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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Was there a relation between the Superbowl BEV ads and TSLA price explosion Monday Morning?
Personally, I think so. A lot of people who didn't think EVs were really a thing suddenly saw 4 companies advertising them.

A momentary flash of green as we have a fight for $750 at close...
 
Just wanted to ask again. I want to lock in the price today at 740 but i don't know if I should buy a Sep 21 call with SP 740, 370 or anything in between.
No idea, but buying deeper in the money means more money up front, but lower risk of losing all of your purchase price.

The worst feeling in the world is to be an uber bull, selling out your position, hoping for the dip, and then the dip doesn't happen as you wished. It's 10x worst than just see money disappearing from your account as the stock drops like a rock.

I remember selling my position out of AMD waiting for a dip just to see the stock doubled in 2 months had me not wanting to eat. However AMD has dipped so many time when I held and felt perfectly fine bag holding. The reason is I think because you spend hours of your life studying a particular stock that you see can 10x over the next 3-5 years and fully content bag holding because you're so sure you're right. But the minute the stock breaks out without you onboard due to fear/greed for that split second..man that's a devastating feeling. Almost feels like you sold your child.

So the person who probably feels the WORST is Neroden. Especially if service for him pulled through and he realized he was so hung on to something that can be fixed with time.
Allegedly a guy on Reddit was up 4.3 million on 1k calls this week and did not sell. Remind me to never make that mistake. My dumb mistake was buying 2 1k calls from profits on other options I sold in case it jumped higher. I only lost 6k. :confused:
 
A mod chickening out, now that’s a story. I saw some people have been referring to my decision to liquidate my whole TSLA position after the SP came crashing down from 960. Why that happened? Lately I had been too much focussed on the effect of the stock movements on the financial value of my portfolio, which at the top was up 720k, and a few trading hours later was up 520k. After having ridden the SP down from 300 to 178 in the spring of 2019 I thought I had balls of steel. But my stomach was the problem. It churned. So I bailed.

At first that felt good, the uncertainty was gone. But that didn’t last long. In fact, just a few hours.

I am a true believer in a bright future for Tesla. It will be the #1 technology brand in the world. And likely the most valuable company in the world. I believe the stock value will go up at least 10x and maybe even 20x. But in the heat of the moment I lost sight of all of that.

It felt as if I had betrayed Elon, who several times went through hell to save Tesla. And as if I had betrayed all the steadfast longs here, a lot of whom I’ve started to appreciate over the last years. I visited this thread yesterday, but felt like an outsider. I saw you guys complain and cheer, but couldn’t join you.

I started to watch some videos. Cathy Wood. Ron Baron. David Lee. The ones by David were especially helpful. I started to realize that I had to focus less on the swings and look more at the long trend and focus on the long term goal I’ve set for myself. And if it drops 100-200 points, that doesn’t make much difference because we know it will be 10-bagger or 20-bagger. I got my confidence back. Huge shout out to @DaveT.

So today I decided to get back in. All in. No timing, because in the end it doesn’t really matter if you get in at 735 or 765. Or even 550, 650 or 850. I ended up buying at 745, which does lower the base price for my shares by 15 points to 225 (but that’s no reason to do this again!).

It feels incredibly good to be back in! And even if it goes down, maybe even by a lot, I’ll hang in there. With all of you. Because I know what the goal is and I know we will get there. There will be a lot of dips along the way, but that’s okay.

So I hope you guys will take back the lost son... :oops:

And now you have like 20% more shares. Don't feel bad!
 
I have a tin-foil hat theory that says that part of the reason why GF Austin might be the spot is that John Goodenough does his research at UT. For those who don't know, he invented the lithium ion battery, and has apparently been working on solid state batteries with other researchers. Some people have connected some dots that suggest he has also been working with Tesla for some time.

That could definitely be a case of correlation (lots of tech talent in that area) vs causation, but it is interesting.

Gali's head is going to explode.
 

Taycan 4: Porsche has a particular set of skills to rob you over you money for piss poor range.
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Takes more time than this to settle, IMO. But it is a fair price today.

In 2018 the last two quarters were profitable but the first quarter was really bad because of Model s and x tanking in sales big time. This for sure will not happen again and the street in all their wisdom is expecting it to. The next big catalyst is ANY profit in the next quarter.. The end of the tax credit meant a lot to these high tax bracket, wealthy s and x buyers. No way this will happen again for the more middle class less tax conscious, less credit 3 buyers.
 
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No idea, but buying deeper in the money means more money up front, but lower risk of losing all of your purchase price.


Allegedly a guy on Reddit was up 4.3 million on 1k calls this week and did not sell. Remind me to never make that mistake. My dumb mistake was buying 2 1k calls from profits on other options I sold in case it jumped higher. I only lost 6k. :confused:

Ha, I did the same - bought 3x $1000's for today and lost the premium. I entered this fully in the knowledge that it was a total gamble. On another week it might have gone the other direction.

And I bought a $905 put when we were in the mid-900's. This should be exercised now, which I'm OK about as I'm going to sell a call(s) against those shares, but will wait until Monday when I should normally get a better environment for that. Of course I pocketed $4500 premium for the Sale anyway, so the delta isn't as bad as it appears.

Despite the above, has been a very profitable week!
 
Why is the sports car with 4 doors? Should have made it 2 and stick to the tried and tested sports-car layout! :rolleyes::D

Because the initial goal was to beat a Model S, which means they can fit a large pack and can afford to be heavy. Also the Model S had many short comings at the time(over heating, lower range, etc etc).

It was the right choice to have 4 doors because having 2 doors will immediate put their car up against the Roadster 2.0 and it'll just get smoked.

Just like how iPace and Etron are suppose to be "Model X killers" even though they have the same amount of interior space as a mode 3. Only way to justify the range and price tag even though they are not in the same class. Just good old fashion marketing while reviewers will always compare SUV to SUV, sedan to sedan.
 
If I may ask a noob question: If one wanted to buy an ITM call for late 2021 with the intention to exercise, is there an easy way to determine a good combination of strike price & premium?

Easy way? Don't think so.

I used to pull up the option chain for the expiration date I was interested in and copied and pasted the data into a spreadsheet. Add the bid price to the strike price column and that's the "cost" for that option assuming you wanted to exercise.

Usually it tapers down, with the cost approaching the current SP as the strike price lowers. Sometimes you might find outliers, because of low demand (and thus high asking prices) for that particular option, but it's usually pretty consistent.
 
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In 2018 the last two quarters were profitable but the first quarter was really bad because of Model s and x tanking in sales big time. This for sure will not happen again and the street in all their wisdom is expecting it too. The next big catalyst is ANY profit in the next quarter.. The end of the tax credit meant a lot to these wealthy s and x buyers. No way this will happen again for the more middle class less tax conscious, less credit 3 buyers.
Prices have gone down on the 3 in line with tax credit decreases. I definitely agree that if they can squeeze even a tiny profit in Q1 that will be the next catalyst. The bears are positive that Q1 and then 2020 in general will be a demand disaster. I think many of us longs are also still traumatized by Q1 19. I'm hoping my pessimism is unwarranted. Q1 results will overshadow Model Y ramp and battery day by far, unless the announce something really crazy.

WARNING:

my brother bought $1,880 calls. He doesn’t know how calls work. Every time he’s purchased calls he made 10x-100x. Every time he buys a stock it turns to gold. I don’t understand how it works, but that’s just how it is. So there’s my warning
What's the expiration date?
 
From my understanding they just value vehicles regardless of powertrain. While I disagree with his conclusions I question whether there is any loyalty to ICE vehicles. It's more likely that he is drawing poor conclusions.

This is not the first time they(he in particular) has spoken out publicly against Tesla. They’ve basically been ardently opposed to them from the beginning.
 
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You know Lucid guy is 2012 Tesla Model S chief engineer guy right?

Yes, and left in Jan 2012 several months before the heavy lifting of making Model S started. Reason for departure given at the time was that he wanted to attend to some family matter back in the UK. I bought that story until he turned up at Lucid the following year. Take a leave of absence, do family, return. That’s how you’d do it if things are good.

Adding: He’s worked his way up to CEO of Lucid as of last year and now he’s trash talking Tesla.

Sampson also left at the same time without any explanation. So I contend they both got told to pack their things.

It was Jerome who stepped in and Eric Bach.

PETER RAWLINSON AND NICK SAMPSON LEAVE TESLA! | Tesla
 
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