Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[lklundin]

Btw, I believe TSLA just had its second highest EOD.

 

[BenPrice]

I can’t be on this forum too much or I’ll yolo half a million in options.

Love you all.

One of my best memories from the past 90 days was when we all bought shares at 420.69 and, lol, I remember at the time I was like...meh I don’t really want to buy this share.

Now it’s up 100 sugar percent. Rofl.

 

[ggr]

Have been wondering the same thing, and agree with you that the numbers including Tesla Energy would have been seen as so ridiculous she would have lost credibility. As it is they were deemed laughable - but at least she was invited on to discuss them.

Now that Ark has new-found respect I would expect them to start gently adding TE into their new forecasts.

If you are reading the forum Cathie - enormously grateful to you and your team.

Cathie has mentioned a number of times that they actually have three of their analysts reviewing Tesla; one for the car, one for the energy, and one for the autonomous driving. Maybe she should think of it as three companies, and allow up to 10% holding in each.

 

[generalenthu]

Incredibly weird trading today. Stock is up about 60 points and the open interest I have been tracking indicates the option sellers, i.e. market makers for the most part, need to buy a little over 6 million shares to remain hedged.

The actual trading volume per my broker (IB) is an average level of 16 million shares. it is not possible to buy 6 million shares with a total traded volume of 16 million. by my estimates they need to have about a 4x volume day (24 million) to absorb the magnitude of the move. My guess is the market makers closed the books for today net short by about ~2 Million shares or so. They may have to acquire this tomorrow or pretty soon, and this could snowball. @ReflexFunds may be able to confirm this or have more to say.

Clearly I am not surprised by the AH creep up and would expect this to continue into tomorrow.

 

[rsm287]

Have been wondering the same thing, and agree with you that the numbers including Tesla Energy would have been seen as so ridiculous she would have lost credibility. As it is they were deemed laughable - but at least she was invited on to discuss them.

Now that Ark has new-found respect I would expect them to start gently adding TE into their new forecasts.

If you are reading the forum Cathie - enormously grateful to you and your team.

It looks to me like they have been giving TE some thought:

The Addressable Market for Utility Energy Storage Could Scale to $800 Billion

When/if they will include this research in their price target is another question.

 

[azaz]

would announcement of the secondary offering being potentially oversubscribed and closed come tomorrow morning? I believe Feb 19 was the date mentioned in the last filing

 

[larmor]

tw

Cathie has mentioned a number of times that they actually have three of their analysts reviewing Tesla; one for the car, one for the energy, and one for the autonomous driving. Maybe she should think of it as three companies, and allow up to 10% holding in each.

They should get another analyst for wireless energy transmission-- i'm not giving up on my tinfoil hat.... I just can't believe they are launching 100s of satellites in space (not cheap) to just provide access to fb and instagram likes to the world.

 

[ggr]

I agree in the long term. The issue I'm thinking about is that IF 2020Q1 isn't GAAP profitable, then we have a 1-year reset on TSLA joining the S&P 500. That will take some of the steam out of the current rally, and may even provide buying opportunities.

Why do you say that? It isn't correct. It would require a very strong Q2, or sum of Q2+Q3, but there is no automatic reset.

 

[jerry33]

tw

They should get another analyst for wireless energy transmission-- i'm not giving up on my tinfoil hat.... I just can't believe they are launching 100s of satellites in space (not cheap) to just provide access to fb and instagram likes to the world.

There's also YouTube and Amazon.

 

[SageBrush]

I tried before in the advanced options thread. With charts and everything. Then people tells me my charts looks like rainbows and unicorn. I've since given up as I realize that it will probably take a book to properly explain.

Thanks -- I'll look for it

 

[Yamantasdivar]

If you were standing next to Bill Gates, and he told you that he just bought a Taycan, what would you say to him?

 

[BenPrice]

Incredibly weird trading today. Stock is up about 60 points and the open interest I have been tracking indicates the option sellers, i.e. market makers for the most part, need to buy a little over 6 million shares to remain hedged.

The actual trading volume per my broker (IB) is an average level of 16 million shares. it is not possible to buy 6 million shares with a total traded volume of 16 million. by my estimates they need to have about a 4x volume day (24 million) to absorb the magnitude of the move. My guess is the market makers closed the books for today net short by about ~2 Million shares or so. They may have to acquire this tomorrow or pretty soon, and this could snowball. @ReflexFunds may be able to confirm this or have more to say.

Clearly I am not surprised by the AH creep up and would expect this to continue into tomorrow.

I was expecting a huuuuge smack down at close, and held everything because it didn’t come, and I’m glad you posted, because it reverberates my thoughts.

Maybe the hope was/is to avoid it. It being the excessive demand blowing up the options market.

But now the spring is compressed, and it should be positive reinforcing.

 

[Krugerrand]

If you were standing next to Bill Gates, and he told you that he just bought a Taycan, what would you say to him?

 

[dw4ngg]

I don't want to sound like your dad, but I do hope you've locked away enough cash to pay tax on your trades and to have a fully funded 6 month emergency fund in cash.

We all expect Tesla to succeed wildly, but we don't know what will happen tomorrow and this bull run is already long in the tooth.

Everyone feels like an investing jenius when their bet goes through the roof, but the market has a "wonderful" way of reminding you that luck plays a big part in any result.

We need more of these types of posts... keep them coming. There have been lots of stocks moving like TSLA recently as well, i.e. SPCE, SHOP... so we're definitely not geniuses, and also benefitting from this nice broader market bull run.

 

[Christine69420]

If you were standing next to Bill Gates, and he told you that he just bought a Taycan, what would you say to him?

Nice! Can we go for a spin?

 

[dl003]

If you were standing next to Bill Gates, and he told you that he just bought a Taycan, what would you say to him?

Bill, I forgave you for that dancing that one time but you went too far this time.

 

[smorgasbord]

This is incorrect. It is the sum of the past 4 quarters:

thanks for the correction.

 

[Singer3000]

Did I fall asleep and wake up in 2018? Why oh why is there still debate on this thread about S&P admission criteria?

 

[Prunesquallor]

Yeah... I really hope this is brought to the forefront around battery day. That video is a must watch.
In the time it takes to build a traditional peaker plant, the tesla battery grid has already paid for itself twice......it's disgusting how badly it beats the old tech. They could improve margins by vast amounts now that projects like the grid in Australia are proving the effectiveness. Sad part is that's with the old battery tech. Newer iterations will only be better.....

Edit, excerpts from the video, 67M to build TSLA plant, 3 months to construct. 700M for avg peaker at 6-7 years. TSLA grid saved nearly 67M in fees that a peaker plant would've charged in 2 years. so my mistake, sorry its paid for itself 3x+ before a peaker is built.

This is s year-old article,
Another Texas power plant is mothballed, raising concerns over reserves and prices

but I love this quote:

“In recent years, however, additional supplies from other sources, particularly wind, have moderated the summer price spikes that made it worth the cost of keeping peaker plants ready to go into operation. Peaker plants now face the growing likelihood that they may never be called upon to produce power, even as they maintain and staff them.”

 

[Bet TSLA]

The only way to overcome the negativity is to get them in the car, if possible take them for a ride, and relate your experiences.

I've found that taking people for a ride in the car is relatively useless compared to letting them drive the car. Hundreds of people have driven mine, often with friends / relatives / kids riding in back. If you want to win people over you have to up your game.