Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Todd Burch]

peach wrecked ignition hardly a solved problem. a few missed steaks could kill many if applied to full-of-self driving.


note: voice reply to message transcribed by google, excuse any typos

This has got to be the funniest and most useful post ever made on this thread, hehe.

 

[vwman111]

Tesla can get support for German factory: Economy Minister

A break of $970 on Monday can see $2-3k on Tuesday

I love the optimism. Keeps me coming back...might inform a trade or two as well.

 

[aronth5]

There's plenty of qualified labor here in Buffalo. The problem has been in ramping up solar roofing.

Nice to see such good progress from Assemblyman Sean Ryan who just toured the factory and was interviewed on radio.

""The factory is built out. It has complete lines running, product moving around, people are there, so it's really transformed itself into what we've been hoping for," says Ryan.
"I have to report I was pleasantly surprised," saying he was last there 15 months ago and saw a lot of empty space."
Ryan: Pleasantly Surprised by Tesla Progress

 

[thait84]

Tesla can get support for German factory: Economy Minister

A break of $970 on Monday can see $2-3k on Tuesday

1880 February calls, funding secured.

 

[Rashomon]

This is kinda sorta matching up with my envelope arithmetic of the cost reductions in battery needed to explain the Semi and cybertruck pricing.

Tesla has been telegraphing since the semi announcement, and even more so with the CyberTruck, that it expects battery cost to plummet. Battery Day is going to be interesting indeed.

 

[SageBrush]

Tesla has been telegraphing since the semi announcement, and even more so with the CyberTruck, that it expects battery cost to plummet. Battery Day is going to be interesting indeed.

I would go so far as to say a watershed moment if successful

 

[StealthP3D]

Time to short Tesla?

Love this old video of Mark Spiegel from 2016...IT IS SO FUNNY!

Every prediction is diametrically opposed to what eventually happened.

Man! That CNBC segment with Mark Spiegel didn't age well!

A few people here make impassioned pleas that we shouldn't discuss what Mark Spiegel says or does because he is a nobody. But I think he's fair game as long he is getting airtime on national networks.

As time goes on, there is no doubt that he looks more and more stupid, too stupid to be managing anyone's money. On the bright side, at least if your name is not "Mark Spiegel", he manages less and less of other people's money as time goes on. Most people become more successful as they age and gain experience. Not Mark Spiegel. Every year that goes by establishes his place in history as a bigger idiot than the year before. He couldn't find his way out of a cardboard box. Every year that passes proves his analysis was not worth the paper (or even the computer memory) that it was written on. Moore's Law cannot solve this fundamental problem as his analysis is becoming less valuable faster than computer memory is declining in price. To be brutally honest, his opinion has a negative value. Anyone who has followed his advice has painfully learned their lesson. As time goes on, more and more people understand just how much of an idiot he has been.

Last night my wife and I watched the movie "Idiocracy" since it was recommended here. Absolutely hilarious! Mark Spiegel would fit right in. If they make a sequel, "Idiocracy II" he might even have a job!

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Man! That CNBC segment with Mark Spiegel didn't age well!

A few people here make impassioned pleas that we shouldn't discuss what Mark Spiegel says or does because he is a nobody. But I think he's fair game as long he is getting airtime on national networks.

As time goes on, there is no doubt that he looks more and more stupid, too stupid to be managing anyone's money. On the bright side, at least if your name is not "Mark Spiegel", he manages less and less of other people's money as time goes on. Most people become more successful as they age and gain experience. Not Mark Spiegel. Every year that goes by establishes his place in history as a bigger idiot than the year before. He couldn't find his way out of a cardboard box. Every year that passes proves his analysis was not worth the paper (or even the computer memory) that it was written on. Moore's Law cannot solve this fundamental problem as his analysis is becoming less valuable faster than computer memory is declining in price. To be brutally honest, his opinion has a negative value. Anyone who has followed his advice has painfully learned their lesson. As time goes on, more and more people understand just how much of an idiot he has been.

Last night my wife and I watched the movie "Idiocracy" since it was recommended here. Absolutely hilarious! Mark Spiegel would fit right in. If they make a sequel, "Idiocracy II" he might even have a job!

As I remember, he can’t even cover at the right times. He consistently covers his short bets with Tesla at a local maximum, right before a big pullback.

 

[JustMe]

I just soiled myself by reading through a TeslaQ thread. They are forecasting 60-80 k deliveries for Q1. How does that sound?

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Tesla has been telegraphing since the semi announcement, and even more so with the CyberTruck, that it expects battery cost to plummet. Battery Day is going to be interesting indeed.

What Tesla desperately needs is battery supply. I'm more interested in how they plan on solving that during the Battery Day briefing.

 

[SageBrush]

What Tesla desperately needs is battery supply. I'm more interested in how they plan on solving that during the Battery Day briefing.

Tightly linked questions.

 

[Krugerrand]

So, what do we call it when this MMs-options-delta-hedging-share-purchase-exponential-feedback-loop occurs next time?

Christmas

 

[SageBrush]

Ahh ... the irony

Google is feeding me an advert on TMC of a 'private equity investment opportunity in retail hotel development.'
It stinks of ponzi scheme, but it made me wonder why I am targeted. Either my occasional reading of the tslaQ cesspool, or the smell of new money at TMC.

Either way, it was good for a chuckle before bedtime.

 

[goinfraftw]

Nice to see such good progress from Assemblyman Sean Ryan who just toured the factory and was interviewed on radio.

""The factory is built out. It has complete lines running, product moving around, people are there, so it's really transformed itself into what we've been hoping for," says Ryan.
"I have to report I was pleasantly surprised," saying he was last there 15 months ago and saw a lot of empty space."
Ryan: Pleasantly Surprised by Tesla Progress

Listening to the audio in that link...Assemblyman Ryan says Tesla Buffalo is currently running 12 lines with solarglass roofs, solar paneling/equipment, and 'onboard batteries' (which ties to Tesla Automotive).

Hiring: they're at >1100 employees and going to 1400. They have all the equipment and looking to hire to run those lines and are very confident in making the hiring deadline.

 

[AZRI11]

Nice to see such good progress from Assemblyman Sean Ryan who just toured the factory and was interviewed on radio.

""The factory is built out. It has complete lines running, product moving around, people are there, so it's really transformed itself into what we've been hoping for," says Ryan.
"I have to report I was pleasantly surprised," saying he was last there 15 months ago and saw a lot of empty space."
Ryan: Pleasantly Surprised by Tesla Progress

Assemblyman Sean Ryan mentions a 2nd onboard battery being produced there. What is that? Maybe he misspoke in the interview. Assemblyman Sean Ryan

 

[Fact Checking]

Assemblyman Sean Ryan mentions a 2nd onboard battery being produced there. What is that? Maybe he misspoke in the interview. Assemblyman Sean Ryan

Could it be a li-ion replacement for the lead-acid low voltage safety battery? Lead-acid batteries have only 2-4 years lifespan in climates that have winter, which is annoying.

Since they are space constrained at GF1 and GF0 (Fremont), they might have these assembly lines at GF2.

 

[Fact Checking]

Tesla Next-Gen Battery With Maxwell Tech & Patents

The implications are the new cells might be 40mm diameter by perhaps 70mm long, with an energy density of 320Wh/kg, and a price well under $100/kWh. Of course, it may all be BS.

Note that this was written by Eva Fox of Tesmanian, and Tesmanian is run by Vincent Yu who is founding member of the Third Row Tesla podcast who recently interviewed Elon.

With that in mind, I think we should give this Tesmanian leak from "sources familiar with the matter" some credence:

"From a source familiar with this issue, it became known that the new Tesla battery will have at least 30% more capacity and will be several times cheaper to manufacture. The production process will be extremely efficient and will significantly save on capital costs for equipment. In this scenario, a 130kWh pack seems possible. It also became known that the new cell will have a diameter of approximately 1.57 inches. The new battery will have a different form factor, so most likely it will be used for Semi and/or Cybertruck."

...

"That is, in such battery cells there is more power, more energy storage, it has a higher charging speed and faster manufacturing speed, as well as much cheaper production."

"Maxwell has been working on this technology for more than 6 years, trying to improve it, perhaps this is what Musk talking about 'It's gonna blow your mind.'"
​

While a 30% increase in energy density is fantastic in itself and a game changer, "several times cheaper to manufacture" is the really big disclosure IMO, which would be incredible news - if true then Tesla will dominate not just personal vehicles, but also:

• Heavy duty trucks (Tesla Semi)
• Energy storage
• Mass transportation (buses need big batteries)
• Maybe even shipping: <$30/kWh battery costs makes EV freight ocean shipping a no-brainer: big ships would require 200-500 MWh packs - but EV shipping could also shorten transportation time, which would monopolize the medium time-critical cargo business. China->EU shipping time from 4 weeks to 2 weeks, US-EU shipping cut from 20 days to 10 days perhaps? If I was a country with cheap electricity and a healthy maritime transportation industry (Norway...) I'd be watching this space very closely.

TSLA = $4,200 secured?

 

[mrdoubleb]

“In my conversations with (Tesla CEO) Elon Musk I have always made clear that there are no privileges but also no discrimination,”

OK.

“Altmaier said in order to qualify for state subsidies companies needed to fulfill certain requirements in the areas of sustainability and battery efficiency.”

Hope Tesla can meet that challenge.

I don't know about that... It's gonna be super hard to beat the e-tron and the Taycan on efficiency.

 

[Tslynk67]

Hey gang, I held on to a sold put for Friday expiry at $905 - I decided I preferred to allow it to be exercised and have the shares assigned, but it's still just sitting there on my account. As I've always sold options prior to expiry before I have no idea on the timeline.

Anyone have experience with this? When will I get those shares? I have the cash to cover them, so no problems with that.

 

[Fact Checking]

I just soiled myself by reading through a TeslaQ thread. They are forecasting 60-80 k deliveries for Q1. How does that sound?

Actually, 60-80k deliveries sounds very reasonable, are they really predicting +25 growth over 62k deliveries in Q1'2019?

While 60k sounds a bit pessimistic, I could live with 80k deliveries. Let's make this the new baseline for our Q1 expectations?

Spoiler

Just kidding!

My real baseline expectations is 90k-95k deliveries - similar to Q3, but still profitable - enough for S&P 500 inclusion.