Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[winfield100]

Having trouble breathing at this ozone layer!

Damned spreadsheet keeps showing xxxxxx; have to double tap the right column to widen it.

Knew I needed more missile tape for this “in flight missile mechanic” gig Which stage are we in? Second or third?

Futures are looking at this early hour. I should learn to sleep more.

OT
@DragonWatch
Think of it more like Iain M Bank’s GCU (general contact unit) ship
“Sleeper Service” in his Culture novel “Excession”,
Which spent ~40 years building 112,000 warships and engines and could boost at 233,5000x speed of light
(Musk named a few drone ships after Culture ships.)
Boost phase just starting

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Bonds could(and should) fund a renewed and deeper dive into zero-down residential energy products.

 

[theschnell]

Not until the Roadster (possibly) will Tesla make anything that handles like the Taycan. If you want to drive windy roads for a while, Taycan wins.

Excuse me??? You know this now?

 

[Unpilot]

Why is it crashing....down over 12 from pre session high?!?/S

 

[sweter]

As I gape in awe at the ticker and $TSLA on Twitter, I encountered this article on TechCrunch: What is going on with Tesla? – TechCrunch

The article itself is about nothing, but the chart at the bottom caught my eye and helped me get on my feet:

 

[2Pearls]

dude, this is the tesla stock investment thread. GTFO

And I have been a VERY SUCCESSFUL TSLA Investor since early 2013. Are we in an echo chamber? I know in this day and age, many of us do not like to deal with facts. Too bad, because as an investor, we should know our competition...it actually makes us smarter.

 

[killianss]

+103 premarket.. here we come

 

[theschnell]

i can’t wait. I want Tesla to come out with the Plaid and I am waiting for the Roadster...but until then, the Taycan is IT. And, even with the plaid, I am not sure that fit and finish or the quality interior and materials will be as good. I hope I am wrong, but it looks bad being a hater. Go try the Taycan and then give me an honest review...or, do you still want to have blinders on. Again, isn’t this what we said when everyone talked down about Tesla? There is room for competition...we should welcome it.

I don’t have a problem with Taycan having better handling now.

Just seems like 6 - 10 months not a long time to wait for a much better buy overall in my opinion.

But it’s your money. Do as you please.

 

[Fact Checking]

I should visit more often but when I do there are 30-50 pages to read.

Pardon the question for everyone..no offense to others....but @ReflexFunds and @Fact Checking .....Where is the buying coming from? Bezo's ex wife....Google execs.....Imploding hedge funds.....Baile G?

EDIT: This is not just short covering as enough shares are trading each day to cover all shorts....

I outlined my hypothesis yesterday:

"Guys, TSLA float is 141.9 million shares, and today 46.3 million shares were traded, which is 32.6% of the float.

This is truly remarkable: I believe what is going on is that 3 forces are reducing the float:

• "Don't sell below $5,000" long term holders - they are effectively insiders who don't sell,
• S&P 500 indexing accumulators who'll need these shares in a few months and who won't sell them,
• Shorts covering - where short positions covered destroy a matching number of long shares.

32.6% of the float trading in a single day might be a signal of too few shares available in the float already ...

If true then the squeeze might become more VW-ish."​

I forgot to list a fourth, fifth and sixth factor:

• Options writers and market makers delta-hedging. There's an incredible amount of open interest on the call side, well over 50 million shares equivalent ...
• Some really bug funds with a short TSLA position or naked call options might be close to blowing out (is Jim Chanos's fund fine - did they never write naked call options?) - and Wall Street might be smelling the bl**d in the water. Why sell to them before it's clear who exactly those getting squeezed are? This would further reduce the float ...
• Retail investors who bought the dip last year between May and October are still a couple of months away to be able to lock in long term capital gains tax rates. Selling right now would mean giving up 37% of the investment position (!), so steep was the rise, and so high the gains which moved many retail investors into the highest U.S. tax bracket. This takes out from the float those investors who'd otherwise consider divesting a bit, to dip-buy at least 37% lower. But to sell now they'd have to be convinced that the dip will be significantly deeper than 40% ... which is a tall order right now.

If true then the "effective float" of TSLA might have become too small, and the buying comes from distressed shorts and S&P 500 exposed investment funds fighting over too few fish in the pond.

Also, both shorts covering and S&P 500 exposed funds buying their ~0.4% allocation will further decrease the float, which presses up the price as new buyers have to convince existing shareholders with higher and higher price targets to part with their shares...

So it's a vicious circle, a self-reinforcing cycle, and the narrowing of the float created the VW squeeze as well. (Although under very different circumstances.)

I have no idea whether my hypothesis is true, but the percentage of the official float traded, which must in reality be significantly smaller, is truly remarkable.

 

[Krugerrand]

I'm not sure what will happen with TSLA, but at around 780 Euro, my initial stocks will be at 30x and I plan to celebrate that with a bottle of french sparkling wine.

Imma gonna go down to the dumpster and pick out a new used box.

 

[Singuy]

so, you have no clue about cars and you got lucky with Tesla, I get it. Just like with Tesla, try test driving the Taycan before you speak...
0-60 is not the only parameter to a cars performance! And, they have already raced The Taycan with the Tesla P100D (Performance model) and the Taycan won.

You pick any objective video and the Taycan wins. I still love my Tesla's as well as my TSLA stock, but until, you drive the Taycan, you really should not be commenting. Isn’t this what everyone on the Tesla forum says about Tesla. Don’t short or buy another EV until you at least try a Tesla...then you will speak from experience and know better.

A 189k car comparing to a 90k car and won by whatever small metric with so many other things lacking (software, charging, overall range) is not really any objective win. If a Porsche boxer beats a Mazda Miata by a small tiny amount then Porsche will be laughed out of the industry.

Knowing that Tesla can just completely out the Taycan in the grave with roadster 2.0 spec and being in the same price class should tell you how all these tests are useless.

 

[theschnell]

I should visit more often but when I do there are 30-50 pages to read.

Pardon the question for everyone..no offense to others....but @ReflexFunds and @Fact Checking .....Where is the buying coming from? Bezo's ex wife....Google execs.....Imploding hedge funds.....Baile G?

EDIT: This is not just short covering as enough shares are trading each day to cover all shorts....

I’m convinced the volume is new shorts selling to old shorts covering.

All of us holding are on the sidelines watching the battle.

 

[Todd Burch]

I am a long (planning on holding for several more years as price appreciates toward that $15k number).

I've set a trailing stop loss of $200 just as protection against a force majeure event--as many know I've been here and/or checking the price nearly daily for a decade now. Any thoughts on whether that trailing stop loss amount of $200 is now too small given volatility, and the fact that $200 is only 22% of share price? I figure I can adjust it daily as needed.

 

[DrJohnM]

TSLA price pre market being reported in the Financial Times Subscribe to read | Financial Times

 

[Gerasimental]

And I have been a VERY SUCCESSFUL TSLA Investor since early 2013. Are we in an echo chamber? I know in this day and age, many of us do not like to deal with facts. Too bad, because as an investor, we should know our competition...it actually makes us smarter.

i think the issue is more that a discussion about the relative handling and acceleration capabilities of the Taycan and not-yet-existent Plaid Model S or New Roadster are at best very tangientially related to stock price or investor concerns. That discussion more properly belongs in other places.
Fyi I agree with you that the Taycan is a very attractive vehicle, in some ways more so than anything Tesla has to offer, and that 0-60 times totally miss the point of what sports cars are about. But the discussion doesn't belong here.

Back on topic: Looks like we've settled at 885-ish for the last hour. Expectations on opening?

 

[MartinAustin]

And I have been a VERY SUCCESSFUL TSLA Investor since early 2013. Are we in an echo chamber? I know in this day and age, many of us do not like to deal with facts. Too bad, because as an investor, we should know our competition...it actually makes us smarter.

You misunderstand. There are hundreds of investors coming to this thread RIGHT NOW. They are here to read and post stuff about the short burn that's going on right now. They are scrolling past your posts, which have nothing to do with stock and no bearing on any stocks. It's as if your posts are a paid ad by Porsche. "we interrupt the stream of legit stock discussion to bring you a completely unrelated post about some product." The Admin should be deleting your posts (and all our responses to you). I hope you are keeping a copy of them so you can post them where they're supposed to go

---

Mod: No deleting, but a request: take the Taycan vs. Model S discussion somewhere else. It's almost ticker time!

RSF

 

[DrJohnM]

UK has move the deadline for stopping the sale of petrol/diesel cars from 2040 to 2035 and now includes hybrids in the ban

 

[The Blue Owl]

Jim Cramer on CNBC: "TSLA should exceed F + GM combined. Nobody is selling. Battery Day is coming."

Jim Cramer: Tesla is a tech company and must be valued as one

 

[Kuhz]

ANOTHER 20% bump incoming?

 

[ReflexFunds]

I should visit more often but when I do there are 30-50 pages to read.

Pardon the question for everyone..no offense to others....but @ReflexFunds and @Fact Checking .....Where is the buying coming from? Bezo's ex wife....Google execs.....Imploding hedge funds.....Baile G?

EDIT: This is not just short covering as enough shares are trading each day to cover all shorts....

Its is hard to know for sure. I think it is a combination of three things:
1) Very few investors are selling. The past few years of volatility and FUD led to a concentration of shares in the hands of investors who think the company is already worth far over $1,000.
2) Price discovery mode as new investors jump on board for fear of missing out (plus rush to hedge their fossil fuel assets) now that the FUD narrative has been drowned out and people are starting to believe in the Clean Energy transition.
3) Feedback loops from short covering (to maintain flat $ exposure) and delta hedging of call options (net delta exposure keeps increasing, in part due to higher deltas from higher price but also in part because short term traders are riding the momentum with leveraged calls and the corresponding delta hedging shares purchases drive up the price).

The most surprising thing is the lack of filings on new investors crossing 5% ownership thresholds.

I'll also note that the daily traded volume is very deceiving. Nowhere near to this many long term holders are selling out each day. The vast majority of volume is market making and short term delta hedging adjustments with the same shares changing hands over and over again.