Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jhm]

@jhm: kind of like like muscle memory, once you've lifted a certain amount of weight? it's easier to come back to it even after a long period of inactivity. Once you're mind has determined that your body is capable of doing something, it'll be easier to do it again. $900 registered in people's mind makes it less of a resistance in the future. Do you think it'll have the opposite effect on some shorts? If this is now a "$900" stock, many of them won't want to touch it at this level?

Right. It think shorts are implementing more of scorched earth sort of strategy. They are attempting to sell high and cover low. That does not appear to be their game. Rather they are trying to destroy the floor. The sell low and try to bust the Overton windows down to zero. There is no rational price at which they will cover. The objective is to destroy Tesla, not to turn a quick trading profit. They are attempting to normalize the unthinkable.

 

[dl003]

Is this the result of another wave of short term call buyers loading up?

 

[Curt Renz]

Todd Rosenbluth - CFRA Research - yesterday:

Does Your ETF Own Tesla?

Excerpt:
View attachment 508533

EDIT: Rosenbluth's daily newsletter is primarily aimed at ETF/mutual fund managers. I'm on the emailing list due to being friends with the firm's chief market strategist.

Who do you think is doing the buying? Long? Institution? MM? Short covering?

The timing of the above quoted post of mine coincided with the start of today's primary upthrust, and may have inspired some fund managers.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Tesla in hyper growth mode, copying entire factories for Model 3 and Y 4 times around the planet.

 

[Dare]

All those RobinHood accounts that panicked are getting another lesson in Stonks 101

 

[ZsoZso]

I read on this thread several times, that gaps in the stock graph tend to get filled later on -- although I do not know whether there is any actual market mechanism behind this or its just a chartist superstition.

Anyhow, when the Q4 ER released after-hours, the stock jumped from ~578 to ~640 and has been trading above that ever since. So if there is truth in the gap filling, we ought to get back down there and fill that gap. I guess shorty air force will help with that tomorrow when the uptick rule is lifted.

 

[Mkorpal]

800 is a wall

We'll find out soon just how hard it bounces.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Who do you think is doing the buying? Long? Institution? MM? Short covering?

How does that matter? Tail don't wag the dog. With 450K contracts expiring tomorrow, MMs will force their will upon the market.

 

[FrankSG]

Was there some sort of upwards uptick rule as well? If the stock goes up too much in too short a period, does some circuit breaker activate?

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Watching the stock trade more or less sideways for several minutes, I thought "it will be nice if it finally settles down into a more sane pattern". 5 minutes later I was reminded how foolish I was to think that

 

[dl003]

How does that matter? Tail don't wag the dog. With 450K contracts expiring tomorrow, MMs will force their will upon the market.

I mean it'd be weird if MM is buying right now only to try to get it down to 750 later or tomorrow. It'd also be weird if longs are buying at this level instead of licking our wounds. Am I thinking this right?

 

[henchman24]

Watching the stock trade more or less sideways for several minutes, I thought "it will be nice if it finally settles down into a more sane pattern". 5 minutes later I was reminded how foolish I was to think that

Same...

 

[mejojo]

Nope, with taxes factored in, a member pointed out that selling at that price level will require the share to drop below 701 just to be worth it, and anything above is a net loss or break even.

ONLY if you were planning on your instrument to be long-term to begin with. If you got a bonus at work for $9000, would you say "No thanks, give me $7000 because it's the same thing.

 

[azaz]

honestly all I can do is sit back and laugh at this price action, up $100 intraday

 

[Cherry Wine]

Argh - on a flight this morning and didn’t have an opportunity to buy back some upper ends of call spreads when we went below $700! This thing is bullish AF.

This was due to the sudden jump in delta shares sold from the increase in put options late in trading. The rally was likely driven by increased delta demand from call options prior to the huge put bet (likely towards $8bn of new put option delta exposure was bet on the market on Tuesday).

Let me just say that I love this forum. Such a pleasant way to spend an hour in the air - learning so much. Thank you for your contributions here.

I read on this thread several times, that gaps in the stock graph tend to get filled later on -- although I do not know whether there is any actual market mechanism behind this or its just a chartist superstition.

Anyhow, when the Q4 ER released after-hours, the stock jumped from ~578 to ~640 and has been trading above that ever since. So if there is truth in the gap filling, we ought to get back down there and fill that gap. I guess shorty air force will help with that tomorrow when the uptick rule is lifted.

Gaps don’t always fill. There was a big gap in 2013 that never filled, and the gap post Q3’19 earnings will probably never fill either. It’s less likely that Q4’19 doesn’t fill right now, but it’s definitely possible.

 

[Cupidchild]

Nope, with taxes factored in, a member pointed out that selling at that price level will require the share to drop below 701 just to be worth it, and anything above is a net loss or break even.

can you share the math behind this ? Is it b/c of short term capital gains tax ?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Is this the result of another wave of short term call buyers loading up?

I know nothing, but it looks to me as though any time a significant chunk is purchased there aren't a lot of sellers around to provide shares.

Traders poured gasoline on the rise as institutional investors were piling in and reclaimed a lot of that SP, but now that we're back on the regular trend line you can't buy without jolting the price upward. And some shorts need to cover.

Again, I know nothing, this just feels like a nice tight setup to me. Who exactly is going to sell below $700? Us? Elon with his 20% of float? The institutional investors who just jumped in at $550-900? That seems.....unlikely.

 

[WarpedOne]

Google TSLA, select 1M or 6M period ... pattern continues...

 

[Singuy]

I texted my wife TSLA price today and called it fake news. Options market can suck a d.

 

[StealthP3D]

I’ve lost track of who ‘he’ is, but M3rider correctly quoted the Teslarati article which misquoted Grace. The link was to the teslarati article.

Please stop the nonsense! M3Rider claimed the post in the Teslarati article hinted at the GF3 being closed for Q2 or Q3. Even the poorly formatted and translated quote from Grace did not hint at that. He did not correctly represent the Teslarati article even though he continued to insist he did after his error was pointed out.

There is not much grey area here so it's really highlighting those who stand on the side of FUD and misinformation!