People, go home already.

-Grumpy old guy thesis

Umm, many places parties aren't even started at 8:15. Let's hope this is one of those places...

 

[MC3OZ]

But you're Dutch! You're the only people in the world who get to wear orange riding jackets in the world equestrian competitions!

Exactly the Dutch are famous for cornering the market in Tulips and Orange.... the short squeeze in Orange will be brutal...

 

[Thekiwi]

EDIT: Note this is @lascavarian quoting Cathie Wood's interview.

I have to disagree on this one point since I really doubt Tesla Network, aka RoboTaxis will be operating by the end of next year. Anyone who has FSD and tries to use it knows what I mean. It will be a huge step from FSD working with a human behind the wheel, to true antonymous cars.

So put me in the category of putting zero value on FSD. I actually place a pretty low value on solar also until I see solar roof truly scaling. It is a good product but we haven't yet seen the growth from them to put much of a value on it. I'd love to be proven wrong, but solar is becoming a commodity market at this point with a lot of competition, so Tesla needs to figure out where to go with that. The California mandate may help but it doesn't actually mandate panels on a roof so somewhat doubtful.

Fortunately, I think there are plenty of other reasons to be excited about where they are going. Really hyped for battery day since I want to see that roadmap to 2TWH of battery capability. Affordable storage is the biggest thing holding back renewables from flat out taking over, and if Tesla cracks that along with Semis, Trucks, etc, than I think we will all be super happy with the SP.

I agree with the unlikelyhood of an autonomous Tesla network being online by end of next year, but of course would love to be proven wrong. However we might see some limited rollout mimicking the boring tunnel Las Vegas mini transit system (but above ground) whereby autonomous Teslas on a fixed & closed private pathway might be used (eg maybe at airports or stadiums/theme parks where guests usually have to walk quite far to get too a distant carpark.)

==========

Are you me?

I also bought a very small amount of the Feb21 $800s at the exact same price ($2.20) as you did yesterday.

Fully expecting to lose this small bet, but if:

• Macros hold up
• Earnings surprise with performance boost, larger amount of credits sold, perhaps further margin improvements (not expecting these, but possible)
• Hype around Q1 and total 2020 guidance, and perhaps next couple years outlook
• More people jumping in who are still on the fence because Q3 could've been a fluke
• Squeeze + delta hedging + more FOMO feedback loop

If all this comes together (maybe 5-10% chance?), maybe we'll see $900 or $1000 in a month.

Earnings consensus rising in the last few days make me feel worse about our chances, because it'll be harder to beat consensus.

The post today about Amazon P/E ratios in the past five years makes me feel slightly better about our chances, because apparently Amazon was at a 400-500x P/E ratio during its early growth phase in 2015. If earnings surprises and hits $2 or $2.5 GAAP EPS (my actual estimate is $1.39), that'd be a yearly run rate of $8-10 EPS, so it would only require one fourth of Amazon's 2015 P/E ratio to pay off.

Probably not happening, but risk reward seemed there for a tiny speculative bet.

I would ignore comparisons to Amazons P/E ratio, as it was previously being managed to basically be as close to zero net profit as possible for a long time (management didn't want to pay a penny in net income taxes when they could use that to re-invest into new opportunities instead).

A better metric to look at would be amazons cash from operations history:

 

[ZeApelido]

First post. I prefer to just read, but I'll give a little back.

The Model Y just appeared as a model in the NHTSA VIN database.

TESLA, INC.

You can also decode VINs starting with 5YJY now.

Welcome to VIN Decoding :: provided by vPIC

Hmm, when did this happen for the Model 3?

 

[Dutchie]

Ok, this rally is nuts. Market cap is at $97.0B while VW has a cap of $101.5B. Are we prepared to convince the market that Tesla really worth more than Volkswagen? Is this price level $538/share sustainable. I mean, come on, folks! I'm not selling. But it's like 8:15 in the evening: time for the party to be over! I mean, come on!! People, go home already.

-Grumpy old guy thesis

I don't understand why we keep comparing them to other car manufacturers. One can also say that Tesla is a car dealer which happens to make their own cars. Auto Nation is one of the largest (if not the larges) car dealer in the US. Their market cap is 4 billion. Nobody is saying "oh, this is nuts, TSLA is trading almost 25 times the value of Auto Nation.."

We all know Tesla does Solar, battery storage etc.

 

[FrankSG]

Why BlackRock May Be About to Pump Tesla (TSLA) Stock to the Moon • NewsCream

• BlackRock CEO Larry Fink has indicated the $7 trillion asset manager intends to divest from fossil fuels to greener investments amid a “climate crisis.”
• Already a large holder of Tesla stock, this could see the world’s largest holder of fossil fuels invest more heavily in Elon Musk’s buoyant EV manufacturer.
• Currently trading over $530 per share, Jim Cramer believes TSLA is Fink’s “ultimate stock.”

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) stock has been on a historic tear. The EV manufacturer’s market-cap is almost at $100 billion, and it is basking in the warm glow of strong growth prospects and risk-on trading conditions in the U.S. stock market.

Things could still get even better for Elon Musk. The world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock, announced a shift towards sustainable investments. And TSLA might just be the firm’s new crown jewel.

Larry Fink Makes Seismic Change to BlackRock’s Investment Focus
BlackRock and Larry Fink could send Tesla stock even further into the stratosphere. | Source: AP Photo/Mark Lennihan

BlackRock manages an eye-watering $7 trillion fortune and oversees a portfolio that is heavily invested in fossil fuels. That’s about to change.

In his 2020 CEO letter, BlackRock chief executive Larry Fink announced the “climate crisis” as the catalyst for the stock market behemoth’s planned re-allocation, stating,

We will see changes in capital allocation more quickly than we see changes to the climate itself. In the near future – and sooner than most anticipate – there will be a significant reallocation of capital.

He was careful not to state there was going to be a total divestment from oil companies. This would be very impractical from a liquidity standpoint. BlackRock invests more in fossil-fuel reserves than anyone else in the world.

Yeah, I think the impact of this BlackRock announcement on TSLA is actually quite significant. I heard on CNBC that there is some sort of sustainability conference next week? They said all the investors will be talking about this BlackRock announcement there next week.

TSLA is literally the ultimate sustainable future stock. It's been a large catalyst in moving the world to a more sustainable future, clearly in transportation, and thus far to a lesser degree in energy generation/storage.

If this BlackRock announcement catches on in the wealth management circles, TSLA could become the must own stock, and there's a very limited amount of shares left:

• ~20% is in the hands of Elon
• 7.5% is in the hands of Baillie Gifford
• Another ~5% is possibly in the hands of big accumulators that have caused the recent run up
• BlackRock is holding 3.5% as of Sep 29. They could've increased their position by a few % prior to this letter.
• Larry Ellison has like 2-3%?
• ARK is holding almost 1%.
• Probably a few % is in the hands of retail investors that are not selling the majority of their holdings for 5-10 years until TSLA achieves more of its potential
• I believe somebody mentioned a while back that Capital World Investors who are holding 6.5% are also in it for the long haul?

That could be almost 50% of the available number of shares in the hands of longs that are not going to sell any time soon, or simply not at any price (Elon).

Assuming a large new buyer accumulating a 5% stake was the biggest catalyst for the huge 67% run up from $330 to $550, and that still close to 15% of all shares are short, creating the illusion of 65% of 180M shares still available for purchase when in fact only 50% of 180M are still available for people who want to go long. I wonder what kind of price action we will see if another big fund decides they want a 5% stake, or when S&P 500 inclusion leads to the forced purchase of perhaps as much as 15-20M shares as @ReflexFunds has theorized or 10% of all shares.

Bad Q4 earnings could put a damper on everything, and valuation is going to look crazier and crazier to people who don't have an accurate picture of where Tesla is going in 5 and 10 years. However, with the available number of shares for people wanting to get in on TSLA long term shrinking, still no confirmed reduction in the number of shares sold short, and the option delta hedging feedback loop, TSLA upward momentum could increase going forward.

Not investment advice, and I don't have much confidence in my ability to predict short term stock movements, but I'm sure as hell excited to watch the next few weeks and months unfold.

 

[JustSaying]

Problem is shipping liquids, though. I actually ordered a bunch of Palo Alto Firefighters Hot Pepper Sauce but it was cancelled because US Post refused to ship it overseas. Such a pity, I'm almost out and it would have made a fantastic present for the holidays.

The same fate will likely befall Teslaquilla, I fear. Otherwise a typically brilliant marketing idea!

Maybe it should to be described as Olive oil and ship via UPS or FedEx.

MOD: Yet another LINE OF O/T POSTS THAT HAVE GONE PAST THEIR SELL-BY DATE.

THE END.

 

[ammulder]

I agree with the unlikelyhood of an autonomous Tesla network being online by end of next year, but of course would love to be proven wrong.

Whatever it was that claimed the Tesla Network would be online in that time frame -- did it actually specify Robotaxis? I thought I heard that there's already a Tesla Network app that employees are beta testing. What if they plan to release the app and start the Tesla Network as a "driverful" service with Tesla owners, with a long-term plan of moving to hands-free-driver and then driverless robotaxis if and when that stuff is released and government approved?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Softball: for those tired of winning

 

[Artful Dodger]

Hardball: for those tired of losing

P.S. Watch thru the video for the cat-fight between the 2 'Squelch Box' hosts (starts with the 'carbon' trigger word at about 8:45): "DON'T INTERRUPT ME!" -- that's not a Talking head, that's a Cement-head. And that's somebody who's panicking as they slowly come to realize they picked the losing side. I friggin' luv'd it!

 

[madodel]

Eh, nope. Going to run out of orange. And time

Doesn't the Netherlands have an endless supply of orange?

 

[SpeedGoat]

just bought more 11 shares @ $540 ish .. hope this is not a dumb move

I think we are all hoping it isn't...

 

[Prunesquallor]

Let's park @ $570

Elon would agree.

 

[ggr]

So, to get to $6000 in 5 years, assuming 261 trading days per year:
Initial value 537.89
Number of periods 1305
Future compounded value 6000
Compound growth rate 0.184988%

So tomorrow, if we don't increase by $0.968202, that is, above $538.85, the shorts will say "Cathie Wood is wrong!". On the other hand, above 538.86, we can say she was conservative!

Edit: I initially misplaced the decimal point on my calculator, thought we had to get nearly $10...

 

[SunCatcher]

Hardball: for those tired of losing

P.S. Watch thru to the 10 min mark for the cat-fight between the 2 'Squack-Box' hosts. I friggin' luv'd it!

Wow. Seachange happening at Squakbox CNBC. This was quite enlightening. Old guard is clearly losing ground, but won't give up without a catfight, as you put it. But I go away from this believing that the change is upon us.

 

[SunCatcher]

Hardball: for those tired of losing

P.S. Watch thru the video for the cat-fight between the 2 'Squelch Box' hosts (starts with the 'carbon' trigger word at about 8:45): "DON'T INTERRUPT ME!" -- that's not a Talking head, that's a Cement-head. And that's somebody who's panicking as they slowly come to realize they picked the losing side. I friggin' luv'd it!

"Squelch Box" LOL. Well named.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Wow. Seachange happening at Squakbox CNBC. This was quite enlightening. Old guard is clearly losing ground, but won't give up without a catfight, as you put it. But I go away from this believing that the change is upon us.

Lol, 'see-change' for a space-faring civilizaiton. Personally, I've been waiting for this since the waning days of Mariner 6/7 and Skylab. Still hummin' those ol' tunes though, now with renewed hope for the future.

We're flyin' spaceships 'round the stars, getting faster by the hour
Pretty soon we'll be on Mars, build another ivory tower
Through all the praise that you borrow, there's still hunger and sorrow
And then after it's all said and done
Though we've come a long, long way,
this old world's not much better than it was​

Song credit: Ian Thomas

 

[wreese]

Hmm, when did this happen for the Model 3?

I was not able to determine that, but the timeframe could easily differ anyway. I checked the database almost daily as it is seemed like one of the items required prior to the start of actual production and now it is off Tesla's todo list.