Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[traxila]

Is it just me, or do the macros suddenly look sickly to you?

I am getting the feeling that some profit taking is due.... and I have absolutely no idea how this will affect TSLA. Of course, wholesale selling is wholesale selling....

Anyone else seeing this? Rally looking gassed all of a sudden.

BTW, based on my post you should probably go all in on calls at the QQQ.

EDIT: Sorry missed the FTC news. Guess that explains it. Anyone for another ATH tomorrow?

 

[adiggs]

Expect buyers remorse. Get a Roadster 2.0

Or an original Roadster! Though in fairness (and I say this as an original Roadster owner and lover of the car) - it's a lot of fun to drive, but I suspect the 911 is a better "driver's car" by a mile.

Nonetheless, there are original Roadsters for sale reasonably often and NOTHING turns heads going through a school zone or the grocery store parking lot like the original Roadster. just sayin'

 

[Kuhz]

The battle of green vs. red is in full swing

 

[Kuhz]

Going from options to just holding stock and LEAPs takes some psychological adjustment - that's what I've learned today.

The extreme volatility and amplified gains the last couple months have spoiled us......

I have to relearn to just hold again without trying to using ST options to play swings. Patience is a virtue, they say.

Also, I think it's time to treat myself to a gift. Is it blasphemy to use TSLA gains to buy my dream ICE weekend car (a 911 4S - I love driving manual)?… I will still be using a Model 3 as my daily

Do it. It’s a great car and in the end if it makes you happy, the rest is just numbers

 

[JustMe]

Uggh.
Please do not fight FUD with FUD. The high per kWh Ionity fee can be that high ... for outsiders like Tesla owners. Car owners from the manufacturers that are members of the network pay ~ 30 Euro cents a kWh

Thank you for the correction! Now I’ll give myself 30 lashings with a wet noodle

 

[SageBrush]

Not even all outsiders have to pay 79cent/kWh, you can still get contracts that give you roaming at Ionity for about as cheap as Tesla superchargers.

One example remains, and I don't expect that to last long.

Ionity has de-facto become the fast charging network for the German/Korean car owners, and for them the network is not expensive. <<shrug>> OK by me ... after Ionity returns the ~ 20% grant it took from the EU

 

[NicoV]

Is it blasphemy to use TSLA gains to buy my dream ICE weekend car (a 911 4S - I love driving manual)?

Yes.

 

[Lessmog]

not sure how to do that. Have added the twitter account name to post (@thirdrowtesla)

I don't do Twitter but sometimes quote (from my browser) some gems to people. A link to a particular tweet can be found behind the time stamp, and copypasted into an e-mail for example.

 

[ggr]

In general, just linking to an article isn't that useful. It really helps to have a summary or response to it. What I try to do is quote snippets and provide commentary. While the legalities of copying someone else's content is murky*, one of the points considered is the amount of the content -- so while a complete copy isn't necessarily illegal it is a very significant strike against and it is understandable why the terms of service here would simply forbid it.

My suggestion is to avoid just posting links and to only quote portions that you are commenting on.

* I say that because it can really only be settled in court due to it being a matter of interpreting guidelines

edit: after thought -- if this is "OT" why post it? Because it is topical in the meta sense and I think the point is worth broader exposure than a PM. But using spoiler to assist those who don't care in just scrolling past.

Official Moderator position: If the article is behind a subscription or a paywall, it's because they want to make money out of it. So posting all of the contents is a very clear copyright law violation, and exposes TMC to liability. Note that copyright law is not the same as plagiarism. Also the image was licensed, a second and separate copyright violation. I hope this is clear.

Oh, and edit: hiding it behind a spoiler tag doesn't stop it being a copyright violation.
-- ggr.

 

[neezer]

The battle of green vs. red is in full swing

Even when the vol is so-so? Today ~11m

 

[wipster]

Meh day, nice close!

 

[Opus BC fan]

Good share price consolidation. This is the foundation for going to the next level.

 

[davecolene0606]

IMHO, Ark Invest, Gali and similar commenters all seem to build their TSLA $7,000 thesis on autonomous related services. It seems to me, that the whole of Tesla's future growth and ability to fulfill its stated goal, is based on its ability to accelerate power storage capacity (Battery) production into the multiple terawatt territory. All of the other stories hang on this thread. Tesla Semi production has been pushed back for lack of capacity as stated during the Q4 call. Every other manufacturer/wanna be are starved of storage and while Solar roof closes the cosmetic issues associated with rooftop, PV and wind only work as a solution in combination with robust storage capacity. At the power wall roll out Elon talked about how much storage/renewable power it would take to power the world and he does so continuously always subtly, but always addressed.

We as investors, desperately need to insert ourselves into "Tesla April Company Talk" whether it's by portion questions (Think "SAY") to a known attendee or one of us attending otherwise we're stuck with the mostly ridiculously uninformed questions of a bunch of automotive analysts! In any case, IMO the trillion dollar value, much less "mission accomplished" ain't goin anywhere with out the power storage manufacturing capacity. This is what we need to know. The path to Terawatts of power storage. If that is clearly teased out of company talk day, IMO, alpha launch will be unstoppable.

Elon has stated over and over again that TE is where there is at least... at least, the FULL value of automotive. So many folks seem to be myopically focused on the autonomous mobility as the prime mover. IMO it is tangential to Tesla Energy which is the path to displacing the ENTIRE fossil fuel industry. Many words have been written here as to the immense daily net profits, never mind revenues, pulled in by this industry. Given a successful path to hundreds Terawatts per year, those kinds of revenues will belong to Tesla. Unlike the fossil fuel industry, Teslas costs are decreasing and even at lower margins, the scale of the commodity cells in combination with the high margin BMS/ distribution system will produce "gushers" of cash that will make ARAMCO look like a corner candy store business.

(and oh yea, we don't ruin the joint for ourselves and our offspring)

Fire Away!
(It's the batteries, Stupid!)

 

[VQTRVA]

Americans spend about $9k a year on average for cars, gas, repairs and insurance. Mean income per capita is just over $50k.

I often hear "Americans will never give up their cars! I want my own car, I'll never share!". People may think that, but when you have a nation where the median family has $5k or less in retirement savings (mean is $90k), median total savings of $11k, (mean $175k) it's hard to imagine that a great many would not embrace far cheaper autonomous ride sharing.

And of course that's an American centric viewpoint. I believe most of the rest of the world will be far more amenable to sharing.

Special bonus on that tweet. That Luis Cruthers teslaq guy is going on about the stolen material conspiracy at Freemont. Right. Elon is worth billions and has spent his time facilitating the theft of 37 million in copper wiring. F-ing morons.

LOL!!! so True!

Anyhow back to your other point, I am a prototypical American car guy. Have always been.

But I noticed that anytime I hail a Lyft or Uber - there is a sense that some level of responsibility has been lifted off my shoulders for: traffic, accidents, time, maintenenance, appearance.

Now am not saying I don't have to be aware or coordination is not needed. But geesh - it feels a lot less stressful.

 

[humbaba]

Official Moderator position: If the article is behind a subscription or a paywall, it's because they want to make money out of it. So posting all of the contents is a very clear copyright law violation, and exposes TMC to liability. Note that copyright law is not the same as plagiarism. Also the image was licensed, a second and separate copyright violation. I hope this is clear.

Oh, and edit: hiding it behind a spoiler tag doesn't stop it being a copyright violation.
-- ggr.

I admit I'm confused. I have used spoiler tags to help cut down on visual clutter. I've never used them, nor have I advocated their use, for copyright content.

What I do advocate for (and actually thought was the official position on this forum) is that providing commentary or synopsis along with a link to an article was preferred to just a link. When I do quote articles I use quote tags, not spoilers. I'm not trying to hide anything.

 

[Skryll]

And of course, real answer is I don't know anything more than anybody else - I haven't seen Tesla talking about their insurance product in any depth or meaning. Maybe because today it's still more of a POC product with immaterial impact on the quarterly financial statement.

I think its also a strategic product: If insurance companies play buddies with oil and gas and don't want to give reasonable quotes to Tesla owners, then Tesla can just cover them directly, cutting out yet another middleman. And the current launch in CA is probably a POC like you said, but IMHO its not just about a new profit center but also to reduce attack angles to their business model.

I noticed that if you price out geico vs tesla for me in CA, then it actually not cheaper with Tesla. Probably since the risk profile based on previous insurance use points against us

Personally the most excited I would be about Tesla to offer insurance and body shops as a direct feedback loop into lowering the cost of repairs by design of their vehicles. The P3D quarter panels are ridiculously labor intensive to replace. I have heard horror stories from credible people about the cost covered by the insurance.

 

[SageBrush]

Official Moderator position: If the article is behind a subscription or a paywall, it's because they want to make money out of it. So posting all of the contents is a very clear copyright law violation, and exposes TMC to liability. Note that copyright law is not the same as plagiarism. Also the image was licensed, a second and separate copyright violation. I hope this is clear.

Oh, and edit: hiding it behind a spoiler tag doesn't stop it being a copyright violation.
-- ggr.

Then is posting only a small part of the article kosher with proper attribution ? Say ... one image ?

I'm not trying to be argumentative or cute here, just wondering.

 

[JustMe]

Off topic ridiculous

Special bonus on that tweet. That Luis Cruthers teslaq guy is going on about the stolen material conspiracy at Freemont. Right. Elon is worth billions and has spent his time facilitating the theft of 37 million in copper wiring. F-ing morons.

The copper theft mystery has been solved:
Scott on Twitter

 

[ggr]

We're almost back to normal trading. TSLA's movements somewhat mirror the macros, and we are up a bit more than double the NASDAQ index. Volatility is way down. Despite my portfolio losing money due to calls going down with decreased volatility, I'm a happy camper.

 

[adiggs]

I think its also a strategic product: If insurance companies play buddies with oil and gas and don't want to give reasonable quotes to Tesla owners, then Tesla can just cover them directly, cutting out yet another middleman. And the current launch in CA is probably a POC like you said, but IMHO its not just about a new profit center but also to reduce attack angles to their business model.

I noticed that if you price out geico vs tesla for me in CA, then it actually not cheaper with Tesla. Probably since the risk profile based on previous insurance use points against us

Personally the most excited I would be about Tesla to offer insurance and body shops as a direct feedback loop into lowering the cost of repairs by design of their vehicles. The P3D quarter panels are ridiculously labor intensive to replace. I have heard horror stories from credible people about the cost covered by the insurance.

I think the strategic product point of view is particularly on point and well said. A friendly nudge if you will, or a potentially hostile threat, if the insurance companies don't innovate themselves.

My contribution is for anybody thinking of insurance industry type impacts on Tesla - my view of things is it's grossly premature. My own 10+ year valuation of Tesla has this at 0, not because I think it's valueless, but more because of your strategic product view. That's what I think it does for the company - helps show the way for other insurance companies how to take advantage of and price insurance for Tesla products.

Not because I think Elon's is going to start talking about the billions of dollars of float that Tesla now has available to invest on Tesla's behalf (as Warren talks about annually in the Letter to Shareholders).