Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[lascavarian]

On a trading note. Yesterday I picked up 2 Jan 18 342.50 calls (2.10). I plan to sell one to cover the costs and then let the other ride a bit.

Nicely, I did sell 1 of the 2 Jan 18 342.5 calls bought ($2.10) yesterday, today at twice the price ($4.20) so the cost of remaining call is covered as we ride toward the 18th. I have another Jan 18 380 call that I am likely to take a bath on so this helps ease the pain.

 

[Krugerrand]

I don't believe in afterlife so if they can live with their actions in this life they've gotten away with it.

Doesn’t matter if we believe in afterlife or not, it exists or doesn’t exist regardless of our personal beliefs. But even if life is a big computer simulation, I don’t know one where you don’t get additional lives.

You’re under the assumption that they should be punished by losing the money they’ve wrongly acquired. Like I said, punishment, rectification et al comes in many forms. They might leave this earth with a pocket full of ill gotten gains, but they’ll have paid for it in some other way.

Adding: ‘living with their actions’ can itself be a form of punishment and isn’t an indication they’ve gotten away with it.

 

[NicoV]

OffT: Belgium to propose law banning ICE autonomous vehicles and new car tax based on kilometres driven/time of day, with refunds fir cycling and walking.

Quite progressive, I must say: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/belgium-first-country-ban-self-driving-cars-engines-pieter-morlion/

Did you read the last paragraph: “Unfortunately, the above article is fake news. Belgium does not even have a government at the moment. Last year Belgians have lost all together 10 million of hours in traffic jams, 620 people were killed in road accidents and 11.000 have prematurely died of the polluted air we breathe. ”

Unfortunately this article has been doing the rounds on FB, no need to waste time reading it.

 

[mrdoubleb]

My theory is that MR will be phased out once SR hits. Will never go to EU or China. It was always an extra std to plug the gap. SR will surprise with great specs.

I don't know. Would be too bad. As far as I recall, there is a 9k gap between non-PuP SR and LR RWD. That's a big jump up the ladder. MR fits very nicely in there and could pull in buyers who are a bit worried about winter range of SR, but just can't afford LR.

 

[PhaseWhite]

TSLA credit line 1,1B fully re-paid and re-opened.

http://stocknewsflow.com/1318605_000156459019000190_0001564590-19-000190

Can someone more knowledgeable explain the importance of this? It sounds like they just reloaded their credit line?

 

[AlexS]

Can someone more knowledgeable explain the importance of this? It sounds like they just reloaded their credit line?

Just that they paid of what was used and credit agreement is extended on the same terms, so basically nothing special.

 

[AlexS]

azaleia banks is going after musk again

Azealia Banks on Instagram: “This was written by Elon Musk’s lawyer Dean Kristy. Not enough that they took my phone and tried tampering with evidence, - they are STILL…”

 

[PhaseWhite]

azaleia banks is going after musk again

Azealia Banks on Instagram: “This was written by Elon Musk’s lawyer Dean Kristy. Not enough that they took my phone and tried tampering with evidence, - they are STILL…”

Of all the mistakes Musk has made, being associated with this women was a doozy. CNBC had an article regarding the investor lawsuits in which the lawyers for plaintiffs are seeking to depose Ms Banks. This is likely an attempt to pressure Tesla to settle or have TSLA and Musk raked through the muck. I know some will disagree but I think Tesla should settle this suit and get it out of the news quickly and avoid giving any more air time to Ms Banks.

Source: Elon Musk wants to keep ex-girlfriend Grimes out of an investor lawsuit over his take-private tweet

 

[Pezpunk]

Of all the mistakes Musk has made, being associated with this women was a doozy. CNBC had an article regarding the investor lawsuits in which the lawyers for plaintiffs are seeking to depose Ms Banks. This is likely an attempt to pressure Tesla to settle or have TSLA and Musk raked through the muck. I know some will disagree but I think Tesla should settle this suit and get it out of the news quickly and avoid giving any more air time to Ms Banks.

Source: Elon Musk wants to keep ex-girlfriend Grimes out of an investor lawsuit over his take-private tweet

arghh, unfortunately my "Buy On Dips Caused By Nonsense 100% Irrelevant to Tesla's Ability to Make a Profit Selling Cars" fund is all tapped out at the moment. Wall Street's absurd reaction to Tesla's great delivery numbers created too big a bargain to pass up.

 

[2virgule5]

Not sure if anyone worked this out yet... Tesla delivered 191,627 vehicles in USA 2018 according to InsideEVs.

(the 245,420 number is worldwide deliveries)

Total vehicles delivered in the USA = 17,270,000
Phil LeBeau on Twitter

I believe this means Tesla's 2018 marketshare in the USA was 1.1%. Not bad!

Yep.
Here: 2018: Will Tesla US Deliveries Top 1% US Market Share?

 

[anthonyj]

Of all the mistakes Musk has made, being associated with this women was a doozy. CNBC had an article regarding the investor lawsuits in which the lawyers for plaintiffs are seeking to depose Ms Banks. This is likely an attempt to pressure Tesla to settle or have TSLA and Musk raked through the muck. I know some will disagree but I think Tesla should settle this suit and get it out of the news quickly and avoid giving any more air time to Ms Banks.

Source: Elon Musk wants to keep ex-girlfriend Grimes out of an investor lawsuit over his take-private tweet

I hope Elon/Tesla pays out to the longs who were fooled by this tweet. I got screwed hard and I’m sure many people got margin calls

 

[kyzhk]

Some short term risk in the near future:

If Trump continues his tamper tantrum and hence the government shutdown, lots of the government workers won't get their paycheck in the coming period - and this would turn into mortgage / credit card defaults.

If it continues into Feb, IRS is also not working at their capacity and there will be more issues with tax refund and revenue stream.

Let's see how this unfolds, I am thinking of some out of the money puts for S&P as a short term hedge...

 

[M3Rider]

Not sure if anyone worked this out yet... Tesla delivered 191,627 vehicles in USA 2018 according to InsideEVs.

(the 245,420 number is worldwide deliveries)

Total vehicles delivered in the USA = 17,270,000
Phil LeBeau on Twitter

I believe this means Tesla's 2018 marketshare in the USA was 1.1%. Not bad!

Ok, but also this looks like more total sales than in 2017 and more than a consensus estimate of 16.7m per article quoted in the poll:
Another down year ahead?

Who said here that the sales are falling because people are waiting for an affordable EV?
They are not falling.

 

[neroden]

OT

Boring a tunnel is rather different than excavating a plot around a house, don't you think? BTW, Elon has stated that pretty much everything with home construction is a field ripe for disruption, but that he already has too much on his plate.

At one point long ago - though I never got around to it - I had been considering building a geothermal heat store for my then greenhouse. Rather than excavating, my plan was to use an auger and drill 90° intersecting diagonal holes, to then slide pipes down into (with a 90° joint at the end of one of each pair of pipes, for the other to slot into). So you'd end up with a sort of "repeating V" pattern that goes underground, back up, underground, back up, etc. I figured that a bunch of auger holes would be one heck of a lot cheaper (and easier) than having to excavate a whole plot of ground to a significant depth. Never did get a chance to try that approach out, though.

That's actually essentially how my parents' geothermal was installed. The hole-drilling stuff is not that different from the stuff used to drill for oil wells, but smaller. The major problem is that the hole-drilling equipment is expensive and finicky. If it breaks, you have a lot of workers getting paid to wait while the repairman comes. There's a large fixed cost to bringing the equipment *on site at all*, so it doesn't make sense if you only need to drill like, one or two holes; it's only worth it if you're drilling a lot of holes.

 

[tivoboy]

Some short term risk in the near future:

If Trump continues his tamper tantrum and hence the government shutdown, lots of the government workers won't get their paycheck in the coming period - and this would turn into mortgage / credit card defaults.

If it continues into Feb, IRS is also not working at their capacity and there will be more issues with tax refund and revenue stream.

Let's see how this unfolds, I am thinking of some out of the money puts for S&P as a short term hedge...

I bought some mar220 spy for 1.55$ today

 

[neroden]

Here are my guesses:

• India is problematic due to very high import tariffs and comparably low disposable income which makes it a luxury car market equivalent to a larger European country. There's growth potential no doubt, but only an Indian Gigafactory will solve the import tax problem I believe.
• Eastern Europe is probably the next step - the recent announcement that SuperCharger network will cover all of Europe by the end of 2019 suggests that Tesla has all of Europe in mind.
• Brazil, Turkey and Egypt are marred by political instabilities.
• Israel, Argentina and Thailand are comparable small markets or have low disposable income.
• Iceland: Sorry @KarenRei, there are 56 cities in the U.S. alone with more than ~330k residents, and they are a market 100 times larger than Iceland. Iceland is about 0.1%-0.2% of the automotive market of the U.S. So Iceland is probably not at the top of Elon's capex TO-DO list!
  
• Russia already has a Tesla Store? announced plans for Russia expansion in 2017 - probably delayed due to the capex stop.
  
• South Africa might open a Tesla Store, if nothing but for sentimental reasons, and to have a beachhead to Africa.

Iceland basically needs one store/service center and two Superchargers; it just seems easy.
Puerto Rico certainly needs Tesla, but perhaps they're prioritizing replacing the power grid before delivering EVs.

 

[neroden]

My theory is that MR will be phased out once SR hits. Will never go to EU or China. It was always an extra std to plug the gap. SR will surprise with great specs.

And MY theory is that the new "cheaper" pack design will be used for SR, MR, and LR. Probably SR first, but then they'll shut down and replace the other lines one by one, first the MR lines, then the LR lines. This will probably come with range tweaks to all three versions (much like the constant range tweaks to Model S and X).

 

[MP3Mike]

And MY theory is that the new "cheaper" pack design will be used for SR, MR, and LR. Probably SR first, but then they'll shut down and replace the other lines one by one, first the MR lines, then the LR lines. This will probably come with range tweaks to all three versions (much like the constant range tweaks to Model S and X).

Rumor, from Carsonight, is that they are already making MR packs with the new design...

 

[gringotuanis]

Some short term risk in the near future:

If Trump continues his tamper tantrum and hence the government shutdown, lots of the government workers won't get their paycheck in the coming period - and this would turn into mortgage / credit card defaults.

If it continues into Feb, IRS is also not working at their capacity and there will be more issues with tax refund and revenue stream.

Let's see how this unfolds, I am thinking of some out of the money puts for S&P as a short term hedge...

Government shutdown are good for the economy. Just keep it shutdown, no one cares. Probably better for the market anyway haha. Disclosure long lots and lots of TSLA calls.

 

[gringotuanis]

I'm not particularly impressed - we haven't yet got back all the money that was stolen from us earlier in the week.

Yeah we were at $330s Monday. Until the FUD machine got started. Amazing how gullible the public is.