Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EVMeister]

FWIW, there are 3 types of "average". (I think range is included as well but I don't see the point) Mean is the sum divided by total number, and can be thrown off by unusual distribution curves. Median is the "middle" number so it often ignores large outliers. Mode is the number with the highest count. (most common)

Take a set of 5, 10, 10, 12, and 30. Mean is 13.4. Mode is 10. Median is 11.

Wouldn't the median be 10?

 

[dw4ngg]

JP Morgan Chase increases TSLA holdings from 358,000 to 2,537,000 in latest filing.
JP Morgan Chase Analyst price target 240 SELL.

Link plss

 

[Paul8200]

I didn't know the Gigafactory in Nevada is set to be the largest building in the world
'The countryside is where the radical changes are': Rem Koolhaas goes rural

 

[Andy O]

Take a set of 5, 10, 10, 12, and 30. Mean is 13.4. Mode is 10. Median is 11.

No. Mean is 13.4, mode is 10, and median is 10 (not 11).

 

[geneclean55]

Link plss

JP Morgan Chase & Co reports 609.49% increase in ownership of TSLA / Tesla Motors, Inc. - 13F, 13D, 13G Filings - Fintel.io

 

[winfield100]

Going from options to just holding stock and LEAPs takes some psychological adjustment - that's what I've learned today.

The extreme volatility and amplified gains the last couple months have spoiled us......

I have to relearn to just hold again without trying to using ST options to play swings. Patience is a virtue, they say.

Also, I think it's time to treat myself to a gift. Is it blasphemy to use TSLA gains to buy my dream ICE weekend car (a 911 4S - I love driving manual)?… I will still be using a Model 3 as my daily

OT
@dw4ngg
6 Tesla’s roadsters on Carfax
Used Tesla Roadster for Sale (with Photos) - CARFAX

 

[SageBrush]

Wouldn't the median be 10?

Yep. I try to write 50th percentile when I am not lazy to avoid confusion

 

[lklundin]

Graph of cumulative quarterly deliveries since 2012.

The millionth delivery may take place sometime in March, Tesla should make a big deal out of it.

View attachment 510200

Thanks. A semi-logarithmic plot would be even more informative.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Elon is giving me a headache.
Has the April talk been rebranded "Tesla April Company Talk" to take the heat off battery announcements, or to hide the fireworks ?

He’s obviously trying to goose sales of the solar roof. So he gets everyone to watch it because we all really care about batteries, and while he has our attention, he’ll be selling us solar roof.

The original purpose of battery investor day was to help the stock price. That ... isn’t really needed anymore if you’ve noticed.

Elon might not even tell us too much about batteries anymore. Hard to say.

 

[Davidzhao365]

‪Made a back of the napkin bubble chart: X is the compound revenue growth in past 5 yr, Y is the gross margin, and bubble size is Price/Sales ratio in 12 month TTL. See #tsla in the right bottom. Source https://marketchameleon.com/Screeners/Stocks‬

Chat on twitter if this thread is too long
David Zhao (@davidzhao365) on Twitter

 

[KarenRei]

Right, but there is an 18 euro subscription fee every month and minimum contract term is 12 months. You are already paying 215 euro just for the privileged to be able to use Ionity chargers at 31 cents/kwh.

Tarife - Audi DE - DCS

That varies by the manufacturer; and in any case even at 18 Euro the breakeven is ~ 36 kWh a month usage.
The specifics vary, no doubt about it. I just prefer that we do not bandy about the worse case fee as if it applies universally.

The problem is that few people rarely either A) never drive long distances, or B) frequently drive long distances. It's usually somewhere in-between, but worse, it's fairly random in-between, where people don't know a year in advance how many km of long-distance trips they're going to be doing the subsequent year - leaving them to have to decide to pay €215 for something that they might never use, or to pay out the nose for charging.

And they sized it perfectly to maximize the pain of the choice - about 3000km of long-distance driving per year breakeven (well, at Tesla efficiencies, at least ). And let's not forget, even at the "breakeven point", you're still paying for both the subscription *and* the €0,30/kWh electricity. You only approach paying a legitimate €0,30/kWh if you drive vastly more than the breakeven point.

A side effect of this, BTW, will not just be annoyed people (either annoyed at how much they're having to pay at the charger, or annoyed at having to pay every month for something they didn't use). Everyone who decides not to use it will, due to the ridiculous charging prices, try to push longer distances to avoid having to stop. E.g., lower driving speeds, uncomfortable arrival SoCs, etc.

It's just a great way to make the overall experience more miserable.

 

[sundaymorning]

JP Morgan Chase increases TSLA holdings from 358,000 to 2,537,000 in latest filing.
JP Morgan Chase Analyst price target 240 SELL.

they tell us to sell so they can buy. Oldest trick ever.

 

[SageBrush]

they tell us to sell so they can buy. Oldest trick ever.

If the analyst and his bosses are concordant then I'd view the share acquisition as ammo for a bear raid.

 

[sundaymorning]

Markets may like this but if information on the virus.

Coronavirus expert says he knows when the virus 'will burn itself out,' according to leaked analysis

 

[pewpewpew]

If the analyst and his bosses are concordant then I'd view the share acquisition as ammo for a bear raid.

Not a finance guy... does this mean they acquired the shares on 12/31 and could they have been the ones responsible for the action around 970? @Fact Checking ?

 

[NakedLong]

IMHO, Ark Invest, Gali and similar commenters all seem to build their TSLA $7,000 thesis on autonomous related services. It seems to me, that the whole of Tesla's future growth and ability to fulfill its stated goal, is based on its ability to accelerate power storage capacity (Battery) production into the multiple terawatt territory. All of the other stories hang on this thread. Tesla Semi production has been pushed back for lack of capacity as stated during the Q4 call. Every other manufacturer/wanna be are starved of storage and while Solar roof closes the cosmetic issues associated with rooftop, PV and wind only work as a solution in combination with robust storage capacity. At the power wall roll out Elon talked about how much storage/renewable power it would take to power the world and he does so continuously always subtly, but always addressed.

We as investors, desperately need to insert ourselves into "Tesla April Company Talk" whether it's by portion questions (Think "SAY") to a known attendee or one of us attending otherwise we're stuck with the mostly ridiculously uninformed questions of a bunch of automotive analysts! In any case, IMO the trillion dollar value, much less "mission accomplished" ain't goin anywhere with out the power storage manufacturing capacity. This is what we need to know. The path to Terawatts of power storage. If that is clearly teased out of company talk day, IMO, alpha launch will be unstoppable.

Elon has stated over and over again that TE is where there is at least... at least, the FULL value of automotive. So many folks seem to be myopically focused on the autonomous mobility as the prime mover. IMO it is tangential to Tesla Energy which is the path to displacing the ENTIRE fossil fuel industry. Many words have been written here as to the immense daily net profits, never mind revenues, pulled in by this industry. Given a successful path to hundreds Terawatts per year, those kinds of revenues will belong to Tesla. Unlike the fossil fuel industry, Teslas costs are decreasing and even at lower margins, the scale of the commodity cells in combination with the high margin BMS/ distribution system will produce "gushers" of cash that will make ARAMCO look like a corner candy store business.

(and oh yea, we don't ruin the joint for ourselves and our offspring)

Fire Away!
(It's the batteries, Stupid!)

I have followed Elon, Tesla and SpaceX pretty closely since they were founded, and I have been thinking lately about how Elon would see the whole picture. Jim Keller was saying he broke problems down into what is possible from a physics point of view, and then worked backwards figuring out how to get there.

If we apply that to Tesla let's imagine what is the limit of physical possibilities, where Tesla is responsible for the lion's share of modernising these areas on a worldwide/solar system wide level, for the foreseeable future:

1) Electric transport
2) Energy creation and storage
3) Deliveries
4) Taxis
5) Public transport
4) Mining (via Boring Company)
5) Auto Insurance
6) Banking (I don't think he ever gave up on his x.com dream, though I doubt it will be via Tesla)

Now imagine Tesla has to get 80% of this done all by themselves - which is pretty much their current percentage of EV market share in the US. Elon might have a practical plan to get to 2 terawatts which he is willing to share, but I am sure he is thinking even bigger. He will be thinking about how to most quickly change the entire world to electric. Let's do some numbers:

Energy:
Global energy usage per year = 158,000 TWh
% of that which is not renewable = 51%
Global energy usage to be replaced with renewables = 81,000 TWh
Global energy usage per day = 222TWh
How much storage is needed for this? Maybe half? 111TWh
Let's say we need an annual capacity of new storage+generation of 11TWh

Passenger vehicles:
90 million per year
I read, 2TWh is enough for 26 million
So need about 7TWh total

Trucks:
4 million/year roughly worldwide (I think - I think this is across all classes of truck tho)
900kWh for semi, so lets say 600 average across all classes
so thats only 2.4TWh per year

Grand total about 20TWh needed per year

So you can see there is an order of magnitude difference between Elon's 2 TWh plan and what is actually needed. Feel free to point out any of my mistakes in my basic calculations... it could be as much as 200TWh - I don't have much confidence in my calcs.

If Elon can get to 2TWh, you can be sure he will quickly get to 20 in about the same time as it took to get from here to 2TWh. Let's say he can get to 2TWh in 10 years, then to get to 20 it will be 10 more years roughly, and after a decade of that production rate the whole world will be electric. So roughly 30 years from now, when Elon is 77 +/- 15 years. The timeframe for him getting to 2TWh is very interesting to me. Maybe he thinks he can get there in 5 years which would pretty much halve my guess of 30 years to 15 years.

TLDR; You need a 30 year investment timeframe to benefit from Elon's grand plan of an electric world.

 

[MC3OZ]

My wild speculation is there is a 3% or perhaps slighter better, chance that Supercharger V3 contains a Maxwell battery in each stall.
The purpose of that auxiliary battery is to act as a buffer to speed up charging... it is more relevant when the station is close to full.
Cell lines at Fremont would be for Plaid Model S/X which is expected by the end of the year...
Note: Even I don't assign a high probability to this guess, but it is a guess that stacks up on a few levels.

The main problem with the guess is the April timeline Supercharger V3 has been production has been in full swing for sometime.
So the April is for some other reason, perhaps ....

 

[azaz]

just went through the waiting room model 3 threads.....there are like all time long waits there

 

[The Martian]

JP Morgan Chase & Co reports 609.49% increase in ownership of TSLA / Tesla Motors, Inc. - 13F, 13D, 13G Filings - Fintel.io

JPMorgan analyst reiterated TSLA an Underweight rating and $200.00 price target on Oct 3rd, 2019 JPMorgan Reiterates Underweight Rating on Tesla (TSLA), Trims EPS Estimates for FY 2019 when TSLA is around $230. But it increased its TSLA holding from 357,666 shares as of November 12, 2019 to 2,537,599 shares as of December 31, 2019. How does this game work? The analyst gives Tesla a low rating so their firm can buy cheap shares? How is this even legal?

 

[Thekiwi]

Some quick back-of-the-napkin math using hopefully conservative assumptions to estimate what market cap and stock price we can expect from TSLA in 2020... took some #'s from Tesla earnings report (https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/b3cf7f5e-546a-4a65-9888-c928b914b529) to derive avg. sales price per vehicle of $54.5k -

54.5k x est. 500k vehicles delivered/sold => ~$27.250b revenues.. at 6% operating margin (which assumes about a 20% growth from 2019 due to increase efficiencies of Model Y and decreased costs from lessons learned) => ~$1.635b in operating profit....

Then, arbitrarily applying NFLX PE ratio of 90x to that $1.635b in profits... we get ~$147.15b market capitalization. That's about 5% more than the current ~$140b market cap based on today's closing price of 774.38/share (180.24m shares outstanding).

So, random ass guess FMV should be $813/share... let's go.

(edited for poor math)

(edit: also assuming no income taxes b/c of significant deferred tax assets in the form of NOLs)

(last edit: using an even more arbitrary 10x revenue valuation methodology, we can derive a $272.5b market cap which would yield an amazing $1,448.88/share target.. let's go w/ this one instead...)

Don’t use operating margin % for a calculation.

Tesla has massive amount of operational leverage (gross margin growth is basically decoupled from OpEx growth) that is going to launch the operational margin % to Max Q over the next 2 years. Look at anticipated Gross margin and then subtract relatively flat OpEX costs to get your operating profit. OI&E is also essentially flat (interest costs decreasing) so the gains from operating leverage will flow straight through to net income as well for the most part.