Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[CanadaEV]

Off the wall question: would you support a further $8B capital raise in the $800+ range?
Demand for it may be spurred in the midst of Battery Day reveal.
Rationale would be the (tacit) assumption of inevitable correction in the world economy.
In this scenario, growth capital spending may be accomplished at a steep discount, as unused supply/construction/labour capacity becomes available at cheaper prices. Regulatory headwinds may be reduced even further at locations that become hungry for scarce economic activity. The surplus available cash could compensate for an interim drop in consumer spending.
Coming out of a recession with 5X Giga capacity could advance the mission by years.

 

[Eugene Ash]

I look to sell trading shares and a call on Monday & Tuesday, rebut the call when it dips enough to take a decent profit, then reset another on Wednesday/Thursday for end of week, rebut stock on Friday low.

It's a fairly new thing for me, but so far working well.

It would as long as you predict where the big fish are moving

 

[Nocturnal]

You can call them lottery tickets, but you gotta play to win I sure did back at 200, the stock felt undervalued then but the outlook of the company was not nearly as bright as it is today. IMHO.
(The actual lottery is for the mathematically impaired, don't do it!)

I think that's an important bit that some don't notice. Sure my low 200 shares seem like a value now compared to $800 but as you said, Tesla was in fact shaky then. Even Elon mentioned this at the time and in retrospect several times. I think older investors are probably a little too conservative in advice to newer Tesla investors. "$800 is too high, wait for a dip." Well, $800 way up, but is it really a worse investment? (of course that conservative advice is probably a good counterweight to the new exuberance)

 

[Cherry Wine]

Random factoid: TSLA will have to close at $841.61 or above this week to hit 12 straight green weeks in a row. (It was green by $.03 last week.)

 

[SpaceCash]

Off the wall question: would you support a further $8B capital raise in the $800+ range?
Demand for it may be spurred in the midst of Battery Day reveal.
Rationale would be the (tacit) assumption of inevitable correction in the world economy.
In this scenario, growth capital spending may be accomplished at a steep discount, as unused supply/construction/labour capacity becomes available at cheaper prices. Regulatory headwinds may be reduced even further at locations that become hungry for scarce economic activity. The surplus available cash could compensate for an interim drop in consumer spending.
Coming out of a recession with 5X Giga capacity could advance the mission by years.

I used to be allergic to the idea of capital raises but at this price level I wouldn't mind this and might be very much FOR it. Fairly negligible dilution for a LOT of monetary clout with which to build gigafactories batteries and cybrtrks

 

[JRP3]

I see these batteries used in campers but so far you can’t charge them below freezing.

You can charge below freezing if you have a BMS which compensates by lowering the charging rate appropriately, though it may not allow fast enough charging to be practical for the application.
Another way is to preheat the battery before charging:

To solve the problem of charging and to make lithium-ion batteries safer and more practical for low-temperature use, RELiON has developed a new series of lithium iron phosphate batteries that can charge at temperatures down to -20°C (-4°F). The system features proprietary technology which draws power from the charger itself, requiring no additional components.

Introducing RELiON’s Low-Temperature Lithium Iron Phosphate Batteries
Tesla could wrap a coolant loop around the battery to keep it warm enough. Plus put it in a well insulated enclosure. Might not be worth it though.

 

[Rammstein]

Lottery winners and Tesla longs should be given mandatory financial management classes upon cashing out. The stats on lotto winners are horrible. Your risk of death skyrockets like a December 2019 TSLA call purchased in June 2019. Most of it seems to come from friends and family. People don't handle jealousy very well.

My family doesn't know what my investments are like. Pretty much only one childhood friend who is in my same economic bracket and who I trust knows my holdings and recent return history.

It’s amazing to me how often my friends ask me how much money I have in Tesla. I use to tell them and they would all tell me to sell saying I have to much exposed. Now since the run up I have decided not to tell them. If they ask I tell them I’m not disclosing that anymore. I think it’s rude for asking and can create a competition between friendships which I don’t think is healthy. Hopefully they don’t get me too drunk and ask me. What really sucks for them they have a friend screaming from the rooftops to buy Tesla stock. One friend use to laugh because I would tell him to buy Tesla stock and he’s like to you it’s always a good time to buy Tesla. He isn’t laughing now and I’m pretty sure he thinks it will drop. It’s hard to see through your bias.

 

[Ameliorate]

Spoiler: Offtopic personal wealth re-Rammstein

It’s amazing to me how often my friends ask me how much money I have in Tesla. I use to tell them and they would all tell me to sell saying I have to much exposed. Now since the run up I have decided not to tell them. If they ask I tell them I’m not disclosing that anymore. I think it’s rude asking and can create a competition between friendships which I don’t think is healthy. Hopefully they don’t get me too drunk and ask me. What really sucks for them they have a friend screaming from the rooftops to buy Tesla stock. One friend use to laugh because I would tell him to buy Tesla stock and he’s like to you it’s always a good time to buy Tesla. He isn’t laughing now and I’m pretty sure he thinks it will drop. It’s hard to see through your bias.

Yeah but, wont it be hard to hide a roadster eventually? Or do you keep the old beater and pollute your way to social events to maintain the masquerade. Never invite anyone to the new fully paid for home. Things I wonder for my future....

 

[Bet TSLA]

Random factoid: TSLA will have to close at $841.61 or above this week to hit 12 straight green weeks in a row. (It was green by $.03 last week.)

In what sense is closing at $748.07 on Friday, February 7; and closing at $800.03 on Friday, February 14 "green by $.03"? And what does $841.61 have to do with anything?

 

[dl003]

In what sense is closing at $748.07 on Friday, February 7; and closing at $800.03 on Friday, February 14 "green by $.03"? And what does $841.61 have to do with anything?

he meant Friday close > Monday open, not Friday close > previous Friday close.

 

[M3Rider]

I don't quite understand why people aren't willing to believe that when a company is growing 40-50% YoY, the stock wouldn't follow suit to some degree. Artificially holding the price back while the company wasn't profitable was much easier than it will be now. Everybody should be able to understand the growing revenues and profits year over year and it's pretty hard to sell the "everything they touch loses money" ideology.
If the market hums along as it has been, I don't see 2000 as unrealistic at all by June 2022. Maybe 4-5,000+ if we win the autonomy race.

If you want to factor in a deep recession, that's almost a separate issue from Tesla, but should definitely be considered as a possibility.
We could hit 1600 after the S&P500 inclusion, after battery day gets us much higher. WAG but that's only this summer(most likely).... q3 and q4 are usually the best. Look at what has happened with other large companies that were heavily shorted which then became profitable.

You can call them lottery tickets, but you gotta play to win I sure did back at 200, the stock felt undervalued then but the outlook of the company was not nearly as bright as it is today. IMHO.
(The actual lottery is for the mathematically impaired, don't do it!)

I am playing to win, 100% in TSLA.
Just trying to contain the risk to something I'm comfortable with.

At this point I'd say my retirement is secured and my calls in the play account (most of which I did not pay with my own money for) have grown to 2/3 of the account value. This call money will likely at least double by 2022 and will be used on Tesla products etc. as it's basically free and I have otherwise no immediate need for it.

We could hit 1600 as you say or 2000 as TT007 says, if so I will capture it with my DITM 2022 calls. Not feeling like I have to risk it all on 1600 strike. But may buy a couple of those if I have extra money I don't need.

 

[Cherry Wine]

In what sense is closing at $748.07 on Friday, February 7; and closing at $800.03 on Friday, February 14 "green by $.03"? And what does $841.61 have to do with anything?

he meant Friday close > Monday open, not Friday close > previous Friday close.

Yes -- I'm looking at a weekly chart. M-F open to close (or T-F as is the case this week). So in answer to your first question, @Bet TSLA, in no sense is the difference between those two numbers $.03. In answer to your second, this week's opening price was $841.60.

 

[jerry33]

Do I count as an algobot?

Don't know, but I'll start you off. One, Two, Three.

 

[VQTRVA]

Question: did the $2B secondary offering @$767/shr go to market yet?

 

[Rammstein]

Spoiler: Offtopic personal wealth re-Rammstein

Yeah but, wont it be hard to hide a roadster eventually? Or do you keep the old beater and pollute your way to social events to maintain the masquerade. Never invite anyone to the new fully paid for home. Things I wonder for my future....

Haha nope. I have a P3D. I got laid off 4 months ago with a big package. Put some of that in Tesla and some of my tied up retirement account. Got a Cybertruck on order. Being laid off has been the best thing for me financially. Going to start Uber driving soon cause I love driving my car, I’m bored, nice side money (Uber black plus free supercharging), and I like talking to people. I’ll let you all know how the Uber driving goes.

 

[Ameliorate]

I am playing to win, 100% in TSLA.
Just trying to contain the risk to something I'm comfortable with.

At this point I'd say my retirement is secured and my calls in the play account (most of which I did not pay with my own money for) have grown to 2/3 of the account value. This call money will likely at least double by 2022 and will be used on Tesla products etc. as it's basically free and I have otherwise no immediate need for it.

We could hit 1600 as you say or 2000 as TT007 says, if so I will capture it with my DITM 2022 calls. Not feeling like I have to risk it all on 1600 strike. But may buy a couple of those if I have extra money I don't need.

Absolutely! and I wasn't calling you out, your post just reminded me; I've heard many times especially from family wanting to cash in on their shares I advised them to buy @ 500 because they're "high" . I would certainly not recommend going all in on 1600's. But I would be open to the idea of the SP moving up as the company grows! Over time Doesn't all have to be tonight.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Haha nope. I have a P3D. I got laid off 4 months ago with a big package. Put some of that in Tesla and some of my tied up retirement account. Got a Cybertruck on order. Being laid off has been the best thing for me financially. Going to start ...

You may want to review the TOU around free supercharging and ride-sharing, then you may want to edit this post afterward (should you ever need to make a warranty claim).

Privacy & Legal | Tesla

 

[Paracelsus]

CNBC - 2 hours ago:

Thank you for posting this, Curt. I very much enjoy Cathy/ARK receiving the accolades they well deserve for their valuation of Tesla Motors when almost every other analyst has failed to see the larger picture for Tesla Motors.......... But I must add that I am becoming increasingly frustrated that Cathy/ARK still to this day fail to include any valuation for Tesla Energy, even though TSLA is comprised of both Tesla Motors (TM) and Tesla Energy (TE). Perhaps this is both good and bad?

I mention this because many of us here are already convinced that the valuation of Tesla Energy will equal-or-exceed that of Tesla Motors in the coming decade, and likely sooner. Battery Investor Day and a path towards 2 Terawatt-hours of storage production should help shine a huge light on the path to accelerate the value of TE under the TSLA umbrella of TSLA = TE + TM. The Hornsdale Battery project success has awakened the world to this potential, and Tesla's cost/kWh for battery production will ensure that their 'Demand Problem' is that the Demand is almost limitless as the Grid Paradigm shifts rapidly and that they cannot produce enough commercial-scale battery storage to fulfill this worldwide grid demand regardless of how fast they can ramp over the next decade IMO. The Grid paradigm shift is Now, and as with EV's, only Tesla is poised to address a large portion of the demand to transition all peaker-plants to battery storage. @jbcarioca has written along these lines in the past on TMC, and I am in full agreement.

So how is it both 'good and bad' that Cathy/ARK fail to include TE in their valuation of TSLA? Given that their $4,000 valuation blew everyone's minds until the China GF came on line and the 2019Q4 earnings were posted, it seems WS is now scrambling to make TSLA a reasonable % of their holdings prior to SP500 inclusion while Cathy/ARK have charged ahead to a $7,000 price tag. And they are doing so while commanding some long-overdue respect for their foresight and the accuracy of their homework. Had Cathy/ARK included a value for TE = TM, their valuations would have simply doubled without WS or any MSM talking heads having any idea how to internalize this TE data. So had Cathy/ARK given an $8,000 valuation first, and then adjusted that to $14,000 in their most recent guidance, they may have undermined their ability to gain/grow respect among peers, even though IMO their valuations would have been more accurate.

Following Tesla's upcoming Battery Investor Day however, a fair valuation for TE must be included in the TSLA = TM + TE by Cathy/ARK. And that valuation for TE should be at-or-near the valuation for TM (vehicles, software, autonomous driving, etc). ARK will be very busy soon if they are to stay relevant with their valuation for the full suite of Tesla products and services. And should they finally move beyond the lens of TM-only.........well then, stand by...........because the results will once again shock Wall Street and the Main Stream Media.

 

[vikings123]

Other than the significant gap up pre-market, this almost feels like options Friday. It's good to see the SP stabilizing around the 850 level.

 

[Ameliorate]

Thank you for posting this, Curt. I very much enjoy Cathy/ARK receiving the accolades they well deserve for their valuation of Tesla Motors when almost every other analyst has failed to see the larger picture for Tesla Motors.......... But I must add that I am becoming increasingly frustrated that Cathy/ARK still to this day fail to include any valuation for Tesla Energy, even though TSLA is comprised of both Tesla Motors (TM) and Tesla Energy (TE). Perhaps this is both good and bad?

I mention this because many of us here are already convinced that the valuation of Tesla Energy will equal-or-exceed that of Tesla Motors in the coming decade, and likely sooner. Battery Investor Day and a path towards 2 Terawatt-hours of storage production should help shine a huge light on the path to accelerate the value of TE under the TSLA umbrella of TSLA = TE + TM. The Hornsdale Battery project success has awakened the world to this potential, and Tesla's cost/kWh for battery production will ensure that their 'Demand Problem' is that the Demand is almost limitless as the Grid Paradigm shifts rapidly and that they cannot produce enough commercial-scale battery storage to fulfill this worldwide grid demand regardless of how fast they can ramp over the next decade IMO. The Grid paradigm shift is Now, and as with EV's, only Tesla is poised to address a large portion of the demand to transition all peaker-plants to battery storage. @jbcarioca has written along these lines in the past on TMC, and I am in full agreement.

So how is it both 'good and bad' that Cathy/ARK fail to include TE in their valuation of TSLA? Given that their $4,000 valuation blew everyone's minds until the China GF came on line and the 2019Q4 earnings were posted, it seems WS is now scrambling to make TSLA a reasonable % of their holdings prior to SP500 inclusion while Cathy/ARK have charged ahead to a $7,000 price tag. And they are doing so while commanding some long-overdue respect for their foresight and the accuracy of their homework. Had Cathy/ARK included a value for TE = TM, their valuations would have simply doubled without WS or any MSM talking heads having any idea how to internalize this TE data. So had Cathy/ARK given an $8,000 valuation first, and then adjusted that to $14,000 in their most recent guidance, they may have undermined their ability to gain/grow respect among peers, even though IMO their valuations would have been more accurate.

Following Tesla's upcoming Battery Investor Day however, a fair valuation for TE must be included in the TSLA = TM + TE by Cathy/ARK. And that valuation for TE should be at-or-near the valuation for TM (vehicles, software, autonomous driving, etc). ARK will be very busy soon if they are to stay relevant with their valuation for the full suite of Tesla products and services. And should they finally move beyond the lens of TM-only.........well then, stand by...........because the results will once again shock Wall Street and the Main Stream Media.

Yeah... I really hope this is brought to the forefront around battery day. That video is a must watch.
In the time it takes to build a traditional peaker plant, the tesla battery grid has already paid for itself twice......it's disgusting how badly it beats the old tech. They could improve margins by vast amounts now that projects like the grid in Australia are proving the effectiveness. Sad part is that's with the old battery tech. Newer iterations will only be better.....

Edit, excerpts from the video, 67M to build TSLA plant, 3 months to construct. 700M for avg peaker at 6-7 years. TSLA grid saved nearly 67M in fees that a peaker plant would've charged in 2 years. so my mistake, sorry its paid for itself 3x+ before a peaker is built.