Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[JRP3]

If strategically placing advertising is what it takes to make the FUD go away, unfortunately that is what Tesla will have to do It is probably cheap in magazines, newspapers. Instead of cars, they can advertise the brand or some do some public interest ads (like about climate change etc). Probably wine & dine reporters. They have to play the game ...

Nah, just keep delivering awesome products, word of mouth and social media will overwhelm the fud.

 

[avoigt]

New BEV/PHEV Registrations globally:

#1 Car Company with most registrations of 233,760 is Tesla
#1 Model with most registrations is with 146,310 Tesla Model 3
#2 Car Company with cumulated registrations of 500,390* BEVs is Tesla

*BYD with just +16,840 on #1 end of '18

http://www.sonnenseite.com/de/mobilitaet/zahl-der-elektroautos-steigt-weltweit-von-34-auf-56-millionen.html …

 

[EVNow]

Nah, just keep delivering awesome products, word of mouth and social media will overwhelm the fud.

No - not unless your time horizon is infinite.

BTW, we haven't yet seen it. But I don't see what stops all these shorts from using bots on twitter to spread FUD. All they need to do is create enough noise and doubt. Look at what they have done to Climate Change.

 

[EVNow]

In Feb SP ended at 312.xx twice already. Looks like today too we'll be close to that

 

[Smokey4141]

My god, you're right. He recommended another company's stock four years ago and it tanked! I'm closing all of my positions immediately -- thank you!!!!

Well, to be fair, he was more than just "recommending" the stock... He was the analyst on it, presumably actually analyzing it, and issued a "Buy" on the stock mere months before they went Chapter 11... Never saw it coming, apparently.... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

You can mock me, or that fact, if you want.... Suit yourself... But it's still a fact....

 

[GBleck]

Right, because there is always a good line of sight to where an emergency vehicle is. Here in the real world there are large vehicles, buildings, etc. Similarly, it can "see" a car (at least, as long as it is moving), but it can't see that it is honking its horn.

edited to add:

More particularly, in reality, hearing a siren often doesn't tell you where it is. But it is a caution to slow down and be observant. Sure, emergency vehicles will virtually always cautiously negotiate intersections and so an FSD car may get by with only visual perception. And it would likely slow down if other traffic did, but what about if there isn't traffic in front of it to slow it down as it hits the intersection and green light just as the emergency vehicle enters from the side?

Tesla's all have mic pickups so theoretically they could be programmed to listen for sirens. The mic's may be inside the car but so are human drivers. The question is can the mic dump directly to the FSD computer or would it have to be handed off by the infotainment side.

 

[Anstandswauwau]

Excuse me, but since your location says "EU", I am wondering if you can state whether this pertains to the EU or to the US, or the rest of the world or some combination of those?

To be honest, I can only speculate:

I'd say EU & UK are a given, but I have no clue about PSA dealers outside of Europe. As far as I know, there are currently no PSA dealers in the US, so there's that. (PSA, however, plans to re-enter US market within the next seven years.)

According to my source, PSA allegedly expects a third of their current licensees being able to fulfill 2020+ contract requirements. So this could potentially affect ~6.2k dealers worldwide (back of the napkin math).

On the flipside, if PSA really pulls this off, they'd have a charging network worth of 15k-18k chargers at roughly 3.7k locations by mid-to-end 2020.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Nah, just keep delivering awesome products, word of mouth and social media will overwhelm the fud.

Agree. The lack of a grille makes Teslas highly noticeable. As the percentage on the road goes up, one would need to be living under a rock to fail to notice there is a transition taking place.

Which raises another barrier the ICE makers face. They try to make their EVs look like their ICEVs for brand continuity. EV buyers (should) want the world to notice that pollution is out of fashion. Buying an EV with a grille is akin to buying a smart phone with a qwerty keyboard.

 

[anthonyj]

Well, to be fair, he was more than just "recommending" the stock... He was the analyst on it, presumably actually analyzing it, and issued a "Buy" on the stock mere months before they went Chapter 11... Never saw it coming, apparently.... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

You can mock me, or that fact, if you want.... Suit yourself... But it's still a fact....

To suggest that a buy rating is a signal that Tesla is going bankrupt is naive. Upgrades are used to provide liquidity from retail investors so that institutions can dump. Downgrades are used so that institutions can buy into fear at the cheap. Sad that it’s used as a pump and dump stock, but in 5 years, if Tesla is successful, the stock should be quite a bit higher.

 

[KarenRei]

Grand Aurora already in the Azores:

GRAND AURORA Current position (Vehicles Carrier, IMO 9279331) - VesselFinder

One presumes Glovis Cosmos will be moving out soon and freeing up its place in Zeebrugge before the Aurora gets there

 

[mongo]

Exactly.

That is going to be one FSD case to deal with, imagine all the human drivers doing as above and the FSD's staying exactly in an actual lane...

Well, that is when the car uses "follow the leader" and "don't hit the car heading toward you" Plus, the humans would follow the tracks of the FSD, if their internal nav were that good (and both lanes were plowed).

That'd take some pretty extreme camera resolution until the pothole is just a fraction of a second away from you. E.g.: if you're driving 35m/s and the lip of the pothole is 1cm, and the camera is 50cm above the road, then when you're one second away from it, the bottom of the pothole is 0,0004% further away from the camera than the top of the pothole. There will be virtually no parallax. Or are you talking about recognizing "pothole shapes"? IMHO you're going to get a ton of false positives with that.

Don't know about Iceland, but in Michigan, 1cm is standard conditions, not a pothole. Our potholes go though at least the recoat layer of asphalt and the ones to watch out for are 3+ cm deep. Neither am I talking about potholes on 80 MPH freeways (35mps), but the tire killers on the secondary roads that will dent both sides of your rim. Shapes are not reliable either, (the patch is same shape as the hole). Nor am I talking parallax, as you approach the pothole, you see more of the hole past the near lip, (you may also discern the far edge strata). Whereas road surface looks the same (adjusting for aspect ratio) no matter the distance.

If your radar is registering a 1cm lip, you will not make it far in Michigan...

 

[SPadival]

Rough google translate of the Manager article sections where the words 'e-tron' and 'Tesla' appear.

Posting again because I felt Fwed really did a shitty job of conveying the gist of the article

 

[AudubonB]

And we have a winner.

Mine was winninger.

 

[ggr]

In New Jersey, all one need do is spot the top of the smart car poking out above the top of the pot hole.

Or see the line of stopped cars at the side of the road, from all the damaged wheels/tires. This particular pothole (in San Diego, 6th Av onramp to 163 in the middle of a downpour) took out both of my right side tires and wheels in one go. All of these cars had at least one flat tire. The photo of the hole doesn't do it justice... it is about a foot deep, but filled with water.

 

[gora321]

Anecdotal data point:

Since I reserved my Model 3 I started telling people that I am getting an American car, a claim that is _every_ time met with disbelief (maybe because I am known for driving Audi for 10+ years).

When I then explain that I am buying a Tesla, I get a: "But that's different".
So I think Teslas will (continue) to sell just fine here.

You reminded me:
I was on InterSolar (fair) in Munich on year that Model S came to Europe. It was in June I believe. I have seen roadsters before on fair but Model S was first time live for me. I saw that they are giving testing drives so it was super opportunity.
I asked Tesla representative If he can arrange me a test drive. I was there for 3 days so It was feasible.
Guy said no problem! I can put you in October. What?! He said: this year!!!
I said that I'm from Slovenia (650km away) and there is no way that I can come in October. Can you do something?
He showed me the lists. This was f***** crazy.

So I decided not to have testing drive. I had several opportunities but I said no! The force in Tesla is pretty strong. I'm resisting somehow! I decided to have first drive with my own car. I want full first impression. I do not know If I would stand with my promise!

.

 

[JRP3]

No - not unless your time horizon is infinite.

BTW, we haven't yet seen it. But I don't see what stops all these shorts from using bots on twitter to spread FUD. All they need to do is create enough noise and doubt. Look at what they have done to Climate Change.

And yet growing numbers of people realize that climate change is a real concern. The FUD/bots become less effective in the face of reality.

 

[avoigt]

32 3s in Düsseldorf Germany, first deliveries Feb 19th

Dropbox - M3s in DUS - Simplify your life

VINs:

195866, 195880, 195890, 195906, 196599, 200085, 200296, 200829, 200854, 200857, 201052, 201054, 205984, 205987, 206004, 206041, 206081, 207243, 207311, 207313, 207435, 207467, 207475, 207496, 207535, 207600, 207652, 207760, 207777, 207853, 207923, 207981

The wrapped one is manufactured January 19th so it needs about 4 weeks to manufacture, ship over and deliver in EU

 

[aznt1217]

Investment advisers and mutual funds don't need to book profits. They are paid on a mark-to-market basis. (And performance is similarly calculated).

However, some of T Rowe's reduction could certainly be attributed to widespread redemptions out of actively-managed mutual funds in Q4 and funding year-end capital gains distributions. Both would have caused T Rowe to sell so that they could fund the cash flows and so that they maintain similar exposures to TSLA.

We likely won't have the full story until we see the underlying fund holdings over the coming months.

That is correct. They could just be rebalancing for asset allcoation purchases. But if they were smart they'd call out profits on key investments in their newsletter.

 

[KarenRei]

Don't know about Iceland, but in Michigan, 1cm is standard conditions, not a pothole. Our potholes go though at least the recoat layer of asphalt and the ones to watch out for are 3+ cm deep

So 0,000037% difference in distance. Again, no meaningful parallax.

Neither am I talking about potholes on 80 MPH freeways (35mps)

Slower speed = not much difference. Look at the percentage above. You just can't meaningful handle parallax differences at driving speeds.

Shapes are not reliable either, (the patch is same shape as the hole). Nor am I talking parallax, as you approach the pothole, you see more of the hole past the near lip, (you may also discern the far edge strata).

That's parallax - near objects not moving at the same relative rate as far objects. It's a slightly different geometry problem than the variant that I outlined (parallax between the top and bottom edges of the hole on the far side), but again, not a practical task for cameras at driving speeds.

More to the point, it's not how humans detect potholes when driving, either. Humans detect potholes by their visual appearance (light and shadow), not parallax. If you paint a detailed, perspective-adjusted pothole 30 meters ahead of someone on the road, they'll react to it as they would an actual pothole.

If your radar is registering a 1cm lip, you will not make it far in Michigan...

Radar would measure every lip (every pothole), and its depth, so you could route between the worst ones.

 

[Smokey4141]

To suggest that a buy rating is a signal that Tesla is going bankrupt is naive. Upgrades are used to provide liquidity from retail investors so that institutions can dump. Downgrades are used so that institutions can buy into fear at the cheap. Sad that it’s used as a pump and dump stock, but in 5 years, if Tesla is successful, the stock should be quite a bit higher.

That is ~not~ what I said, and you know that...

I just noticed that several on this board seemed to be excited about this particular analyst's opinion on the stock, and I am just trying to point out that this particular guy may not be the one you want to hitch your wagon to...

He was also a big fan of Solar City's prospects back in the day too... Just sayin....

Edit: I should add, other than your first sentence, I ~do~ agree with your upgrade/downgrade statements...
Sadly, it's much, much too common... Money/Order flow buys opinions, no doubt about it...