Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[bhtooefr]

Yep.

GM tried out the mild hybrid waters a couple years ago. e.g. with the Chevy Malibu.
It was a failure for a couple of reasons: the EPA ratings were not improved enough over standard ICE to move the GM consumer given the extras cost of $1 - $2 thousand dollars, and people rejected the trade-off of no AC when the car was standing still. So far as I know, mild hybrids are also frowned upon in Europe for similar reasons despite the much higher fuel prices.

The one a couple years ago wasn't mild. And I figured it'd have an electric compressor like the Volt? (And I think why it was discontinued was a combination of most sedans flopping in the North American market (and it being a North American-specific product), and it using the Volt's hybrid system.) Previous ones were mild, though, and if you don't use an electric AC compressor, or run the engine to run the AC system, yeah, you'll lose the AC.

Here's the simple breakdown:

"Micro hybrid": BS marketing term that happened in the 2000s for a car (Smart ForTwo in Europe) with a start-stop system on the accessory drive in place of the alternator (and with no separate starter). Nowadays, this isn't considered a hybrid. Nor is a regenerative alternator strategy (that prioritizes charging under coasting/braking), you actually need propulsion to be considered a hybrid.
Mild hybrid: The electric motor performs regenerative braking and helps the engine, but cannot move the vehicle on its own. New mild hybrids usually have it in place of the alternator, but in the 2000s it wasn't uncommon to see it in place of the flywheel or flexplate.
"Full hybrid": The electric motor can move the vehicle on its own.
Plug-in hybrid: It has a charging socket to recharge the battery. These are almost always full hybrids (although Ferrari made one that normally operates as a mild hybrid!)
"Extended Range Electric Vehicle": GM marketing term for a plug-in hybrid that has full performance in electric mode - this is just the Volt. Note that this often requires limiting performance when the ICE is running - so the Volt was a EREV, but the nearly identical ELR didn't have those limits, and was faster with the ICE running and therefore was a PHEV.
"BEVx": California legal term for a plug-in hybrid that has shorter city range in ICE mode than it does in electric mode - this is the BMW i3 REx.

 

[Tslynk67]

Yesterday I checked Belgian M3 inventory and there were around 20 cars available, this morning there are none.

No Model S (yesterday there were two pre-facelifts), there are 4 new Model X and one 2nd hand.

 

[DrMazeppa]

So the plan for this week is to touch 740-750 and close at 800?

That is, if the world does not fall into a massive craze over the flu....people are so irrational I start understanding why so many want their own island

 

[Tslynk67]

Yikes, Nasdaq futures were +0.20% when I looked an hour ago, now -0.80%

Could be another one of those days!

Edit: and now back to 0.40%

 

[chrsk]

Sold 20% of my shares.... Guess I'm a week long now

 

[ev-enthusiast]

SP -5%.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Yikes, Nasdaq futures were +0.20% when I looked an hour ago, now -0.80%

Could be another one of those days!

... and TSLA went directly to the Mid-BB ($773.25 as of last night) when the Pre-Market opened in New York. SP in Frankfurt @ 10:10 CET (04:10 EST) equiv. of $768.73



Nikkei timed the release of their Panasonic article to perfection, given they must have known about the solar split since last month when Elon announced the Company Day in Buffalo. Don't let anybody tell you the Media isn't in on the payola; they're carrying the Shortzes water.

753.78 United States Dollar (eqiv.) in Frankfurt at 10:12 trying to dive under the possibility of a bounce with pre-Market shenanigans.

NASDAQ 15-min delayed Pre-Market data live now:

Pre-Market Low:
$ 758.42
(04:12:33 AM)​

EDIT: (04:35 EST)
Early Pre-Market appears to have steadied up somewhat with support at $767 (CapRaise Offer SP from Feb 04)

 

[LN1_Casey]

I think the market is probably going to overreact to the Panasonic/Tesla GF New York deal. That coupled with the still sick fears, I don't think we'll end this week positively.

But, this is just another buying opportunity! The fundamentals are still very strong, and then Tesla starts to deliver the Model Y at the EOQ, coupled with good GF Shanghai deliveries, we're bound to have a positive Q1, and if a positive Q1, S&P500 addition is immanent.

All signs point positive, and this is just a minor bump on the road.

 

[WarpedOne]

My powder is in the dryer ...

 

[LJS22]

Welp if this continues I will be loading up on shares on Friday.
-Shorts are running into a death trap again
-idk what’s going on with solar but I’m positive Musk wasn’t blindsided by any of this; there’s a plan, always is.
-Coronavirus is tough to account for. It’s created a domino effect in the markets that can’t easily be reversed without some news that the outlook for the virus is fine.
-autopilot is fine
-the recent roll of bad news has been timed quite well. Reminiscent of last year. I see us turning that around quicker than Q3 though.
- if I had to guess I’d say model y March deliveries will be the catalyst to get us back on track, it seems right, hopefully we get that, battery/company day, and good Q1 deliveries back to back to back.
-until then we can let the shorts throw gasoline on themselves as they wait for their impending burn this year.

 

[Evoforce]

Sold 20% of my shares.... Guess I'm a week long now

You said it!

 

[Evoforce]

My powder is in the dryer ...

Better than the powder being in your wig!

 

[Nuclear Fusion]

this is just a minor bump on the road.

Pandemic is more than minor

 

[DrMazeppa]

Pandemic is more than minor

though this is likely a strong flu, not the black plague...

But yes, it does not really matter for investors. Irrationality, paranoia and stocks in a bubble are the elements to consider (which can lead to significant slowdown in economic activity). Not the real health implications...2 cents.

 

[KarenRei]

Talk to KarenRei lol

I don't cheer for low prices; high prices make me very happy indeed. I just make use of low prices when they happen and don't freak out about them, as I have no concerns over the longer term.

 

[lascavarian]

Fully agree with this perspective. Name one thing that India is known for in the manufacturing sector.

Mahindra sells tractors which I would consider moderately heavy equipment.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I'm a little bit worried about CATL. What if CATL has done some magic (and owns the patents) and is leading the next gen battery chemistry and/or pack technology?

I'm sure you all disagree. But can you calm me down?

Dunno. Have you tried Klaviermusik?

Tesla, Inc. Common Stock Real Time Stock Quotes
Tesla, Inc. Common Stock (TSLA) Real-Time Stock Quote - NASDAQ.com

Cheers!

 

[ReflexFunds]

I don't think Tesla is going to undertake this for the foreseeable future for the same reason that I don't think they'll license any battery tech for the foreseeable future. Traditional auto has shown itself to be unwilling and slow to change over the past decade. During the Model X unveil Elon still seemed very optimistic that traditional auto would follow in Tesla's footsteps, but I think that has changed. I think it's clear that the fastest way to transition the world to sustainable transportation and energy for Tesla is to do it by itself. I believe Elon realises this.

Therefore, I expect Tesla to be laser focussed for the better part of the 2020s on ramping up their own battery and vehicle production until they're able to produce 10-20M EVs annually, huge amounts of batteries for storage, and a crazy number of solar roofs. Helping traditional auto with their battery and/or software problems will only distract Tesla from this core mission.

Maybe a company other than Tesla will build an operating system for traditional auto, but it's often not the best idea to start a new line of business in a shrinking market. Traditional auto and the software systems they use are currently shrinking markets, and their upcoming financial difficulties means they will not have spare cash to pay high premiums for great software.

I completely agree with this.
I really think over the past 2 years Tesla's mission statement has changed from "accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy" to "transition the world to sustainable energy". Elon got tired of the incompetence and foot dragging shown by large corporations and governments around the world.

There are many reasons why Tesla going alone is the fastest route to transition the world:
1: Tesla's vertical integration, superior tech and better product means it will make more cash flow per EV.
2: More cash flow means more money available to invest in R&D and capex for faster expansion.
3: Elon knows Tesla's R&D and capex efficiency is far higher than anyone else.
4: Elon knows Tesla can build EV and cell capacity much faster than anyone else.
5: Elon knows Tesla will spend 100% of available cash flow on accelerating the world's transition to Clean Energy - while other Auto OEMs will spend cash on dividends, share buybacks, emissions fines, legal fees, ICE advertising & R&D, ICE recalls, legacy ICE pension/lease fleet liabilities, anti-clean energy lobbying etc. Tesla will spend excess cash on new EV and cell capacity, solar, stationary storage (& maybe even wind) installations, self driving EV fleets etc.
6: Elon knows Tesla actually cares about sustainability and are not just acting to avoid emissions fines. He can't trust other companies not to try to cheat the system or to clean up their supply chains.
7: Tesla has best access to the capital markets to raise additional funds to accelerate growth where possible.
8: Elon knows Tesla is structured to accelerate learning rates and experience curves and will make the most use out of its cumulative EV production experience. Therefore an EV produced by Tesla will move the EV and battery cost curve further than an EV produced by anyone else.

I wish all companies well in their Clean Energy efforts, but ICE OEMs are going to have to work to save themselves because Tesla's energy, capital and competitive lead is best spent directly on its own EVs & Clean Energy rather than bailing out other companies.

 

[heltok]

How many MYP do we expect will be delivered in Q1? What kind of margins can we expect on these?

 

[Nuclear Fusion]

though this is likely a strong flu, not the black plague...

But yes, it does not really matter for investors. Irrationality, paranoia and stocks in a bubble are the elements to consider (which can lead to significant slowdown in economic activity). Not the real health implications...2 cents.

Covid is twice as contagious as influenza, with 20 to 30 times the mortality rate
And it’s only in its infancy with relatively little known about it. It could end up being worse than swine flu