Great post, but I have two issues with it. First, I believe there's a huge number of car buyers who will feel they can't afford the additional upfront cost, never mind the lower TCO. Whether less cash on hand, poor credit, less willingness to absorb larger fixed monthly payments vs. maintenance that can often be delayed, etc. I don't think the entire market is going to turn on the basis of $40K cars with high resale value (meaning the used market doesn't help that much either). I think you have to make the assumption that -- in the China design center or elsewhere -- there will be a significantly lower up-front cost yet still high-range high-quality EV coming. It's a big ask, but we've got years, right?
And second, even if everyone starts to want EVs, what's the fastest that EV makers can scale up production by 100x? You're talking about 90% of an 80M/year global market.... I think Tesla would be doing well to hit 10x in 5 years (to 3.7M deliveries; would require more than GF Berlin & Shangai, I expect, or totally max them out at best)... for another 10x on top of that, there's a LOT of new factories, or else you have to believe all the OEMs are going to be way more successful transitioning to EVs than seems to be the common belief here.
Never mind batteries -- we're on the order of 100 GWh/yr for the EVs we're already getting, so if Battery Day/April Company Day reveals a plan to 1 TWh then that's only 10x, and we still need the plan to get to on the order of 10 TWh.
So when you say "much sooner than you expect", what are you expecting? Or what are you expecting we're expecting?
I have a hard time believing there will be 70M EVs sold per year any time in the next 10 years just because of the EV and battery production limitations.
(Though I'd be happy to be wrong. I know *I* won't be buying an ICE again.