Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tyler34]

If Jonas gives SP > 650 a probability of 23,7% and SP < 360 a probability of 24,7%, so about equal, shouldn’t his price target then be in the middle of those two? At - wait for it - 505, which is where we were trading today. Or does that make too much sense?

Jonas didn't give those probabilities, the option market pricing did.

 

[TradingInvest]

On this post yesterday I got:

• 9 funnies
• 5 informative
• 4 dislikes
• 2 likes

Today opened about 30 USD down from when this was posted. I'm not saying that TSLA is necessarily going down from here. I've had pretty much all my money in Tesla since 2012, and I'm still super bull. But I do find it strange that it is a bit controversial to recommend selling a small portion of the portfolio after the stock has risen about 200% in half a year.

First of all, there is no dislike button, it's called "disagree", sounds different to me. I would hesitate to click dislike, but I give quite a few disagree votes because I simply don't agree with some posts.

This is your original post:
"I sold about 12% of my TSLA stock today. No longer using margin and I’m trying to put some free cash aside in case of lower prices.

I haven’t read much in this thread lately, but I would guess the sentiment is pretty positive here. I think it is a good time to sell some stocks. We’re almost at 100 billion which is a really high valuation. In addition a financial crises is long overdue."

If I were to vote your post, I would have chosen all the buttons. So I understand all those votes you got. Doesn't mean they think you are doing something wrong.

I would vote love, because size control is so important. The best time to increase a bit cash is after a big rally when I feel I am a genius investor.

I would also vote funny, because every week experts have been telling us financial crises is around the conner - for the past 10 years. More importantly, I think this company is going to become a trillion dollar company, saying $100b is very high sounds funny to me.

I would vote disagree because I think the stock is very undervalued from long term view, selling only creates tax burden, then I have to find a good entry to get in again.

I would vote like, because it's prudent and helpful to have some cash on the side. This forum needs this kind of voice.

I would vote informative too, obviously.

 

[mejojo]

On this post yesterday I got:

• 9 funnies
• 5 informative
• 4 dislikes
• 2 likes

Today opened about 30 USD down from when this was posted. I'm not saying that TSLA is necessarily going down from here. I've had pretty much all my money in Tesla since 2012, and I'm still super bull. But I do find it strange that it is a bit controversial to recommend selling a small portion of the portfolio after the stock has risen about 200% in half a year.

Only "controversial" to 4 - 13 readers. 7 explicitly didn't think it controversial, and ALL THE REST, expressed no opinion.

 

[KarenRei]

So Adam Jonas' says his price target of $360 is based on the auto business worth $332 and the autonomy business worth $28.

He values:

Energy business: $0
Solar business: $0
Tesla brand: $0
In-vehicle entertainment and services: $0
Licensing battery technology: $0
Licensing autonomous technology: $0
Tesla Insurance: $0
New future businesses: $0

Supercharger network
Home storage
GRID SCALE STORAGE, WHICH EVERYONE ALWAYS FORGETS


(Sorry, it amazes me how bulls consistently forget this incredibly massive growth market. The world is going to spend 50 trillion dollars over the next 15 years on new generation/grid infrastructure. Tesla is inserting itself solidly into the middle of this.)

 

[avoigt]

VW is struggling. This is a wake up call from the CEO.
VW needs urgent reforms to avoid Nokia's fate, Diess says

 

[NicoV]

No you don't. Tesla only shows the average rate on the web site, you have to look in the car at each individual site to see what the rate is at that site. (It isn't even consistent across an entire state anymore like it used to be.)

Or look in this link: Supercharging

 

[Thekiwi]

Two powerwalls with panel upgrade: $20,000.

vs

Costco gas generator $400 to $700.

Solar panels and inverters the same 10kW for $25k.

I know its not the same convenience, but the cost difference is still immense, even if you go more luxurous with a $4k generac generator system.

Personally I don't want to invest into anything fossil fuel powered going forward despite initial price, and so do not have a generator nor the powerwalls at this point.

Only reason why I didnt do the powerwall upgrade to my 10kW system last year was because the stock price was lagging by a few years, if the recent catchup would have happened 2018/2019 as I had anticipated I would have had more cash to route to tesla for their awesome products.

The generator requires you to pay constantly for fuel, forever, to generate electricity - while the Tesla system requires zero extra cost to generate electricity (and usually lets you sell excess generation to the gird).

Also, how many people require 2 powerwalls? Is that a common need?

 

[Curt Renz]

Ark has so much conviction , but somehow they sell.
Their investing parameters don’t make sense.
Buffett very rarely sells, and especially not when successful.

Lol, you picked up a lot of 'disagrees' on that one, but I liked your comment.

Commenter/Vlogger @DaveT (hi Dave, pls correct me if this isn't your TMC handle) recently put out a video analyzing ARK Invest's $6,000 price target without ONCE mentioning that that tgt is their Bull case, and they also have a Bear case of $700 in 5 yrs.

Dave, it's easy to change some assumptions and get a different price target. The point is they've open sourced their analysis for FREE, and who does that? You should thank them for making your video (and Youtube 'views') possible. BTW, why didn't you show your modifications to their spread sheet? But I digress...

Here's the real problem with that review: DaveT completely missed out on the real problem with the ARK Invest approach to their ETF holdings: They keep selling their real Winner (thereby missing out on real gains), while sinking dead money into their dogs. Another approach would be to SELL THE DOG. GET NEW DOGS! if they want to diversify.

Another issue with the ARK Invest model is it doesn't include TE which management continually guides as having more upside than Auto over the relevant 5 yr forecast time frame. So... crickets? That's a missed opportunity to add value right there.

@Drax7, I agree with your statement: "Their investing parameters don’t make sense." ARK will pay the rent, but will never get rich this way.

Cheers!

Those who are perplexed by the constraints on an actively managed ETF, may want to place a related question in the chat box during the ARK quarterly report webinar. It will commence 15 minutes after today's market close.

https://register.gotowebinar.com/register/9009747195251486466

 

[Skryll]

Those things are not comparable at all. A $500 generator has to be manually started, run outside (so it doesn't kill you), allowed to annoy your neighbors, needs oil and fuel, feed an extension cord through an open door/window, force you to decide which appliance you want to run (possibly making you move your fridge). I have one of these for my reef aquarium as a backup. It was $500 and puts out 1600 watts so you can run your fridge and a couple of smaller things.

Meanwhile a power wall is instant on, zero noise, zero smell, zero maintenance, and allows you to arbitrage peak vs non-peak electricity pricing 365 days a year unlike the generator that sits in your garage. The real comparison is a whole house generator to a solar/powerwall system. A whole house generator of equivalent size to 2 powerwalls runs in the 6k range (plus install), and is worthless for 99.9% of the tie you own it. I can't wait until I have a cybertruck that I can use instead. As soon as I'm ready to replace my roof I'll likely be doing a small solar/battery system.

Yes, a solar/battery system is far more expensive but also provides far more utility and has the capability of paying for itself.

My response was to put some perspective towards the

I just discovered that solar adoption is set to explode naturally because the cost (with battery storage) is now cheaper than generators having ongoing maintenance. Solar - no moving parts

It was on some YouTube documentary I think.

 

[CalX]

Jonas new range is $115 to $650. That's how he got his new $360 target price for TSLA.

Tesla Plunges After Morgan Stanley Cuts To Sell, California Registrations Plummet 47%

This makes absolutely no sense. His price target is 25% below the mean of his options predicted range. I mean is anybody taking this guy seriously? Based on his range his target should be close to 500 and based on that he should at least be equal weight. Why include this graph at all? The only explanation would be manipulation.

 

[Tslynk67]

OT: Your idea of company taxation of share gains is totally different than what my accountant told me (here’s link that says the same as what my accountant says:Beleggen in aandelen met de vennootschap: hou rekening met de strengere regels! - Lemon Consult). I sold my TSLA shares 2 years ago because of the new regime, in which losses are not deductible, and gains are taxable at the regular tax rate. I switched to deep-in-the-money LEAPs, since options losses are at least deductible (unlike share losses), the gains are still taxable at the regular tax rate.

I think my accountant was just simplifying it for me.

Note how in the 2019 regime, if the investment is >€2.5m then will be tax exempt = more money for the rich...

 

[MP3Mike]

Or look in this link: Supercharging

Huh? That link doesn't provide individual site prices, just an average per country per type of fee... In fact it tells you to look in your car for details:

Average pricing information is provided below and specific pricing for each Supercharger location is shown in the navigation application on the vehicle touchscreen.

 

[Fredneck]

I think you may be missing some info, as to why buybacks add value to share price (all else being equal). Having covered Apple for over a decade, It is obvious it had a huge impact on share price, even without necessarily moving the market cap.

Buying back stock will reduce the market cap. It's the stock price that won't change. It's an even exchange of stock for dollars. The only movement to the stock price is from the fact that the shares bought back will be the lowest priced shares on the market. But that won't change the price of the stock substantially unless done suddenly.

If a buyback does change the price it shows the market was not priced properly.

The most obvious is that each share bought back means that shares portion of company earnings is redistributed to every other share, when done at scale this raises the EPS significantly. For instance Apple has removed more than a third of its share count, which means earnings per share has increased by 50% over where it would have otherwise been if the share count had remained static.

(However I don’t think Tesla will be doing buybacks any time soon as every dollar will be valuable for expansion in coming years. At most I think at some point they may use buybacks to prevent dilution from employee stock grants.)

That's the point... cash is not an easy to replace asset. More important though is profit. If the company doesn't maintain profit the cash will ebb away.

 

[StealthP3D]

I honestly think that makes him worse than the shorts. Self proclaims as a bull and has been responsible for Many drops in SP. I don't think he has a bull/bear thesis, he's just a manipulator nothing more.

Major brokerage house "analyst" is a synonym for "manipulator".

Jonas is Very good at putting out poor reports at very precise times for maximum effect.

Well, they don't get paid so much to be poor at manipulating! As an investor, you are better off pretending they don't exist, unless you can figure out how to use them as a contrarian indicator.

 

[Tslynk67]

So Adam Jonas' says his price target of $360 is based on the auto business worth $332 and the autonomy business worth $28.

He values:

Energy business: $0
Solar business: $0
Tesla brand: $0
In-vehicle entertainment and services: $0
Licensing battery technology: $0
Licensing autonomous technology: $0
Tesla Insurance: $0
New future businesses: $0

Adam Jonas' value: $0

 

[NicoV]

I think my accountant was just simplifying it for me.

Note how in the 2019 regime, if the investment is >€2.5m then will be tax exempt = more money for the rich...

Well, when your TSLA reaches 2.5M, you sell and buy again, and then you’re tax exempt .

 

[Mike Smith]

Supercharger network
Home storage
GRID SCALE STORAGE, WHICH EVERYONE ALWAYS FORGETS


(Sorry, it amazes me how bulls consistently forget this incredibly massive growth market. The world is going to spend 50 trillion dollars over the next 15 years on new generation/grid infrastructure. Tesla is inserting itself solidly into the middle of this.)

I'm sure he's not so stupid that he actually thinks all these things have zero value, but he knew how much extra work it would be to figure out values for them. It was probably sunny outside and he wanted to go play with his friends. It's really the only logical explanation.

 

[Todd Burch]

Interesting price action today--especially starting in the last few minutes. Much stronger than I was expecting. Maybe longs are a little stronger than I was giving them credit for.

 

[LoveTSLA]

I bet $1 against myself that we might close green today? Or we go back to 520 tomorrow. If so, Hope Janus Would not loose his creditability. Who else will listen to him?

 

[Nocturnal]

My response was to put some perspective towards the

Fair. I just often have arguments with people on this exact topic and they seem to discount the benefits of solar/battery and ignore the negatives of ICE generators. Cheers.

I bet $1 against myself that we might close green today? Or we go back to 520 tomorrow. If so, Hope Janus Would not loose his creditability. Who else will listen to him?

If anyone still finds him credible after this past year then I don't think that would change anything. ​