j6Lpi429@3j
Closed
I've read a whole book about this guy (I mentioned it a few weeks back). He is the real deal. I'm very pleased he sees teslas potential. People could do very well merely copying what this guy does.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
I've read a whole book about this guy (I mentioned it a few weeks back). He is the real deal. I'm very pleased he sees teslas potential. People could do very well merely copying what this guy does.
Krugerrand
Meow
Just go with it. Spread it around. Hold your shares. Advice.
smorgasbord
Active Member
I agree in the long term. The issue I'm thinking about is that IF 2020Q1 isn't GAAP profitable, then we have a 1-year reset on TSLA joining the S&P 500. That will take some of the steam out of the current rally, and may even provide buying opportunities.
With any luck we may even deliver nearly 75,000 cars this quarter! Man that would sure be something... A guy can dream
I've attended well over 150 events. Now a few were EV or Green events so those you can call selection bias, but the majority were car shows where I was either the only (usually) or one of a few EVs. I have yet to hear that attitude come up from anyone I spoke to. The only way to overcome the negativity is to get them in the car, if possible take them for a ride, and relate your experiences. Advertising just won't do that. Most people have one of the following "how far does it go", "how long does it take to charge", "can't buy without going to another state", "too expensive". All the stuff we worry about here is only pertinent to a small set of people who follow stocks and financial types. (Most people's idea of stocks is what their employer makes them have in their 401K.) Advertising won't do that because people in general don't believe advertising. Talking to real owners does--particularly high mileage owners.
I think he’s way off on losses but I doubt there will be many more than 90 to 95 K sold. January was VERY SLOW for deliveries anywhere. Canada was super slow as there were no cars available. I think the US was similar. Obviously Europe was dead. No inventories and everything in Transit.
Having said that 1st quarter over 1st quarter should be an improvement and credit sales should take up a lot of slack. I don’t see a disaster but the media won’t see it that way. Elon was very clear in that first quarter would be very tough. Have some faith and you’ll be fine. But I suspect there will be a buying opportunity courtesy of the media.
I don't want to sound like your dad, but I do hope you've locked away enough cash to pay tax on your trades and to have a fully funded 6 month emergency fund in cash.
We all expect Tesla to succeed wildly, but we don't know what will happen tomorrow and this bull run is already long in the tooth.
Everyone feels like an investing jenius when their bet goes through the roof, but the market has a "wonderful" way of reminding you that luck plays a big part in any result.
The requirement is GAAP profit for the total of past 4 quarters and GAAP profit for the last quarter. There's no "1-year reset"
When people on this board are predicting an upcoming buying opportunity, that tends to make me think we're gonna blow through 1100 before a real retracement.
But! In the interest of full disclosure, today marks the first time during this venture that I have gone fully off of margin and have actually left some powder on the table.
But! In the interest of full disclosure, today marks the first time during this venture that I have gone fully off of margin and have actually left some powder on the table.
Remember it’s all numbers until you sell (and pay the tax man).
This is pretty much it. Tesla could also solve the problem with more Superchargers, but because there are no grey dots on the FindUs page in the SC deserts, it doesn't appear they will do anything anytime in the near future, so the only alternative is long range. I have the Tri-Cybertruck on order just because of that. I'd really rather have the dual motor with 500+ miles.
smorgasbord
Active Member
If 2020Q1 is NOT GAAP profitable, then we'll need 4 new consecutive quarters of GAAP profit to make the S&P 500. Effectively, that's a one year reset. Actually, more than a year given 2020Q1 isn't over yet.
Then you are deceiving yourself - and potentially others.
It is only meaningful to analyze time periods for trading if you also include the time when the markets are closed (in your part of the world). This is so because market moving events often occur exactly when the markets are closed, such as when Tesla publishes quarterly results.
If you want to look at weekly developments then Friday's close makes sense (since this price point is used for settling options contracts). A week is then from one Friday's close to the next Friday's close.(*) But in principle, you could also go from one Monday's open to the next Monday's open. Just make sure to clearly state any non-obvious assumptions.
PS. (*) Or better, a week is from the close of the last trading day in one week to the close of the last trading day of the next week, to handle Fridays with limited or no trading. PPS. Or maybe not...
Last edited:
Dude, that was BAF. Ballsy as f***. Props to you for the conviction and for improving your living situation.
For sure.
I’ve looked at that scenario the same way for 3 years.
Until Tesla energy ramps to revenue levels that smooth the cyclical nature of the automotive industry, it will not likely meet S&P requirements.
That’s just how I’ve felt about it and am playing it. It’s just not prudent to both grow at the levels Tesla is growing in automotive and also qualify for S&P.
And that’s why energy growth is more important to me than many other indicators.
That all being said, the first pile of model Ys will drastically push up revenue (2018 Q4 asp bump), so if we can get that meaningfully in 2020 I’m happy.
For the record, I think it’s a GOOD thing S&P requirements are not met. Automotive growth at 30%+ yoy for many years has substantial cost. Groooooooow.
Last edited:
JusRelax
Active Member
This is incorrect. It is the sum of the past 4 quarters:
https://us.spindices.com/documents/methodologies/methodology-sp-us-indices.pdf
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
While we're OT bragging.....
SP $1,700 is gonna be a tough day for me. Knowing I could have easily been up 100x and for some psychotic reason am only up ~4x. What kind of lunatic knows for certain TSLA will be dominant from before day 1, yet doesn't build a position until some deep-in-the-hole SCTY shares convert......as tons of worthless SCTY LEAPs flutter away in the breeze.
Ah well, hopefully I'll wear it with pride some day. Many good lessons learned and I'll ride this to 1/3 of a rational retirement fund.
Seriously....f*** off with your 20x stories!
SP $1,700 is gonna be a tough day for me. Knowing I could have easily been up 100x and for some psychotic reason am only up ~4x. What kind of lunatic knows for certain TSLA will be dominant from before day 1, yet doesn't build a position until some deep-in-the-hole SCTY shares convert......as tons of worthless SCTY LEAPs flutter away in the breeze.
Ah well, hopefully I'll wear it with pride some day. Many good lessons learned and I'll ride this to 1/3 of a rational retirement fund.
Seriously....f*** off with your 20x stories!
Krugerrand
Meow
Seriously....f*** off with your 20x stories!
So, you don’t want to hear I had the 30 bagger for a split second at ATH? Ok, fair enough.
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
- Locked
