Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Prunesquallor]

So, to get to $6000 in 5 years, assuming 261 trading days per year:
Initial value 537.89
Number of periods 1305
Future compounded value 6000
Compound growth rate 0.184988%

So tomorrow, if we don't increase by $0.968202, that is, above $538.85, the shorts will say "Cathie Wood is wrong!". On the other hand, above 538.86, we can say she was conservative!

Edit: I initially misplaced the decimal point on my calculator, thought we had to get nearly $10...

I like this. Now someone can build a “Path to $6000” spreadsheet and we can see if we are on track.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Hardball: for those tired of losing

P.S. Watch thru the video for the cat-fight between the 2 'Squelch Box' hosts (starts with the 'carbon' trigger word at about 8:45): "DON'T INTERRUPT ME!" -- that's not a Talking head, that's a Cement-head. And that's somebody who's panicking as they slowly come to realize they picked the losing side. I friggin' luv'd it!

Wow! First time I have seen them go after each other like this. Interesting to watch.

Dan

 

[Dutchie]

Doesn't the Netherlands have an endless supply of orange?

Yes we do, and thanks to us your carrot is orange too!

How did carrots become orange?

 

[Beltsbear]

So, to get to $6000 in 5 years, assuming 261 trading days per year:
Initial value 537.89
Number of periods 1305
Future compounded value 6000
Compound growth rate 0.184988%

So tomorrow, if we don't increase by $0.968202, that is, above $538.85, the shorts will say "Cathie Wood is wrong!". On the other hand, above 538.86, we can say she was conservative!

Edit: I initially misplaced the decimal point on my calculator, thought we had to get nearly $10...

the path to $6000 is going to involve days with huge gains in a single day. One sea change day will be when FSD reaches a point it can be done without a person in the car. That day could be a bigger gain then the current value of the stock today.

 

[JustMe]

Hardball: for those tired of losing

P.S. Watch thru the video for the cat-fight between the 2 'Squelch Box' hosts (starts with the 'carbon' trigger word at about 8:45): "DON'T INTERRUPT ME!" -- that's not a Talking head, that's a Cement-head. And that's somebody who's panicking as they slowly come to realize they picked the losing side. I friggin' luv'd it!

“Cement Head” said he’s a scientist. I have my doubts. Memorizing the names of the ten worst climate scientists in America does not a scientist make.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Here is a summary of today's trading, as of 16:00 hrs EST:

VWAP: $538.28
Shares: 28,634,564
Traded: $15,413,283,969.41​

This includes 1,525,707 shares traded during the Pre-market session (5.33% of today), including 648,211 shares traded before 08:00 hrs EST

Here is a summary of today's After-hrs trading, as of 20:00 hrs EST:

After-hrs VWAP: $538.51
Shares: 494,180
Traded: $266,121,455.15​

In spite of the appearance of a TSLA fade After-hrs, in reality it merely followed macros: (see the QQQ in the chart below for an After-hrs proxy to the NASDAQ-100 index)

Cheers!

 

[Skryll]

Here is a summary of today's After-hrs trading, as of 20:00 hrs EST:

After-hrs VWAP: $538.51
Shares: 494,180
Traded: $266,121,455.15​

In spite of the appearance of a TSLA fade After-hrs, in reality it merely followed macros: (see the QQQ in the chart below for an After-hrs proxy to the NASDAQ-100 index)

View attachment 500320
Cheers!

Grafana ?

 

[MartinAustin]

Hardball: for those tired of losing

P.S. Watch thru the video for the cat-fight between the 2 'Squelch Box' hosts (starts with the 'carbon' trigger word at about 8:45): "DON'T INTERRUPT ME!" -- that's not a Talking head, that's a Cement-head. And that's somebody who's panicking as they slowly come to realize they picked the losing side. I friggin' luv'd it!

THANK YOU THANK YOU for posting that!

LOVED watching Joe Kernen squirm and lose his mind.

For years he has played his Grumpy Conservative character on this show and his security blanket is finally unravelling for him.

I doubt he has ridden in a Tesla yet. He joked one time "but they're still running on dirty coal..."

 

[Bet TSLA]

It's like when people got all excited about GoPro....China can make a 99% as good version for 40% the cost. Anyone can make a Beyond burger or close to it.

And any time I'm in Whole Foods the BYND cabinet is being completely ignored. Like a packed Center City PHL Whole Foods with people elbowing for chicken....and the door doesn't even open. May have to go sit there for a half day to confirm then short.

Replied over there, where this OT discussion should be.

MOD: This one barely gets to stay.

 

[SunCatcher]

THANK YOU THANK YOU for posting that!

LOVED watching Joe Kernen squirm and lose his mind.

For years he has played his Grumpy Conservative character on this show and his security blanket is finally unravelling for him.

I doubt he has ridden in a Tesla yet. He joked one time "but they're still running on dirty coal..."

This guy has the audacity to sit there surfing his Amazon account (or whatever he's doing), while his co-hosts run the show, and then bark at his colleague, "don't interrupt me", when he's challenged. Typical old guard demand for respect, while showing none.

Sometimes I think this world is going to be so much better off when the older generations are dead and gone. Unfortunately, that means me too, but the younger human beings on the planet have so much repair work to do, and are faced with obstacles presented by those who created the problems in the first place.

End of rant.

 

[StealthP3D]

Ok, this rally is nuts. Market cap is at $97.0B while VW has a cap of $101.5B. Are we prepared to convince the market that Tesla really worth more than Volkswagen?

A better question is: "Are VW shareholders ready to convince the market they are worth just as much as Tesla?"

The world marches on.

 

[steve3]

I think this is the beginning of market recognition of Tesla's future potential -- both as a car manufacturer and as more than a car manufacturer

Along this line, very interesting comment by Tasha Keeney at the 1 minute mark, expecting shops to start shifting Tesla coverage away from their traditional auto analysts and give it to their tech analysts, and says why she sees it can happen now. Huge if that turning point is upon us.
Twitter

Edit: when, and not if, this happens, it will usher in the market’s recognition of the “Tesla Twenties.”
Here’s the interview on YouTube

 

[RobStark]

I don't understand why we keep comparing them to other car manufacturers. One can also say that Tesla is a car dealer which happens to make their own cars. Auto Nation is one of the largest (if not the larges) car dealer in the US. Their market cap is 4 billion. Nobody is saying "oh, this is nuts, TSLA is trading almost 25 times the value of Auto Nation.."

We all know Tesla does Solar, battery storage etc.

Virtually all automotive OEMs are conglomerates and like Tesla virtually all of them get the vast majority of their income and profit from selling cars.

There are no companies exactly like Tesla. Other companies that manufacture cars are the closest comparable.

Many automotive OEMs own many though not all of their dealerships in Europe for example.

Daimler is roughly 50% cars,25% heavy trucks, 25% "other".

Nissan sells commercial battery energy storage in Europe and Japan.

 

[Quesder]

Man I don’t know how to deal with my TESLA shares now. I wishED I had sold it at $434 then it dropped to $411. I wished I had sold it at $496 and then it dropped to $473. I wished I had sold it at $546 and then it dropped to $538

I sold some MSFT shares today and got $10000. I don’t knn no ow whether it is a good point to buy more TSLA shares, although I believe $600 is not a problem. Or maybe $4000 in 5 years?

 

[Zaxxon]

Wow. Seachange happening at Squakbox CNBC. This was quite enlightening. Old guard is clearly losing ground, but won't give up without a catfight, as you put it. But I go away from this believing that the change is upon us.

Sheesh. I know that 'triggered' is a term generally applied to the younger generation, but that dude was majorly triggered by Fink's comments and Ross-Sorkin's thoughts.

“Cement Head” said he’s a scientist. I have my doubts. Memorizing the names of the ten worst climate scientists in America does not a scientist make.

Uhh, correct--attempting to refute the overwhelming scientific consensus by listing a tiny minority is... Not scientific. This is the same guy who comments that EVs are 'powered by dirty coal' in an attempt to discredit them--a statement that is both 1) generally not true (it's a small minority of EV owners who get more than a small minority of their charging power from coal today) and 2) irrelevant (EVs are still generally cleaner than comparable ICE cars even in the most coal-heavy electricity markets).

Dude is orthogonal to 'scientist.'

 

[Thekiwi]

Virtually all automotive OEMs are conglomerates and like Tesla virtually all of them get the vast majority of their income and profit from selling cars.

There are no companies exactly like Tesla. Other companies that manufacture cars are the closest comparable.

Many automotive OEMs own many though not all of their dealerships in Europe for example.

Daimler is roughly 50% cars,25% heavy trucks, 25% "other".

Nissan sells commercial battery energy storage in Europe and Japan.

I agree its appropriate to compare Tesla to other Auto manufacturers, but find it silly that the comparisons between companies are often made on non-sensical metrics. Prime example: comparing markets caps of GM & Ford combined to Tesla alongside the amount of cars delivered, while completely ignoring the entirely different growth profiles and expected future profitability of the different companies.

Should a company that is growing at ~50% annually, with far higher margins per car, and projected higher total net profits within a few short years be trading higher than legacy non-growth car companies facing new increasing costs related to selling polluting vehicles and vast amounts of stranded ICE assets? Absolutely.

 

[Curt Renz]

This guy has the audacity to sit there surfing his Amazon account (or whatever he's doing), while his co-hosts run the show, and then bark at his colleague, "don't interrupt me", when he's challenged. Typical old guard demand for respect, while showing none.

Sometimes I think this world is going to be so much better off when the older generations are dead and gone. Unfortunately, that means me too, but the younger human beings on the planet have so much repair work to do, and are faced with obstacles presented by those who created the problems in the first place.

End of rant.

Joe is just a kid to me. If I were there, I'd have ordered him to show me 20 push-ups.

 

[Chickenlittle]

Man I don’t know how to deal with my TESLA shares now. I wishED I had sold it at $434 then it dropped to $411. I wished I had sold it at $496 and then it dropped to $473. I wished I had sold it at $546 and then it dropped to $538

I sold some MSFT shares today and got $10000. I don’t knn no ow whether it is a good point to buy more TSLA shares, although I believe $600 is not a problem. Or maybe $4000 in 5 years?

Go back to sleep and dream of more senarios

 

[Chickenlittle]

Joe is just a kid to me. If I were there, I'd have ordered him to show me 20 push-ups.

I avoid that show because of him for 10 years. Time for him to retire if he has an investment account

 

[Yuri_G]

First post. I prefer to just read, but I'll give a little back.

The Model Y just appeared as a model in the NHTSA VIN database.

TESLA, INC.

You can also decode VINs starting with 5YJY now.

Welcome to VIN Decoding :: provided by vPIC

Closest Model 3 reference I could find was this. The article was written July 17, 2017 and the first production 3s were delivered July 28.

Tesla Model 3 "000316" VIN suggests more than 300 release candidates produced

Seems like we're close. Y production really could be a month or so away.