Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[sundaymorning]

This should be good for China and markets around the world:

UT researchers make 'critical breakthrough' in coronavirus vaccine

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Being direct > Belgium > Beer, waffles > Obesity

It's astonishing how quickly discussions can derail in this thread. Stubborn bunch. Several posts about obesity were removed and so will any more on the four subjects above.

 

[SMAlset]

Cramer is talking Tesla and maybe taking some money off the table. Think it was just a quick little talk to his listeners at the very beginning.

Had been listening to Fast Money and only until end of show did Tesla come up. What did they say, "I have no idea how to trade this".

 

[Krugerrand]

such a nonsensical baseless reply it doesn't even deserve a response —

— and yet

 

[ZeApelido]

New Model S battery should have what, ~9% more range?

100% chance rated range gets listed at 420.

 

[Krugerrand]

Sounds like a bad deal. Elon said a ticket to Mars will be the price of a house. So, comparable.

Yes, I believe he said sell your house and other assets for 500,000 would get you a ticket to Mars. That’s a deal.

 

[Fobble]

Cramer is talking Tesla and maybe taking some money off the table. Think it was just a quick little talk to his listeners at the very beginning.

Had been listening to Fast Money and only until end of show did Tesla come up. What did they say, "I have no idea how to trade this".

His target is Tesla market cap to be double of GM+Ford combined. I am not sure how he came up with the number. Guesstimate, may I say?

 

[ammulder]

Right. Because human drivers use smell, sound and touch to determine appropriate speeds! Sight alone just won't work.

You left out "brains". I've noticed many times that Autopilot would benefit from knowing what area it's in, or remembering what it's seen there before. As a for instance:

• Driving in the right lane on a highway. The lane starts to widen on the right because there's an off-ramp coming and the existing lane widens to the right until it's wide enough (double-wide or nearly so) for the lane lines to start and distinguish the new exit lane. My Model 3 notices the lane widening and drifts to the right to stay more centered, and then has to jerk back to the left when it sees the new lane line start and it's driving right toward the middle of the two lanes. That's stupid -- it should know from map/GPS that there's an exit lane coming up imminently, and therefore that the right-most travel lane widening to the right must be in preparation for that new exit lane, and therefore that it should maintain distance to the lane markings on the left instead of trying to center itself in the expanding lane.
• Stop light on a drive I take 3+ times a week. I'm coming up to it behind a delivery van, which blocks the view of the stop light. The car has no idea the light is there because it can't see it. But it should know there's a light there nonetheless because it's been there every other time and should require positive proof that the light has been removed before assuming it doesn't exist any more.
• Same stop light, same truck, but I'm farther back on approach so the stop light is visible. The car sees it and shows it on the touch screen display. The light is red, and I close in behind the delivery truck as we slow to a stop. That takes the light out of view due to the big truck blocking the view. The car removes it from the touch screen display. I know it can't see it any more, but it's still there.

I get that there's progress yet to be made, but I sure hope some more context and memory is going to be built in. I think it takes more than a frame of video or the last 10 seconds of video to drive well. Eyes alone are not enough.

 

[oldTAVguy]

You left out "brains". I've noticed many times that Autopilot would benefit from knowing what area it's in, or remembering what it's seen there before. As a for instance:

• Driving in the right lane on a highway. The lane starts to widen on the right because there's an off-ramp coming and the existing lane widens to the right until it's wide enough (double-wide or nearly so) for the lane lines to start and distinguish the new exit lane. My Model 3 notices the lane widening and drifts to the right to stay more centered, and then has to jerk back to the left when it sees the new lane line start and it's driving right toward the middle of the two lanes. That's stupid -- it should know from map/GPS that there's an exit lane coming up imminently, and therefore that the right-most travel lane widening to the right must be in preparation for that new exit lane, and therefore that it should maintain distance to the lane markings on the left instead of trying to center itself in the expanding lane.
• Stop light on a drive I take 3+ times a week. I'm coming up to it behind a delivery van, which blocks the view of the stop light. The car has no idea the light is there because it can't see it. But it should know there's a light there nonetheless because it's been there every other time and should require positive proof that the light has been removed before assuming it doesn't exist any more.
• Same stop light, same truck, but I'm farther back on approach so the stop light is visible. The car sees it and shows it on the touch screen display. The light is red, and I close in behind the delivery truck as we slow to a stop. That takes the light out of view due to the big truck blocking the view. The car removes it from the touch screen display. I know it can't see it any more, but it's still there.

I get that there's progress yet to be made, but I sure hope some more context and memory is going to be built in. I think it takes more than a frame of video or the last 10 seconds of video to drive well. Eyes alone are not enough.

Also, the Tesla can know when it changes legal borders that change driving rules.

 

[Unpilot]

People tend to be very short-sighted.

You don't want to have weak hands with a true Gorilla like Tesla. A lot of growth that is begging to be captured is still left. The masses of people who washed ashore at $420, $550 and $750 can tell you how bad it feels to lose your grip. It will feel worse when TSLA is trading at $4000 or even $10,000. Woulda, shoulda, coulda.

What people need to harness this growth is an amazing new product from Investor's Edge called GorillaGrip(tm). It costs nothing, takes no time out of your day and it has a long track record of minting millionaires. GorillaGrip(tm) is found wherever people have patience, conviction and growing brokerage accounts. Get yours today and see how it can help ensure your financial future.

I think this would work better.

 

[lafrisbee]

FUGK I do not know how I can handle THIS?
And then I read the posts and see you guys have been living and bleeding, and breathing this for months...hell and the bad crap for years!?
If you can't remember, I told the forum I bought TSLA at $644 because I closed my chinese stocks when I thought the corona virus was going to get the Stock buyer to flee from China. And I put it in TSLA because of the Cyber(truck) because a few people in the Cyber(truck) threads and forums were bragging about being able to pay with for their Cyber with the money they were making on TSLA. (These weren't rich people like you guys. They were like me.)
Me? I figured if the stuff about the stock was true then perhaps when I got the truck in 2 years my 110 shares ($70k) would double and pay for the truck.
I watched TSLA like a hawk that first week, just hoping it didn't tank... and then that "THING" happened. You can only imagine, this is the first time I picked a stock. And to have to deal with these crazy increases...
It must be even crazier in some of you that have lived TSLA for so long. We have such different perspectives...
I THINK I AM GOING TO GET THE CYBER WITH ALL THE OPTIONS WITHOUT MUCH TROUBLE. I plan on living in it.
Edit I forgot to add all I have in stocks is in my ROTH. So no need to figure the taxes.

 

[StealthP3D]

You left out "brains". I've noticed many times that Autopilot would benefit from knowing what area it's in, or remembering what it's seen there before. As a for instance:
I get that there's progress yet to be made, but I sure hope some more context and memory is going to be built in. I think it takes more than a frame of video or the last 10 seconds of video to drive well. Eyes alone are not enough.

I was responding to the concept that vision was not enough sensory input to determine the correct speed to drive. Because someone might alter a sign with paint or tape.

I thought it was obvious the AI needs to know what to do with the sensory input! That's what Tesla and others are working on...

 

[JusRelax]

FUGK I do not know how I can handle THIS?
And then I read the posts and see you guys have been living and bleeding, and breathing this for months...hell and the bad crap for years!?
If you can't remember, I told the forum I bought TSLA at $644 because I closed my chinese stocks when I thought the corona virus was going to get the Stock buyer to flee from China. And I put it in TSLA because of the Cyber(truck) because a few people in the Cyber(truck) threads and forums were bragging about being able to pay with for their Cyber with the money they were making on TSLA. (These weren't rich people like you guys. They were like me.)
Me? I figured if the stuff about the stock was true then perhaps when I got the truck in 2 years my 110 shares ($70k) would double and pay for the truck.
I watched TSLA like a hawk that first week, just hoping it didn't tank... and then that "THING" happened. You can only imagine, this is the first time I picked a stock. And to have to deal with these crazy increases...
It must be even crazier in some of you that have lived TSLA for so long. We have such different perspectives...
I THINK I AM GOING TO GET THE CYBER WITH ALL THE OPTIONS WITHOUT MUCH TROUBLE. I plan on living in it.
Edit I forgot to add all I have in stocks is in my ROTH. So no need to figure the taxes.

How old are you? Note that you need to be 59 1/2 yrs old or older to be able to pull out of your roth without having to pay taxes.

EDIT: There is a stipulation that if the money is used for college education or for your first house, you can pull out of your roth without any tax implications. Hmmm you stated you plan on living out of your cybertruck.. not sure if that qualifies but if it does, please let us know; that would be pretty cool!

 

[elasalle]

.
.

I'm no AI expert, but I cannot imagine a computer, storing thousands of photos per minute for hours, days, years (mine would handle about a minute of that then probably die) then trying to locate photos in memory based on...your GPS location??? Then playing spot the difference between this photo and current photo. Like you'd have to have the entire world mapped out and stored on a supercomputer that feeds info to the cars? Ohhh thats what Jonas meant with the 5G pizza dish.
Fortunately people smarter than me are on the case! It's not done yet

As humans, as we get familiar with our home/work routes we drive based on muscle memory. (sometimes it's like how did I even drive home)
Go to unfamiliar neighbourhood, state - then we tend to be more alert. Something in us causes this ...

If AI is to replicate humans behavior, then it would be wise to do something like this ... cheers!!

 

[MC3OZ]

I'm no AI expert, but I cannot imagine a computer, storing thousands of photos per minute for hours, days, years (mine would handle about a minute of that then probably die) then trying to locate photos in memory based on...your GPS location??? Then playing spot the difference between this photo and current photo. Like you'd have to have the entire world mapped out and stored on a supercomputer that feeds info to the cars? Ohhh thats what Jonas meant with the 5G pizza dish.
Fortunately people smarter than me are on the case! It's not done yet

My hunch is if they do something like this is is simply vectors on the driving space, speed, direction, obstructions, pedestrian crossing, stop signs, speed ;limit signs, traffic lights, intersections... etc...

Each car cross-checks the low level map against what it is seeing and helps update it... I'm not sure how it is shared amongst the fleet.. probably via map downloads... How much data it would require is hard to know... but maps already have a lot of that data....

Why I think it might be needed is for driving in snow or conditions with poor visibility, it provides a clue on what cameras expect to find...

 

[Tachyon]

Ominous sign for the short shorts

 

[killianss]

FUGK I do not know how I can handle THIS?
And then I read the posts and see you guys have been living and bleeding, and breathing this for months...hell and the bad crap for years!?
If you can't remember, I told the forum I bought TSLA at $644 because I closed my chinese stocks when I thought the corona virus was going to get the Stock buyer to flee from China. And I put it in TSLA because of the Cyber(truck) because a few people in the Cyber(truck) threads and forums were bragging about being able to pay with for their Cyber with the money they were making on TSLA. (These weren't rich people like you guys. They were like me.)
Me? I figured if the stuff about the stock was true then perhaps when I got the truck in 2 years my 110 shares ($70k) would double and pay for the truck.
I watched TSLA like a hawk that first week, just hoping it didn't tank... and then that "THING" happened. You can only imagine, this is the first time I picked a stock. And to have to deal with these crazy increases...
It must be even crazier in some of you that have lived TSLA for so long. We have such different perspectives...
I THINK I AM GOING TO GET THE CYBER WITH ALL THE OPTIONS WITHOUT MUCH TROUBLE. I plan on living in it.
Edit I forgot to add all I have in stocks is in my ROTH. So no need to figure the taxes.

How do you pay for your Cybertruck if your stocks is in ROTH? *serious questions*

Welcome to the club!

This place is pretty much bear-free area.

 

[AudubonB]

Being direct > Belgium > Beer, waffles > Obesity

It's astonishing how quickly discussions can derail in this thread. Stubborn bunch. Several posts about obesity were removed and so will any more on the four subjects above.

Okay.
Dutch>Klompen>vanGogh>Earless.
Gee, this is fun. Can non-Mods play?

~Vetinari, shoeless at the beach~

 

[Bobfitz1]

Thanks for the link.

I was responding to the implication that the ARK analysis was wildly inconsistent from page to page and that this damaged their credibility. In fact, the two numbers represented completely different things.

I cited one example of inconsistency at the end of my first post which another member pointed out correctly was my error.

As to the accuracy of their projections, look at what ARK says about their own forecast for Global EV sales of 37 million from all manufacturers (from page 26 of your link):
The biggest risk to ARK’s forecast is whether or not traditional automakers will be able to scale EV production. If they do, then global EV sales could hit 37 million units in 2024.
So ARK admits their 37 million forecast is dependent upon traditional automakers being able to rapidly scale production. This is in BIG letters.

My posts primary point was that ARK's forecast of 37M EV sales in 2024 was unsupportably high. Qualifying that on page 26 by saying "only if traditional automakers will be able to scale EV production" is IMO not a meaningful caveat to their unrealistic forecast because the ICE companies could "scale EV production" to some degree, but not come anywhere close to 37M. ARK didn't say rapidly scale production. Nor did they say a more accurate "only if they are able to scale production at an unprecedented 79% CAGR".
On page 20 they wrote: "ARK’s thesis for the evolution of the market differs dramatically. Based on Wright’s Law, we forecast EV sales will be 37 million units, six-times higher than the forecasting agencies’ consensus estimate for 2024." No caveat at all here.

In other words, ARK's valuation projections of TSLA are largely independent of ICE manufacturer's ability to scale EV production.

Yes. I would say based on the longer more detailed ARK article from Jan. 31, 2020 "Tesla's Potential Trajectory During the Next Five Years", ARK's TSLA valuation projections are entirely independent of ICE manufacturers ability to scale. Your negative correlations seem very likely, but ARK doesn't note them as factors in their (10) Tesla scenarios. Tesla Price Target: Tesla's Potential Trajectory During the Next Five Years

How does this argue against ARK's TSLA valuation models?

My posts never said anything against ARK's TSLA valuation projections. They were against ARK's 37M projection for global EV sales in 2024 and how it appears they arrived at it. I.e. assuming all non Tesla manufacturers could achieve 79% CAGR with no details about how this might be possible over five years. The mystery of how ARK's Tesla models seem very good yet they can come up with what I'd argue is an outlandish prediction for global EV sales, remains a mystery. It is just that even very smart people occasionally lay an egg.

One last caveat as to what a realistic 2024 global EV sales might be. While I don't believe the western ICE manufacturers can grow at 79% yearly, I don't know for sure if the larger Chinese EV manufacturers might manage to grow as fast as Tesla. They would have to be able to drive battery costs down as rapidly as we expect Tesla to drive them down. That seems unlikely.

 

[JakeP]

You left out "brains". I've noticed many times that Autopilot would benefit from knowing what area it's in, or remembering what it's seen there before. As a for instance:

• Driving in the right lane on a highway. The lane starts to widen on the right because there's an off-ramp coming and the existing lane widens to the right until it's wide enough (double-wide or nearly so) for the lane lines to start and distinguish the new exit lane. My Model 3 notices the lane widening and drifts to the right to stay more centered, and then has to jerk back to the left when it sees the new lane line start and it's driving right toward the middle of the two lanes. That's stupid -- it should know from map/GPS that there's an exit lane coming up imminently, and therefore that the right-most travel lane widening to the right must be in preparation for that new exit lane, and therefore that it should maintain distance to the lane markings on the left instead of trying to center itself in the expanding lane.
• Stop light on a drive I take 3+ times a week. I'm coming up to it behind a delivery van, which blocks the view of the stop light. The car has no idea the light is there because it can't see it. But it should know there's a light there nonetheless because it's been there every other time and should require positive proof that the light has been removed before assuming it doesn't exist any more.
• Same stop light, same truck, but I'm farther back on approach so the stop light is visible. The car sees it and shows it on the touch screen display. The light is red, and I close in behind the delivery truck as we slow to a stop. That takes the light out of view due to the big truck blocking the view. The car removes it from the touch screen display. I know it can't see it any more, but it's still there.

I get that there's progress yet to be made, but I sure hope some more context and memory is going to be built in. I think it takes more than a frame of video or the last 10 seconds of video to drive well. Eyes alone are not enough.

Simply put, object consistency should NOT be a concept restricted to human intelligence. Agree 100%.