Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Silentk]

So had Cathy/ARK given an $8,000 valuation first, and then adjusted that to $14,000 in their most recent guidance, they may have undermined their ability to gain/grow respect among peers, even though IMO their valuations would have been more accurate.]

Have been wondering the same thing, and agree with you that the numbers including Tesla Energy would have been seen as so ridiculous she would have lost credibility. As it is they were deemed laughable - but at least she was invited on to discuss them.

Now that Ark has new-found respect I would expect them to start gently adding TE into their new forecasts.

If you are reading the forum Cathie - enormously grateful to you and your team.

 

[Artful Dodger]

But I must add that I am becoming increasingly frustrated that Cathy/ARK still to this day fail to include any valuation for Tesla Energy

DUDE! Why get frustrated? Their spreadsheet is available to the public for free. Download a copy and include your valuation for TE. Then start a $100M/yr ETF business to promote your version of the future...

But seriously, Cathie has already explained why ARK Invest does not include TE in their model: its because nobody else is modeling either, and they don't want the ARK Invest model to be panned as 'apples to oranges' because its the only one that includes TE.

It's not because they can not value TE. They have the technology.

HTH.

Cheers!

 

[Pezpunk]

As was discussed here, Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley thinks the current quarter (2020Q1) will show a loss for Tesla of $440 Million (I assume that's GAAP) on delivering only 89K cars in the quarter.

This doesn't feel right to me, but I'd like some data. According to the slide presentation on 2019Q4 results, Fremont is already at a combined 490K per year production rate (Models S, X, and 3). So, even if Shanghai were to be completely shut down this quarter, that would still be 122K cars produced in the quarter just from Fremont. And even with seasonal demand issues, there should still be enough in US and Europe to buy all those produced.

Throw in the potential for FCA Europe clean-air credits and I don't see how Tesla isn't profitable in 2020Q1.

Can anyone shed additional light - pro or con?

[Edited to get quarters right]

Adam Jonas is a dingaling.

But when Elon and Tesla's top accountant both express doubt that a quarter will be profitable, I believe them.

At the end of 2019, Tesla was delivering EVERY car they could find. They emptied both barrels to meet the lower bounds of their guidance. During Q1 they are going to have to restock inventories and reload transit routes to some extent, so I expect lower deliveries even if production is a new record.

Add to that several weeks of downtime in China (and counting on their sustained rate not really being near what they are saying their peak was), I think the quarter got even more challenging than Elon and Zach anticipated.

I do not expect profitability in Q1, nor do i expect record deliveries. (i do expect record production, and a return to profitability in Q2)

 

[dakh]

Can someone elaborate on the "wall of worry" and how it is related to buy/sell ratio on the stock from Cathie Woods' CNBC appearance? I maybe grasp the wall of worry concept but not the relation to sell/buy ratio. TIA!

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Hate it for him.

 

[Cosmacelf]

This looks suspiciously like a mini pump and dump into tomorrow.

I doubt it, but we'll see tomorrow.

Here's what I've observed over many years investing in growth stocks.

There are lots of institutional investors that have never heard about, or at the very least, haven't looked into any one particular stock. What I've noticed in the past is that when a small public company attends investor conferences and gives a powerpoint talk about their growth prospects, it often takes about 2 weeks for the stock to react, assuming the company is indeed an attractive investment opportunity. Why 2 weeks? Because that's how long it takes an institutional investor (or a bunch of them actually) to do their due diligence and slowly put in buy orders (for a small stock, they have to buy over many days). Retail investors tend to buy a stock after listening to their brother in law give a five minute pitch, but surprisingly institutional investors do more homework.

So for Tesla, it is likely that there are a bunch of institutions that had never even thought of investing in Tesla, but are now doing real due diligence for the first time on the company, and some of them are buying. They are finally looking at Tesla because of the quarterly results, the stock price jump and the offering.

 

[wipster]

Heck yeah, poppin to a new day high at close I love this game I'm so good

You are? My total gain for TSLA closed at 1,950% today, all long term... hoping for 2,000 this week. And yes, it's because I'm so good at the game... NOT. It's because I believe in Tesla and didn't sell when we hit bottom last summer, mainly because I couldn't afford to.

And all my relatives want to know to whom I'm leaving my portfolio... luckily none of them live close or have firearms /s

 

[jerry33]

However, they don't know where you don't go because of there not being sufficient charging availability. In the midwest this remains a difficulty. While I haven't had a problem reaching any of my destinations it has been close at times, required significantly out of the way side trips, and has made it quite apparent that there are places I cannot go and trips I cannot do.

I haven't found any trips you absolutely can't do--we did them before there were any SCs outside of CA. However, they are less convenient without proper planning. RV parks are in a lot of places that are SC deserts.

 

[dl003]

Hate it for him.

Didn't he lose this job a while a go before opening an *analytic* firm under his own name?
GLJ Research

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Didn't he lose this job a while a go before opening an *analytic* firm under his own name?
GLJ Research

They mention that in the video.

Dan

 

[Nocturnal]

I do not expect profitability in Q1, nor do i expect record deliveries. (i do expect record production, and a return to profitability in Q2)

I have my doubts for sure. What I'm less sure of is how much it Wall Street will ding the stock price for that.

 

[dl003]

They mention that in the video.

Dan

Sounds like a shell company funded by *wink* *wink* operating with the sole purpose of spreading TSLA FUD.

 

[BenPrice]

As was discussed here, Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley thinks the current quarter (2020Q1) will show a loss for Tesla of $440 Million (I assume that's GAAP) on delivering only 89K cars in the quarter.

This doesn't feel right to me, but I'd like some data. According to the slide presentation on 2019Q4 results, Fremont is already at a combined 490K per year production rate (Models S, X, and 3). So, even if Shanghai were to be completely shut down this quarter, that would still be 122K cars produced in the quarter just from Fremont. And even with seasonal demand issues, there should still be enough in US and Europe to buy all those produced.

Throw in the potential for FCA Europe clean-air credits and I don't see how Tesla isn't profitable in 2020Q1.

Can anyone shed additional light - pro or con?

[Edited to get quarters right]

I personally do not disagree with the guidance and meets my expectations.

I think that Seasonality trends will continue and that the chinaflu will slow sales a tad. Neither “negatives” matter in the long run whatsoever.

I’m interested in S/X sales and energy sales, and short term, how many model y can be made here in the next 9 months. If we see strength there I don’t care about any other results, including financial. Seasonality is, and chinaflu is messing up logistics.

 

[Krugerrand]

My last thought on advertisement is this.

Promise?

 

[canoemore]

Hey, check out Tesla's Giga Factory Berlin webpage:

"Phase 1 will focus on production of Model Y, with a target capacity of 10,000 vehicles per week."​

Did we already know that?

 

[SpaceCash]

You are? My total gain for TSLA closed at 1,950% today, all long term... hoping for 2,000 this week. And yes, it's because I'm so good at the game... NOT. It's because I believe in Tesla and didn't sell when we hit bottom last summer, mainly because I couldn't afford to.

And all my relatives want to know to whom I'm leaving my portfolio... luckily none of them live close or have firearms /s

As of now I've turned ~10 grand into ~90 grand in ~9 months, and one year ago today I was broke living in a hostel run by gangbangers in L.A. so I'm feeling pretty smug.

But of course all due credit to Elon & Tesla DUH!

Seriously cheers to all. Sorry this is pretty OT but ya know...

 

[Krugerrand]

I remember my mind was blown seeing the first iPhone on TV, not via press conference. Going back to watch Steve's press conference, his demonstration is definitely not as magical like how you saw it on TV.

When you have unbelievable technology, visually showing people who doesn't have a cousin who bought a Tesla gets you to into the store and the rest is history. Tesla cars are not traditional cars. Most cars just show how it drives down some back road and some shots of the interior. They are all forgettable.

The Chinese Commercial of people playing online Chess zoomed out as a youtube video, zoomed out as you are playing Chess, and zoomed out that it's in your car..this clip would be as mind blowing as when I saw pinch to zoom for the first time on TV. How many people think saw this Tesla ad hidden on the internet?

Don't forget a television ad like the one Tesla put out for the Chinese market is better produced and holds people interest better than any 25 min car review online. Just a 30 second clip of "let me blow your mind with this car" and then shows the price will have people storm into Tesla stores after the Super Bowl. Perhaps after Tesla can pump out 2+ millions a year they can start advertising with these slick videos.

Apparently not.

 

[CorneliusXX]

As was discussed here, Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley thinks the current quarter (2020Q1) will show a loss for Tesla of $440 Million (I assume that's GAAP) on delivering only 89K cars in the quarter.

This doesn't feel right to me, but I'd like some data. According to the slide presentation on 2019Q4 results, Fremont is already at a combined 490K per year production rate (Models S, X, and 3). So, even if Shanghai were to be completely shut down this quarter, that would still be 122K cars produced in the quarter just from Fremont. And even with seasonal demand issues, there should still be enough in US and Europe to buy all those produced.

Throw in the potential for FCA Europe clean-air credits and I don't see how Tesla isn't profitable in 2020Q1.

Can anyone shed additional light - pro or con?

[Edited to get quarters right]

You can't expect Fremont production to be linear this year as the Y is ramping - so 122k should not be your base case for Q1. It's more likely to be a few k higher than last quarter and dramatically higher in Q4 20.

 

[BenPrice]

As of now I've turned ~10 grand into ~90 grand in ~9 months, and one year ago today I was broke living in a hostel run by gangbangers in L.A. so I'm feeling pretty smug.

But of course all due credit to Elon & Tesla DUH!

Seriously cheers to all. Sorry this is pretty OT but ya know...

Cheers!

 

[dw4ngg]

As of now I've turned ~10 grand into ~90 grand in ~9 months, and one year ago today I was broke living in a hostel run by gangbangers in L.A. so I'm feeling pretty smug.

But of course all due credit to Elon & Tesla DUH!

Seriously cheers to all. Sorry this is pretty OT but ya know...

I think we need a thread dedicated to humble-brags

I yolo-ed this weekend and got myself a used 911 stick shift... loving it. but my Tesla is obv more comfy.