Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Skryll]

Well, this marks 300 dollars since I sold all 59 of my Jan21s calls and started a short straddle. I don't even know what to say or do or think at this point. Not only did I leave over 1 million dollars on the table because I ended up being weak long after all, but I actually lost a ton of money trying to short straddle it. Worst part of this is that I love this company and I want to hop back in and go long again, but I don't know if the parabolic movement will hold.

FWIW, I lost large part of my investments into TSLA by being a stubborn long with too many LEAPS between 2017 and 2019, and paying for margin interest for shares I bought on dips but did not want to let go off on the ups. Wasted time and energy playing the ups and downs winning some loosing some. overall a lot of churn.

Eventually shifted my strategy to slowly accumulate with the intent to not sell for years instead of trying to time the market. Was driving Model X since 2016 and Model 3 since 2018 to validate product potential. PG&E fire sale and development in europe and china towards countering climate change show we are in the right spot at the right time.

Bought more back when it was $180 and felt the doubt a lot but had my convictions. Only this month started reducing my margin exposure to healthy levels, good now.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Well, this marks 300 dollars since I sold all 59 of my Jan21s calls and started a short straddle. I don't even know what to say or do or think at this point. Not only did I leave over 1 million dollars on the table because I ended up being weak long after all, but I actually lost a ton of money trying to short straddle it. Worst part of this is that I love this company and I want to hop back in and go long again, but I don't know if the parabolic movement will hold.

I sold my shares at ~$235 to buy a house. Said house is getting awfully expensive at this point...

 

[UnknownSoldier]

I'm not at all happy to see it rising before earnings like this. That usually means a selloff after. I'm sitting here wondering if I should just ditch these options now and just hang onto shares. 12 minutes to decide.

Let the record show that I didn't sell any of my options before earnings. Sometimes it's best to be greedy, I guess. Hurr.

 

[Curt Renz]

i turned on cnbc, did i miss them talking about it already?

Tesla post-earnings report comments by three analysts on CNBC:

CNBC Fast Money panelists:

 

[Fact Checking]

Wow, let me repeat that, Tesla just guided for production capacity of 740,000 cars/year in 2020 - an about +75% increase over their 2019 capacity.

View attachment 505707

Wow #2, did you guys notice the following detail in the Model Y production line photos in the Q4 update letter:

That looks like a cast underbody to me ...

Patented high pressure metal casting/molding machine which lowers CoGs significantly already in action??

 

[TradingInvest]

Well, this marks 300 dollars since I sold all 59 of my Jan21s calls and started a short straddle. I don't even know what to say or do or think at this point. Not only did I leave over 1 million dollars on the table because I ended up being weak long after all, but I actually lost a ton of money trying to short straddle it. Worst part of this is that I love this company and I want to hop back in and go long again, but I don't know if the parabolic movement will hold.

After reading so many valuable posts you went net negative! You have to form a solid plan going forward, otherwise stay with index. If you can't tell if your plan is solid, you can ask people on this form. There are a lot of very intelligent people here, they didn't get onto Tesla train by chance.

 

[Cherry Wine]

If some are inclined (and it's okay with mods), please feel free to give those of us who can't tune into the call some updates in this thread.

 

[DrMazeppa]

Toss a coin to your witcher...

Or a chair, if you want.

 

[LJS22]

Wow #2, did you guys notice the following detail in the Model Y photos:

View attachment 505748
That looks like a cast underbody to me ...

High pressure metal casting/molding machine already in action??

Looks like model Y is made from the cut down trees of Berlin

 

[SpaceCash]

Let the record show that I didn't sell any of my options before earnings. Sometimes it's best to be greedy, I guess. Hurr.

Same dude

 

[goinfraftw]

"tsla filter:verified" twitter got super quiet ~40 minutes ago.

 

[madodel]

I guess all the fancy music is to help educate all the newly minted $TSLA millionaires.

 

[Vad42]

Can we hit tree nutty by lunch time? I can’t wait all day.

I CANNOT believe I said the above exactly 3 weeks ago. And now fur-nutty is close.

And exactly another 3 weeks later we skipping 500s, and could sis-nutty really be in the cards soon?

I think this is what Elon calls an exponential.

 

[Causalien]

Well, this marks 300 dollars since I sold all 59 of my Jan21s calls and started a short straddle. I don't even know what to say or do or think at this point. Not only did I leave over 1 million dollars on the table because I ended up being weak long after all, but I actually lost a ton of money trying to short straddle it. Worst part of this is that I love this company and I want to hop back in and go long again, but I don't know if the parabolic movement will hold.

You were the chosen one. You were supposed to bring joys of faggy d call options to us all!!!!

 

[MartinAustin]

Market cap currently running at $116.8 billion

 

[JustSaying]

Maybe possible range increases coming for model 3 as well??? Different batteries???

Nor did NUMMI make the coolest cars on the planet - they mostly made ~$16k-22k Toyota Corollas:

View attachment 505715

An apples to ... peanuts comparison.

I thought the NUMMI plant produced cars were call ToyLets?

 

[Cherry Wine]

Hmm … looks like $125M. (407-143-140)

I see (-408)+143+105 in the Q4'19 update letter for $151M required.

 

[SteveG3]

to the poster who asked a few weeks/($200+) ago,

this is now feeling like 2013

Congrats to Tesla, and all the TMC longs!!!

 

[abasile]

Not looking good for this formerly wealthy TSLAQ member I think.

If this AH price action holds he might be unable to sell his $300 puts even for the $0.01 minimum ontract price in the morning...

Betting on the failure of one of the most innovative enterprises on the planet - SMH.

I'm thankful for the support of individuals like him, by purchasing the high-priced Puts that I sell!

 

[Fact Checking]

Ok, just read through the update letter, very solid report!

• Over $1b in free cash flow, all time record, hit the ball out of the park - not even hyperbulls expected that. Amazon growth model, here we come!
• Big revenue beat with $7.3b - all time record.
• 500k+ deliveries guidance for 2020 is +40% YoY growth - the Tesla growth story continues.
• Model Y sharing assembly capacity with the Model 3 was speculated about, but still caught everyone by surprise. Announcement of Model Y production, photos of the new BIW line with Model Ys already in production and announcement of first deliveries by end of March are obviously bombshell news.
• GAAP profits are lower than expected, but mostly only due to non-cash stock compensation expenses. Cash from operations and gross profits were all very nice.
• All time cash and cash equivalents record of $6.3b pushes out the date of bankwuptcy to ... never.
• A bit higher ZEV revenue - I presume from FCA. Should significantly increase in 2020.
• The "unsustainable" margins from Q3 were sustained in Q4.
• Edit: hat tip to @adesai, combined guided production capacity annual run rate is at 760,000/year - which is way beyond all expectations!

Congratulations Tesla!!

Another detail from the update letter:

"While we saw an increase in operating expenses in Q4 (driven mostly by $72M of non-cash SBC expense related to one more 2018 CEO award operational milestone becoming probable), higher gross profit resulted in a 72bp sequential improvement of GAAP operating margin to 4.9% in Q4."​

Put differently, Tesla and their PwC auditors now consider it probable that Tesla's market cap will stay above $100b for the next ~6 months, I.e. above around $554.