Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Nocturnal]

I can't decide if it's wishful thinking or not, but even though another big dip is possible (I'm thinking it's likely), there are many more eyeballs on the stock now and it will be much harder for anyone to really push it too far below fair value.

Alternatively, because people on the internet make things up and then you could have younger and more naive investors following the advice/activity of someone whose activity isn't even real, thus leading into the FOMO we keep posting about.

If that's the concern then any talk of profits, especially on options, should also be avoided.

 

[UncaNed]

With some shame I have to admit I temporarily got shaken out. So yeah, I'm a weak long now. I rode it all the way down from 350 to 178 and kept buying. The lowering of my average price insulated me against the drop last spring.

But the last 20 hours the manipulations, the huge movements and the amounts at stake were getting too much for me. So I cashed out at 760 this morning with a profit op $xxx (yep, I know I could have chosen a much better moment as that is near the low).

I will look if I can get back in over the next weeks when things settle down, because I fully believe in the long term prospects of this company. Maybe I'll start writing puts and buying long-term calls, but I first need to switch provider to be able to do that as my current provider does't offer options. Sorry guys for participating in this drop.

Thanks to many of you guys I got so accustomed to riding the TSLA coaster that the ASTONISHING recent roller coaster ride down from the top hardly phased me!

Listening to many of y'all talk about options that expire in such short times as weeks or months has been my biggest WTF!??!? since I bought my first shares. Almost all my options won't expire for about 2 years or so, so maybe I could ride this coaster down to $150 again, wait around, puff on a blunt, take Elon-dance lessons, wait for SP $1,000 and still probably come out OK.

@Causalien or @Nocturnal (?) I think it was mentioned something about desiring some more shares, wouldn't call options that expire in June 2022 be relatively cautious by virtue of their being 2-1/2 years from expiration; so much time to recover in the event of a recession or other severe drop in stock price so that would likely secure his goal? Isn't longer time till expiration a simple, mindless way to remove a little risk?

(Edited many, many times.)

(Am I the only one who needs to see their posted comment before seeing what they need to edit?)

 

[RobStark]

Lucid: Tesla hasn't cracked it, we can take it to whole new level of range and efficiency - Electrek

Sorry if someone posted already. Lucid guy talking big about being better than Tesla without a single car made and sold.

But you know, if Fred was impressed than we all should be

You know Lucid guy is 2012 Tesla Model S chief engineer guy right?

 

[Swampgator]

You know Lucid guy is 2012 Tesla Model S chief engineer guy right?

No. That would be Elon Musk

 

[humbaba]

I have a tin-foil hat theory that says that part of the reason why GF Austin might be the spot is that John Goodenough does his research at UT. For those who don't know, he invented the lithium ion battery, and has apparently been working on solid state batteries with other researchers. Some people have connected some dots that suggest he has also been working with Tesla for some time.

That could definitely be a case of correlation (lots of tech talent in that area) vs causation, but it is interesting.

Just an FYI for anyone putting any meaning into Goodenough's name being associated with research should read two blog posts.

On the skepticism surrounding the "Goodenough battery"
The Braga/Goodenough glass battery part 2: of course I'm still skeptical

 

[AudubonB]

what peril is in store for people who don't care who knows how many shares they own? is it merely moderator-induced peril because it is annoying, or is there some other reason?

As written, you’re welcome to do so at your peril. There are some who might opine that the posts and opinions of one who does so are of equal wisdom.

 

[Remus]

RobStark, ask and you shall receive. Here is another photo from the back.View attachment 508912
This is an entire new bus design from the ground up for TTC. I don't see Tesla ever getting into the bus market (wouldn't that be nice) as there is a lot of viable products and Tesla has bigger fish to fry (battery constraints), however I do see in the not too distant future Tesla providing the battery packs for large manufacturers of buses. The worst is walking my kids to school and seeing the line-up of half a dozen school bus diesels pumping out noxious fumes idling away while the kids are embarking. Makes me sick....and makes the kids sick...literally. Electrification of electric vehicles could not come soon enough.

Two kinds of buses drastically different requirement.

City buses with designated route, usually at low speed, frequent start/stop. That seems to be a low hanging fruit that I am really surprised not many companies competing. BYD buses seems to be selling even with their low efficiency batteries and pathetic slow charging.

Long haul inter city buses are harder. But I still think those should be easier than semi trucks. The market is much smaller though.

 

[Dare]

Welp, can somebody lend me 5 bucks for my pillow?

 

[dl003]

If I may ask a noob question: If one wanted to buy an ITM call for late 2021 with the intention to exercise, is there an easy way to determine a good combination of strike price & premium?

 

[Nocturnal]

@Causalien or @Nocturnal (?) I think it was mentioned something about desiring some more shares, wouldn't call options that expire in June 2022 be relatively cautious by virtue of their being 2-1/2 years from expiration; so much time to recover in the event of a recession or other severe drop in stock price so that would likely secure his goal?

(Am I the only one who needs to see their posted comment before seeing what they need to edit?)

I edit all the time after posting because I usually type things out too fast.

I'm not an options expert by any measure. From what I gather you have to factor in the greater cost per share, and your time value of money. As a noob I've been looking for what I feel are "cheap" options, out of the money, with an expiration just past big events that I expect the stock to react to. So far so good but it's probably just luck. Options are very expensive right now though so I'm sitting it out for now.

 

[gerebgraus]

At iv of 80% I usually do certain trades targeting a return to normmal vol of 40%. It is extremely lucrative at 125%

But you were right about oct. The thing about options is, unless you day trade and monitor it all the time, it gets easy to miss these things as there are too many variables to investigate.

To be honest the past few weeks have been lucrative, but I am nearing the end of my stamina keeping up with analysis all the time since trading is not my main focus in life.

My guess is that MMs do not look at fundamentals, event calendars, etc. They look at historical prices and they look at current trading. I.e. they do not know about upcoming events, but they see the option buying activity speculating for that event. You are likely right that the volatility in the past couple days raised substantially IV, and if you believe that the last couple days volatility will not continue then betting to the expected return to normal could be profitable. I do not think the normal is less than 40% for a while.

 

[SageBrush]

Options are very expensive right now though so I'm sitting it out for now.

Noob (and probably stupid) question:

Could you buy and sell two options close together ?

 

[mongo]

Noob (and probably stupid) question:

Could you buy and sell two options close together ?

Yes
Which Vertical Option Spread Should You Use?
See also:
Advanced TSLA Options Trading

 

[Singuy]

So cute that they tried to push the stock price down from 750. After this week I am a firm believer of max pain. I mean what kind of precision of manipulation one can have to push and pull a stock to exactly max pain despite + and - 20% volatility all week? That's like a drone strike on a moving vehicle kind of precision.

 

[Tim S]

TSLA SP performance on the last 8 Mondays + Tuesdays (going back from Feb 3-4 to Dec 16-17):

+ $237
+ $2
+ $37
+ $59
+ $25
- $12
+ $19
+ $21

I would not want to be short over the weekend.

 

[capster]

what peril is in store for people who don't care who knows how many shares they own? is it merely moderator-induced peril because it is annoying, or is there some other reason?

The whale that spouts gets harpooned.

 

[Todd Burch]

Lucid: Tesla hasn't cracked it, we can take it to whole new level of range and efficiency - Electrek

Sorry if someone posted already. Lucid guy talking big about being better than Tesla without a single car made and sold.

But you know, if Fred was impressed than we all should be

Lucid Motors was founded in 2007. 13 years ago.

Jeez they've been talking smack for 13 years and still haven't produced a single car. Who the heck is funding them?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Now over 210M shares of TSLA traded this week.

I'll publish a weekly summary with VWSP and total $ales figures once all the data is in from NASDAQ.

Cheers!

 

[carterm2]

I just found a site on the coronavirus that I think might be useful.

It tracks the progress of cases. Notably I do not seen a large percentage of recovered patient numbers... perhaps in a week or two. But there is some slight indication of an improvement in the situation, just in the last two days, and yes it is too early to tell.

Coronavirus Cases: Total and Daily with Charts and Statistics - Worldometer

 

[dl003]

Lucid Motors was founded in 2007. 13 years ago.

Jeez they've been talking smack for 13 years and still haven't produced a single car. Who the heck is funding them?

Their car is aptly named though, credit where credit due. Lucid Air.