Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[M3Rider]

Similar question raised a man with a horse when he saw a car. How to drive a car where are no roads? He answered to himself: you buy a horse!

Please have a little faith in technology

A little won't do. It has to be 99.999...% correct.
FSD can't take any risks, so it has to be sure.

I'm not entirely disregarding the possibility that a solution can be found. I just kept thinking that often times we drive based on memory of what we saw when the snow was not there... For example, a stop sign that is entirely covered by a sticky snow. If you drive there often, you know it's there. Location of turn lanes, etc.
Just took my daughter for her 2nd ever drive to a parking lot after the fresh snow. To do some doughnuts and have some fun. So, there are curbs in certain places around the lot and in the middle, which I can recognize by the slightly raised snow levels or trees/poles sticking out. Couple of times she drove right over those curbs, b/c she's a new driver and not used to paying attention to those things and staying away. I just saw how this can be a challenge to an FSD - if it is not sure that it's going to leave the road and end up in the ditch, then that risk should not be taken.

The other concern is related to cameras being obstructed as @bdy0627 mentioned.

I noticed that during a snowfall I start getting sounds related to an obstruction ahead and it is actually showing it on the screen ahead of the car when nothing is there, so that kind of confusion is not helpful for achieving 99.999%. Maybe this can be improved. But an ice buildup would certainly put cameras out of commission. Need to add heaters there.

 

[AlexS]

Anecdotal data point:

Since I reserved my Model 3 I started telling people that I am getting an American car, a claim that is _every_ time met with disbelief (maybe because I am known for driving Audi for 10+ years).

When I then explain that I am buying a Tesla, I get a: "But that's different".
So I think Teslas will (continue) to sell just fine here.

Asking just for information, are you pure German or you have some other roots from not so distant past? Because for me it seems that many Germans can be too proud to buy US car. Or how is your feeling about that?

 

[lklundin]

Can't give too many details or the source on this one, but I thought I'd share this (exclusive?) info anyway:

PSA recently informed Peugeot-, Citroën- and Opel-dealerships to install a certain number of charging stations – proportional to their showroom size – at their venue until mid-2020, in order to qualify for contract renewal. Small-to-medium-sized dealers clock in around 6-8 chargers, with each station costing around €60.000.

Dealers are going BANANAS.

Excuse me, but since your location says "EU", I am wondering if you can state whether this pertains to the EU or to the US, or the rest of the world or some combination of those?

 

[Smokey4141]

Correction, he should appear during the 2 pm EST hour. Apparently "Power Lunch" refers to to the MST Noon hour.

~This~ dude??

 

[ggr]

Totally agree with what you are saying, but just to add a little first hand experience.

I owned a Volt for 5 years before getting my Model 3. My son now drives it. I averaged almost 80% of my driving over the life of the car on pure electricity. Not bad and served its purpose as a stand in against gas burners until the Model 3 came along and I could go all electric.

Dan

Mod: We are absolutely not going to have this discussion in this thread. Take it to Pure BEV Dogma . Further posts here will be deleted out of hand. --ggr

 

[Curt Renz]

Which is why the US has dealer franchise laws in place to protect them from their own OEM.
However, those laws should not extend to protecting franchises from other OEMs...

Good:


Bad current version:


pre-2014 version:

No dealers, no problem with direct sales...

mcl-445-1574

Well said. Meanwhile, you're in Michigan where nearly 2.5 years ago Tesla filed a federal lawsuit against Michigan officials who were blocking Tesla sales and service in the state. How is that lawsuit proceeding?

 

[KarenRei]

~This~ dude??
View attachment 376356

Those numbers should start to improve now that he's switched sides on Tesla

 

[EVNow]

Tesla is not one of CNBC's advertisers, so they find it easy to repeat all the FUD that is sent to them. Indeed, the analyst described Tesla's potential with a clearer head.

Also, I think Tesla doesn't have a good corporate PR team that can respond quickly to point out FUD. Its much better for the PR team to do it rather than Musk tweeting angrily at journalists. All the FUD costs Tesla real money - so its worth getting a good team together, form a communication plan and execute on it. Probably like how political parties/campaigns respond.

ps : They should also get ahead of the news and communicate clearly about price changes etc. Basically anything that can be used to spin FUD. The first time someone sees news about Tesla, it should be coming from Tesla PR - not Electrek or Rueters etc.

 

[anthonyj]

FSD won’t work in New Jersey because of massive potholes. Unless it’s able to detect potholes at 65mph (I doubt it).

 

[larmor]

FSD won’t work in New Jersey because of massive potholes. Unless it’s able to detect potholes at 65mph (I doubt it).

I bet there will be a NJ mode which specifically accounts for absence of u turns and left turns and multiple poorly positioned concrete barriers...

 

[lklundin]

Asking just for information, are you pure German or you have some other roots from not so distant past? Because for me it seems that many Germans can be too proud to buy US car. Or how is your feeling about that?

Fair enough, I am 1/8 German - and am like many others here a relatively recent immigrant.

The answer is probably complicated.

Sure, there is probably some correlation between the buyer's nationality and their chosen car brand also in Germany - and maybe more here than elsewhere.

Still, the country has _many_ immigrants - also from other car producing countries.
Also, the diesel scandal is a quite big deal here, people are typically concerned about the depreciation of their investment in an ICE. Others have already suffered such a depreciation loss, and are not looking forward to buying a German car.

Finally, a lot of people look very close at the cost of ownership, which can work in Tesla's favour - except that the German language sources for such information may not be completely accurate (yet?).

When I am in someone's waiting room I always browse the car magazines. These still treat BEV's as something exotic and typically not something for the average buyer. I guess that is fair, given the actual options for buying a new, competitive BEV today.

A quick google didn't turn up anything, but there must be some research in this.

PS. I should add that the three cars I have bought in my life were all from Audi, A4/6/8. But the times have changed at least for someone like me who follows the technology:

"Vorsprung durch Technik" no longer belongs to a German company.

 

[Singuy]

Anecdotal data point:

Since I reserved my Model 3 I started telling people that I am getting an American car, a claim that is _every_ time met with disbelief (maybe because I am known for driving Audi for 10+ years).

When I then explain that I am buying a Tesla, I get a: "But that's different".
So I think Teslas will (continue) to sell just fine here.

That's because Teslas are probably the most "anti-American" American made car.

1. Not big , loud, and ugly
2. Great handling
3. Doesn't have parts that break right after the warranty is out due to making components out of plastic (historically speaking).
4. Does not have the full support of the media
5. Comes from silicon valley
6. Welcomes competition and released their patents
7. Humble attitude. CEO admits screw ups, drop prices to make sure everyone can afford his car, working his ass off to accelerate the advent of sustainable energy while getting relentlessly attacked by every critic known to man.
8. Oh yeah, the CEO is also the CEO of the most inspirational space company in modern era.

Buying Tesla is almost telling the U.S to go F themselves for being political about our environment where capitalism is more important than our future....Withdrawing from the Paris accord and voting in a Pressident that makes fun of climate change science is just icing on that cake....I know I bought one with that in mind.

 

[KarenRei]

FSD won’t work in New Jersey because of massive potholes. Unless it’s able to detect potholes at 65mph (I doubt it).

Actually, a good radar could do so. You need a wavelength on the scale of some large fraction of the potholes' size. A weak return means "smooth" and a strong return means rough, aka "you have a pothole". You also need sufficient angular resolution. An easy way to do this would be with dual-antenna interferometry (one antenna on the left side of the car, one on the right), to create a large virtual aperture without needing a physically large antenna.

If they could adjust the wavelength over a wide range they could probe everything from potholes to road surface composition to ice and snow coverage, well ahead of the vehicle. Aka, having much better data than a human. You still wouldn't match LIDAR's angular resolution, but the usefulness of the data you could collect would be vastly superior (and not particularly weather-degraded).

 

[mongo]

Well said. Meanwhile, you're in Michigan where 2.5 years ago Tesla filed a federal lawsuit against Michigan officials who were blocking Tesla sales and service in the state. How is that lawsuit proceeding?

Yah, back in 2014 when a (literally) 11th hour change drop the "its" from the law. Haven't heard much on the suit since the Michigan auto dealer association was forced to submit communications with the legislators.
'Anti-Tesla' law: Michigan auto dealers to turn over records, call dispute 'hyperbole'
I hope the new Governor, Attorney General, and Secretary of State drop the fight against Tesla in a similar way that they did in removing Michigan from the suit against the EPAs clean air rules...
Dana Nessel moves to drop Michigan from suits fighting EPA clean air rules

In general, it seems the states lose on interstate commerce grounds when it goes to federal court, so it seems like a waste of time and money (for non-dealers/OEMs). It is also a waste of potential revenue since Michigan never gets the sales tax for Teslas purchased in other states (unless that state's tax rate is less tan 6%, then Michigan gets the difference.) along with the employment a few service centers would bring.

 

[Curt Renz]

CNBC interviewers keep repeating FUD. They keep saying that Tesla "gutted their delivery team", neglecting to mention the focus on overseas deliveries, the typical January low, the move-forward due to the tax credit, etc. They also keep repeating the "40% range reduction in winter" thing, while using phrases like "kills your battery". The reporters were pretty terrible.

The analyst they were interviewing, however, did a pretty good job.

Tesla is not one of CNBC's advertisers, so they find it easy to repeat all the FUD that is sent to them. Indeed, the analyst described Tesla's potential with a clearer head.

Also, I think Tesla doesn't have a good corporate PR team that can respond quickly to point out FUD. Its much better for the PR team to do it rather than Musk tweeting angrily at journalists. All the FUD costs Tesla real money - so its worth getting a good team together, form a communication plan and execute on it. Probably like how political parties/campaigns respond.

Good point, EVNow. Nevertheless without spreading advertising dollars, the Tesla PR team is in a weak position for effectively influencing the media.

 

[humbaba]

Actually, a good radar could do so. You need a wavelength on the scale of some large fraction of the potholes' size. A weak return means "smooth" and a strong return means rough, aka "you have a pothole". You also need sufficient angular resolution. An easy way to do this would be with dual-antenna interferometry (one antenna on the left side of the car, one on the right), to create a large virtual aperture without needing a physically large antenna.

If they could adjust the wavelength they could probe everything from potholes to road surface composition to ice and snow coverage, well ahead of the vehicle. Aka, having much better data than a human.

Sure. Unfortunately such hardware is not in a Tesla and we are being told that current HW [sensors] will be sufficient for FSD...

 

[mongo]

Actually, a good radar could do so. You need a wavelength on the scale of some large fraction of the potholes' size. A weak return means "smooth" and a strong return means rough, aka "you have a pothole". You also need sufficient angular resolution. An easy way to do this would be with dual-antenna interferometry (one antenna on the left side of the car, one on the right), to create a large virtual aperture without needing a physically large antenna.

If they could adjust the wavelength they could probe everything from potholes to road surface composition to ice and snow coverage, well ahead of the vehicle. Aka, having much better data than a human. You still wouldn't match LIDAR's angular resolution, but the usefulness of the data-gathering would be vastly superior.

Or a section of NN trained to detect the aspect change of an approaching pothole edge vs the normal planar surface. Vision might work better against water filled potholes also...

 

[KarenRei]

Sure. Unfortunately such hardware is not in a Tesla and we are being told that current HW [sensors] will be sufficient for FSD...

I have an issue with the notion that there is a single "FSD". Self-driving can always get better. Are we going to say that just because it's possible to make a system better in a future generation of the vehicle, then the previous generation can't be called self-driving? If that's the case, then nothing will ever be able to be called self-driving.

Hardware will keep getting better. We need to accept this, not insist on locking us into one particular generation and cursing Tesla if they ever introduce something even better. The software will always do as well as it can on any particular hardware set.

 

[Curt Renz]

CNBC - 40 minutes ago:

 

[lascavarian]

They also keep repeating the "40% range reduction in winter" thing, while using phrases like "kills your battery".

Granted there is an opportunity to make improvements on this but I will note that when I drove my old plug-in hybrid across parts of Canada I found that at northern locations there were often MANY electrical outlets at Motels. It is because in sever cold ICE vehicles require an electrical block heater. They need this to even start the car in the morning - not just shortened range but no range for ICE vehicles. So warming an EV battery to improve cold weather performance has easy ways to improve over time.