Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Zaxxon]

0001564590-20-005288 | 8-K | Tesla, Inc.
8k filling for the raise, it was:

• fully subscribed
• underwriters took all the 397.5k additional shares too.
• Net proceeding ~$2.31B

What an utterly shocking development.

Spoiler: Not really

 

[jschwefel]

TSLA is getting so interesting, to the point another holding of mine was up 25% in 2 weeks and I hardly noticed.
I guess that shows how diversified my account is.

Correction: just double checked it was up ~50% in 20 days, still, didn’t notice.

You mean you actually have other holdings.?

 

[CorneliusXX]

And that stops them from having dates because...........??

Anyways, our favorite CEO is 'unmarried' 3 times or was it 4 times?

The only moat is the pace of innovation.

 

[Artful Dodger]

View attachment 512887

NYSE: TM (Toyota Motor Corp) closed about 33% above the TSLA market cap today.

$1,213.97 for TSLA to match TM mkt cap if they can hold today's SP (now down 3% YTD)

Yup. Won't take long now. S&P 500, get ready: A Klingon Warrior is about to arrive.

 

[StealthP3D]

if I may jump in on @Bobfitz1 side. He’s not disagreeing with Ark’s valuation. It’s the methodology.

I.e. They’re effectively doing this:

1) Assume 37M EVs worldwide.
2) Assume Tesla’s share remains constant (changed from decreasing).
3) Calculate market cap.

Far superior would be to assume 50% annual growth with gradually declining ASPs.

I'm familiar enough with ARK's methodologies to know they calculate it both ways to get the same answer. One method is a way to check the other method. But even ARK acknowledges that ICE makers might not match that growth. The assumption in that case is that Tesla would get a lot more than 17% market share of all autos. Because EV's declining cost curve will make them a better deal than equivalent ICE vehicles. The way it will probably play out is between the two extremes (ICE will transition to EV's more slowly, Tesla will grow as fast as they can grow and will, at some point in the adoption curve, have more than 17% market share).

At one point in the adoption of ICE vehicles, the Model T had nearly 60% market share of all ICE vehicles. They would have had 80% or more market share but they were growing as fast as they could so some buyers had to settle for an inferior, more expensive car from competitors or do without a car until they could get a Model T. Not much different from Tesla's Model 3 right now.

 

[MP3Mike]

Stock splits are out of fashion. It used to be you had to trade in lots of 100 shares. Then online meant you could trade single shares. Then DRIPs (Dividend ReInvestment Programs) meant that you might end up with fractional shares. Now many brokers will allow you to actually trade in fractional shares, as opposed to just selling out the ones that came from DRIPs or acquisitions or whatever.

Just tried it on ETrade:
View attachment 512883

If you actually try to place that order you will get an error:

Orders containing fractional shares must be entered as a closing sell order for the full fractional (decimal) quantity owned. Please edit your quantity and resubmit your order.

You are only allowed to sell fractional shares that you acquired through DRIPs.

 

[M3Rider]

I guess that when we reach a value of a few thousand in a few years’ time the new game in this thread is going to be who blinks last.

That sounds ominous.
I think @anthonyj will win. He's the youngest.

 

[EinSV]

Exponential growth forecasts are highly sensitive to the exponent. Ark predicts that Tesla will have 18% market share. That corresponds to a 62% YoY growth factor rather than a 50%. 62% may not sound like much of a difference vs. 50%, but 50% growth and 18% of the market would correspond to a market size of 23M rather than 37M.

Additionally, Tesla's guidance isn't for "50%" CAGR, but rather:

-------
Elon Musk -- Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. I think a few years ago, I said I -- yes, I think on our [Indecipherable] a few years ago, I said in my estimate, for us is that, Tesla would grow at an average compound annual rate -- average rate of in excess of 50%. I still hold to that belief.
-------

if I may jump in on @Bobfitz1

Far superior would be to assume 50% annual growth with gradually declining ASPs.

Not weighing in on the Ark issue specifically but did want to mention that I believe Elon's target is at least 50% revenue growth per year. Unit growth could be higher (depending on whether ASPs go up or down).

The Elon quote @KarenRei mentions refers to an earlier statement he made "a few years ago."

What I think Elon was referring to was his statement in February 2015 that he believed Tesla could achieve 50% revenue growth on the way to an Apple-like valuation:

"If you take this year's revenue, around $6 billion or thereabouts, and if we're able to maintain a 50% growth rate for 10 years, and achieve a 10% profitability number, and have a 20 P/E, our market cap would be basically the same as Apple's is today," Musk said. Elon Musk: Tesla Motors, Inc. Could Be Worth $700 Billion Someday | The Motley Fool

​

Can't resist adding this comment from Motley Fool's Daniel Sparks, who was one of Tesla's early supporters:

"Sweet and sour implications
Investors shouldn't fault Musk for dreaming big. Obviously, doing so has worked out very well for him. And who knows? Maybe Tesla's growth will truly astound us all over the next 10 years. But counting on such an optimistic outlook would be a mistake."

 

[Krugerrand]

How many of you get messages on days like today to sell? I need new friends. It’s always the people that sold at $320 that want you to get out too.

In two months it might be at 700,600,500, but also somewhere in the next 5 years it’s going to be at 1,000, 2,000, or 3,000. It’s common sense to hold on, ride the small waves and cash out to buy more Tesla’s haha

No, but I am still getting adoption requests that now include some serious begging. Fortunately, my heart is made of stone. Begging is just pathetic.

Yes, new friends might be helpful, or not. Depends if you’ve learned your lesson or not.

 

[ggr]

If you actually try to place that order you will get an error:



You are only allowed to sell fractional shares that you acquired through DRIPs.

Oh, OK. I guess I'll stick with lots of 100 then. . But it used to be that when I had fractional shares I had to call them to sell.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Hmmm. 2.31 billon. Where to spend it. Well, they could start by restocking the online store for things like 14-50 adapters and Chademo adapters.

Maybe throw a couple hundred mil at more V3 Supercharger access.

Hmmm, what else....

 

[Thekiwi]

CNBC has a guy from ARK on to talk about SPCE. They haven’t invested in it because they think all excitement on space is being focused on this one stock, but the CNBC host said “so like Tesla and electric cars?” ARK guy said no difference is Virgin Galactic hasn’t put anyone in space, while Tesla has proven itself, and is closer to realizing its potential with the most advanced autonomous fleet.

Weak comment by CNBC to compare Tesla’s progress with Virgin Galactic

LOL - can't believe what's happening with SPCE (they have no hope selling tickets for $250k each for a few minutes of "space" once SpaceX starts orbital tourism operations with a Starship).

 

[humbaba]

It does point out that FSD cannot rely upon visual cues alone. Nothing will stop people from doing more malicious stuff to signs.

As others have already pointed out, what about humans? Pranksters have altered and moved signs before and it will fool a certain fraction of the population, and a certain other fraction will use it as an excuse to do the wrong thing.

To be fair it’s illegal to graffiti a road sign. I could stop a non autopilot car with road spikes but it’s illegal. I’m more concerned with autopilot mishaps that come from naturally occurring events versus someone doing something blatantly illegal. A trash bag could cover a speed limit sign but Tesla’s rely on their gps to understand the current laws of that road.

Just seems like they wanted to write an article about Tesla and ran with it. It’s a cheap shot but it doesn’t matter much

While you are correct in your observation, Tesla claims to read the signs. There's a semi-frequent rural drive I do and it is on a 55mph state highway. Driving out of town is fine and it correctly applies the current speed limit. But on the return trip it has no clue and so autopilot limits the speed to 45mph. I've encountered this in other situations as well. There's a stretch of road in town that is mostly 25mph, but has a four block stretch that is 20mph. Only in one of those blocks does it know the 20mph speed limit, and for some of it it thinks it is 30mph or even 35mph.

Exactly. And someone could put a detour sign off a cliff. Per Tesla service last year, I was told that the lines on the road needed to be the correct color and reflectivity to be a valid line. I'd imagine the same filters would apply to speed signs. Although I've seen confusion from black tar repair lines all over and a sunset glaring.

I think the mistakes made with AI will shift in type from distraction/drunk related accidents to things that appear more nuance... things that no human would miss - labeling the system "stupid" by some critics. But the net safety improves on average, and par for the course when big things like this change.

Once in a Lifetime.

The highlighted part is the important point here. There's nothing wrong with using vision, the issue is that Tesla's AI vision is not good enough at discrimination, though it keeps getting better. For example, about a year ago I was driving around St. Louis and AP was confused by an angled transition of concrete and asphalt, the contrast convincing it that it needed to make a sudden turn of about 30 degrees. Fortunately I was alert and averted disaster. I haven't seen that sort of problem since then.

Here's the thing: if you have a non-vision based vehicle (LIDAR) it can only know speed limits that are programmed in. That's fine for very limited geofencing, not so good in general. And even in geofencing updates for changes to roads require maintenance of the database to keep it accurate. And that isn't even getting into a new school, a school being closed, etc.

 

[larmor]

The new game will be celebrating as each person hits "their number", after which life changes radically, and how they change their life. That's why, at least for me, $2xx / $7xx / $9xx are all the same - no change. But $2xxx - I think that probably means it's time for a retirement party. Maybe time for a job with Tesla as an Owner Advisor (part time of course) - you know - something to get me out of the house and around people now and then

My number was 1 and was hit when i was able to get my model X, and everything about my entire life of driving was altered. Driving at the speed of thought, not going to a gas station, and simple lane keeping in the HOV lanes of SoCal was enough to change my entire outlook. I enjoy not spitting our carbon monoxide let alone other pollutants.

One reason the market was slow to respond to TSLA is the market runs on headlines, and does not drive to work and back. Now that the market has had its fill of AWS hosted youtube and netflix, and what have you videos, and has liked and clicked everything possible, its time for the market to drive home, and drive home tesla it will... (this is not poetry)

 

[azaz]

Are you the Finance guy from twitter who has been yelling for the last few months that Tesla was going to crash? Have you held your short position thru this big rise?

such a nonsensical baseless reply it doesn't even deserve a response, least you could do is check the posting history at least.

 

[Beltsbear]

CATL-Built Tesla Model 3 Battery Pack Will Use Prismatic Cells | CleanTechnica

guess it's 'confirmed'?

That must mean they have insane demand if they are going to make a new pack like that.

 

[M3Rider]

LOL - can't believe what's happening with SPCE (they have no hope selling tickets for $250k each for a few minutes of "space" once SpaceX starts orbital tourism operations with a Starship).

Sounds like a bad deal. Elon said a ticket to Mars will be the price of a house. So, comparable.

 

[ninpb]

It does point out that FSD cannot rely upon visual cues alone. Nothing will stop people from doing more malicious stuff to signs.

If my 3 chuckles after seeing a Black Angus sign with the G blacked out then I will have considered autonomy driving solved.

 

[StealthP3D]

One reason the market was slow to respond to TSLA is the market runs on headlines, and does not drive to work and back.

I'm not sure if you meant that literally but, if so, it's a good insight.

The Wall Street crowd doesn't do much driving. Maybe a weekend jaunt to Long Island, etc. They really aren't, for the most part, car guys. It's not surprising they don't understand how revolutionary Tesla is vs. many of us who do everything by car.

Is that what you meant when you said "the market....doesn't drive to work and back"?

 

[azaz]

What time did the AH move start yesterday?