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don't see this confirmed elsewhere or on the vatican website. Got other sources?

He has been sick recently:

Pope cancels visit with Rome priests for 'slight' illness
Pope Francis cancels plans for 3rd day as he battles apparent cold
Pope Resumes Individual Official Audiences, Cancels Group Meetings

But I don't see confirmation either, and on Friday the Vatican had stated (in response to COVID-19 speculation), "There is no evidence that would lead to diagnosing anything but a mild indisposition".

Regardless, this belongs in the Coronavirus thread:

Coronavirus
 
I mean the homie touches like 6000 people a day, I guess it was inevitable. Something about it is funny to me though.
Watch this... I bet he won't die. Like won't even get close to dying.

What was market's response to the 2009 Avian flu?
It's seems to me to not have been nearly as severe as the current panic.
I'm convinced that shady financial institutions are using the virus as an excuse to play a bunch of diabolical games with our money. Standard Illuminati type stuff yaknow
 
What was market's response to the 2009 Avian flu?
It's seems to me to not have been nearly as severe as the current panic.

2009 Market was just post Financial Crisis, it was already severely down. I dont recall Flu causing more strains on Market at least.

Right now we are at PEAK, and Market needed a reason to go down ...
 
I mean the homie touches like 6000 people a day, I guess it was inevitable. Something about it is funny to me though.
Watch this... I bet he won't die. Like won't even get close to dying.

OK, just YOLO'd errything on April Pope Francis calls and looking to share all my tendies at the big island shindig that UnPilot invited us to.
 
Weekend OT:

Turned on my TV this morning and first time ever seeing a Formula-E race being broadcasted on a national sports channel here in Toronto. Never seen a e-race before and the strategies being talked about are so much different from a regular ICEV race. It's all about energy conservation and max energy regen, etc..

20200229_091047.jpg
20200229_091315.jpg
 
I got the feeling that the mid-600’s were the bottom so I bought a couple of shares in after hours. One for my girlfriend and one for my 14 year old daughter. Is it Monday yet? :)

A few years ago when my nephew-in-law and his wife had their first baby, we decided to buy one share of TSLA stock as a birthday present. (Those were the days, it was CHEAP compared to now!) We’ve bought additional shares in subsequent years. Can you imagine what that tiny amount of stock’s gonna be worth when that kid turns 18? I figure, brand new Tesla car for sure. It’ll probably fly as well as drive.
 
Generally agree with your analysis. But want to point out cruise passengers tend to be old but also tend to be the healthy old who are able to roam around the world.

Less than 10% of the elderly are sick at any given moment - yet even regular influenza has a very high mortality rate among them, which is why even the healthy are strongly advised to get the vaccine.

I.e. the danger of these viral infections is not primarily connected to the old being sick, but to the old being old.

To quote:

"The flu can hit anybody hard, but it's especially dangerous for people over 65 and others with weak immune systems. If you're older, it's particularly dangerous because the viral infection can exhaust your body, making it easy for life-threatening complications such as bacterial pneumonia to take hold."​

The problem with the coronavirus is that pneumonia is part of its primary outcomes, it's not the result of secondary infections.
 

Highly recommend.

Another idea that haven't been properly digested is this:
840144b505b7ba120c92cd1b0b3437e6.jpg


Effectively means - that tesla cars (with the new to be announced chemistry) can double as decentralized Hornsdale batteries.

Hornsdale big battery doubles savings to consumers, and keeps lights on | RenewEconomy
"Neoen on Friday released a report by energy consultancy Aurecon on the Hornsdale Power Reserve – which at 100MW and 129MWh remains the biggest lithium-ion battery in the world – and found that the money it saved consumers in 2019 jumped to $116 million, from $40 million in 2018."

Assuming 70kwh/car - that's equivalent to 1843 cars pr Hornsdale battery.
Well if the Hornsdale battery could save customers 116m$ in 2019.... and it takes 1843 cars to equal a decentralized Hornsdale battery... well, you do the math.

Let's just say - I'm excited for battery day.
 
I mean the homie touches like 6000 people a day, I guess it was inevitable. Something about it is funny to me though.
Watch this... I bet he won't die. Like won't even get close to dying.


I'm convinced that shady financial institutions are using the virus as an excuse to play a bunch of diabolical games with our money. Standard Illuminati type stuff yaknow


If you get really, REALLY morbid and think of managing your country like playing a game. You'll want to let this virus burn through the population. If you look at the stats. 33% of the population contracts it in a closed environment. 5% need to be hooked up to a machine and 3% die. The other side of the coin is you commit financial seppuku like China. I think that is what Iran is doing.

Years later, we'll have studies upon studies on which country's government is most compassionate towards their citizens and which country is most interested in financial advancement.
 
The 15% figure is also false.

The best, most reliable, most developed case study data we have on hospitalization rates is the Diamond Princess cruise ship, where a significant percentage of the passengers got infected and everyone got tested.

Here's their current status:

Diamond Princess: 705 cases, 6 dead, 36 serious, 10 recovered

6 dead, 36 serious and 10 recovered cases suggests an estimated 5%-7% hospitalization rate, depending on how many of the recovered were serious cases before. Not 15%.

And note that this is a vulnerable demographic: cruise ship average passenger age is about 10 years more than the median, and the coronavirus is more severe with older patients. This shift of 10 years in the average age is a significant factor - for example in the U.S. only one out of the 66 cases is listed as 'serious'.

This is not cherry-picking and there's very little bias beyond the average age bias:
  • 705 cases is a large enough sample size,
  • the group was largely isolated at sea while the infections occurred,
  • everyone on board of the ship got tested,
  • this group is late in the epidemic curve: the number of new Diamond Princess cases has slowed down to a trickle of 1-2 new cases per day, so hospitalization rates are representative.
The real hospitalization rate could be significantly lower than the Diamond Princess numbers suggest, due to the age related upward bias in the hospitalization rate.

I'm really surprised why some people who make negative tone due-diligence notes don't double check their own assumptions with ... actual data first. :confused: I'm not saying the virus shouldn't be taken seriously - it should - but any argument should be solidly anchored in data and scientific arguments.
From The Economist, February 27, 2020:
"A broad guess is that 25-70% of the population of any infected country may catch the disease. China’s experience suggests that, of the cases that are detected, roughly 80% will be mild, 15% will need treatment in hospital and 5% will require intensive care. Experts say that the virus may be five to ten times as lethal as seasonal flu, which, with a fatality rate of 0.1%, kills 60,000 Americans in a bad year. Across the world, the death toll could be in the millions."
The virus is coming
(may be paywalled)
 

Highly recommend.

Another idea that haven't been properly digested is this:
840144b505b7ba120c92cd1b0b3437e6.jpg


Effectively means - that tesla cars (with the new to be announced chemistry) can double as decentralized Hornsdale batteries.

Hornsdale big battery doubles savings to consumers, and keeps lights on | RenewEconomy
"Neoen on Friday released a report by energy consultancy Aurecon on the Hornsdale Power Reserve – which at 100MW and 129MWh remains the biggest lithium-ion battery in the world – and found that the money it saved consumers in 2019 jumped to $116 million, from $40 million in 2018."

Assuming 70kwh/car - that's equivalent to 1843 cars pr Hornsdale battery.
Well if the Hornsdale battery could save customers 116m$ in 2019.... and it takes 1843 cars to equal a decentralized Hornsdale battery... well, you do the math.

Let's just say - I'm excited for battery day.
I would LOVE to see Tesla reverse course and embrace using EVs to stabilize the grid. And eventually boost renewable adoption via technologies such as V2H. (And maybe even V2G someday, if it ever comes to that). This is by far the best approach for society, even if it may not be the best approach for Tesla's Energy division.
 
From The Economist, February 27, 2020:
"A broad guess is that 25-70% of the population of any infected country may catch the disease. China’s experience suggests that, of the cases that are detected, roughly 80% will be mild, 15% will need treatment in hospital and 5% will require intensive care. Experts say that the virus may be five to ten times as lethal as seasonal flu, which, with a fatality rate of 0.1%, kills 60,000 Americans in a bad year. Across the world, the death toll could be in the millions."
The virus is coming
(may be paywalled)

Sorry, but is your point really that I should trust an unattributed claim in a fluff article in The Economist over the raw data and my own lying eyes? ;)

Seriously, epidemiologists will be conservative and they'll include the Hubei data in any estimates they make - but in Hubei there was serious under-reporting of mild cases, which skewed all these rates up significantly. If you double check the numbers I cited from primary sources, you'll arrive at a similar conclusion that the observable hospitalization and critical-patient rates are a lot lower than 15% and 5%, even with a fairly conservative approach.