Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[LN1_Casey]

Planning an event and expecting fans to show up may very likely be a complete flop.

I think you're underestimating how obsessed some fans are. I think 1/2 of the youtube following would drop whatever they were doing to show up a day before the event. I bet even some of them have a preplanned trip, just in case.

 

[capster]

The discussion about a Model Y event March 14th. My guess is Tesla is putting together a "video event" or planning an audience free event. Imagine how the situation in the USA has changed in one week. March 14th is 2 weeks from now. Planning an event and expecting fans to show up may very likely be a complete flop. It is very possible 2 weeks from now, ain't nobody going nowhere. Do any of us want Elon to be at any sizeable event?

In my case, my daughter of 14 years, an 8th grader. My wife a school teacher. I suggested last Monday that they stay out of school right then and there. Just stay home a month, call in sick, really, what's she going to learn in a month, she is 14 and already smarter than I am. So, here we are, 14 year old now is 3 days, with a fever, cough, and running nose. My wife and I following in her lead. I am usually one who relishes in being able to say "I told you so!", I wish I was wrong this time.

Hope you all get well soon.

 

[Maitri982]

View attachment 517062

If they can build software/hardware to make a car navigate complicated traffic in city streets...then surely the same tech stack could be used for fighter jets. Or, autonomous supply convoys/individual vehicles that would free up a soldier from driving to being able to shoot at things.

that's not what he said. He said remotely piloted jet with AI assist. Jet going 1200 mph needs fast network connection. Starlink.

 

[KarenRei]

In my case, my daughter of 14 years, an 8th grader. My wife a school teacher. I suggested last Monday that they stay out of school right then and there. Just stay home a month, call in sick, really, what's she going to learn in a month, she is 14 and already smarter than I am. So, here we are, 14 year old now is 3 days, with a fever, cough, and running nose. My wife and I following in her lead. I am usually one who relishes in being able to say "I told you so!", I wish I was wrong this time.

FYI: While children are normally Typhoid Marys when it comes to seasonal flus, when it comes to COVID-19 (according to WHO and the CDC) cases in children are uncommon, as are severe reactions to the disease.

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

That said, they still can get and spread it, so cancellations in communities that are trying to quarantine a localized outbreak may still be wise. It's unlikely you'd see cancellations however if attempts at quarantine are given up on.

(And if you're sick, measure your temperature. If it's high, call your doctor. If it's not, it's extremely unlikely that it has anything to do with COVID-19, as fever is one of the primary symptoms. And even if it is high, odds are still overwhelming that it has nothing to do with COVID-19. It's not a bad idea for everyone to measure their temperature daily for at least a week to get an idea of what their baseline is like, since everyone's baseline can be different).

 

[StealthP3D]

yes
After ‘refreshing’ month, Tesla bear predicts ‘biggest single stock bubble in this whole bubble market’ will hit zero

Yes, it usually does feel "refreshing" to get an enema. Especially one that lasts for a full week!

Now Mark Spiegel should shut up and watch Tesla do what Tesla does better than anyone. He has been predicting that 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021 would be the onslaught of Tesla killers since at least 2017!

 

[anthonyj]

They should just ban selling stocks why is there a sell button anyway

Proof that Robinhood reads this thread. They took away selling

 

[Christine69420]

Is it possible to invest in Tesla indirectly from Europe?

I have an extra investment account where only EU/EEC stocks and funds can be bought. But on the other side I can trade freely without paying taxes.

Currently I only have some global index funds there. But I might change that if I found something TSLA related. For now I can only find 10x bull/bear products and those are not what I want.

Already tried the TL0 at Frankfurt but wasn't allowed since Tesla is based in the US.

Any EU/EEC funds/ETFs with lots of TSLA?

In case this is relevant for other Europeans. I found this list at etf.com listing ETFs with TSLA holdings. All the largest ones are based in the US:

TSLA

I'm still looking for Euro based (Mutual) Funds with lots of TSLA...

 

[Fact Checking]

Big Q1 deliveries leak:

Tesla Cybertruck is already boosting sales, keeping momentum without tax credit - Electrek

"However, sources familiar with Tesla’s US sales told Electrek that the automaker’s management has given its North American sales team roughly the same delivery goal as the previous quarter."

"They are reporting strong demand in the first quarter and sources attribute it, at least partly, to the Cybertruck unveiling in November of last year."

...

"One source told Electrek that some Cybertruck reservation holders are opting to lease a Model 3 until they can take delivery of their electric pickup truck – resulting in a boost of demand."​

That's ... very bullish, given that China is likely going to be good as well.

Fed's "NA delivery goal" sources have been pretty accurate in the past, plus the lack of price cuts and the early stopping of EU and CN ships indicated strong Q1 demand as well.

This strongly suggests that 100k Q1 deliveries and GAAP profits are a good possibility now - with earlier S&P 500 inclusion if they post at least $100m in Q1 profits.

I don't think any of the shorts expected a good Q1, and they might now be in a world of hurt...

Might explain why the price of post-April-4 options series exploded today? (April 3 is the probable release date of the Q1 production and deliveries report.)

 

[StealthP3D]

He's calling a $17.23 SP rise EOM to EOM refreshing? Isn't he short on TSLA?
I suppose losing less than usual is nice?

Yes. I think he meant there were some bright spots to the month of January for a TSLA short. TSLA only gaining $17 for the whole month was one of them. What I find funnier than sugar is that he couldn't take advantage of any of this to any significant degree. You are hearing the last gasping comments from someone in the throes of becoming a nobody. If CNBC ever has him back on it will only be for entertainment purposes.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

In case this is relevant for other Europeans. I found this list at etf.com listing ETFs with TSLA holdings. All the largest ones are based in the US:

TSLA

I'm still looking for Euro based (Mutual) Funds with lots of TSLA...

Since January 2018 there are rules that in the EU you can't buy certain (all?) US/Canadian ETFs in the EU. My brookerage in Sweden still lists them and if you owned them before 2018 you can keep them and sell them but once you have sold you can't buy them again.

So for example I can see the ARK funds but the buy button is greyed out.

Don't know the reason.

 

[The Accountant]

Yes, it usually does feel "refreshing" to get an enema. Especially one that lasts for a full week!

Now Mark Spiegel should shut up and watch Tesla do what Tesla does better than anyone. He has been predicting that 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021 would be the onslaught of Tesla killers since at least 2017!

Mark Spiegel making predictions again?
Below was his 2019 prediction.

 

[StealthP3D]

Well played on your @ 637 buy.
My buy @ 633 is a 1-2 week swing trade. Waiting for 50-70 point pop.
I will use the gain to average down the 200 shrs I bought @ 676 last Thursday.

OTOH, I may hold and sell b4 Q1 ER. tsla has a habit of running right up to ER day (earnings play).

I presume you are trading in a tax-deferred account? Otherwise, it makes about as much sense as cutting off your arm because you have tennis elbow.

 

[StealthP3D]

Well played on your @ 637 buy.
My buy @ 633 is a 1-2 week swing trade. Waiting for 50-70 point pop.
I will use the gain to average down the 200 shrs I bought @ 676 last Thursday.

Did you sell following your preliminary plan? Because a 50-75 point pop would mean $683 - $703. TSLA currently trading at $725.

 

[ReflexFunds]

Has anyone else pointed this out? If so, I missed it:

https://electrek.co/2020/03/02/tesla-cybertruck-boosting-sales-momentum-tax-credit/

------------
Furthermore, the end of the incentive has pushed many buyers to place orders last year, which boosted sales last quarter and contributed to an anticipated slow down in deliveries in Q1 2020.

However, sources familiar with Tesla’s US sales told Electrek that the automaker’s management has given its North American sales team roughly the same delivery goal as the previous quarter.

They are reporting strong demand in the first quarter and sources attribute it, at least partly, to the Cybertruck unveiling in November of last year.
------------

ht/Reflex Research

This would explain why they seem to have stopped sending more RO-ROs,this quarter, accepting longer wait times in Europe and China (the latter of course due to GF3 as well).

Big Q1 deliveries leak:

Tesla Cybertruck is already boosting sales, keeping momentum without tax credit - Electrek

"However, sources familiar with Tesla’s US sales told Electrek that the automaker’s management has given its North American sales team roughly the same delivery goal as the previous quarter."

"They are reporting strong demand in the first quarter and sources attribute it, at least partly, to the Cybertruck unveiling in November of last year."​

That's ... very bullish, given that China is likely going to be good as well.

Fed's "NA delivery goal" sources have been pretty accurate in the past, plus the lack of price cuts and the early stopping of EU and CN ships indicated strong Q1 demand as well.

This strongly suggests that 100k Q1 deliveries and GAAP profits are a good possibility now - with earlier S&P 500 inclusion if they post at least $100m in Q1 profits.

Might explain why the price of post-April-4 options series exploded today?

Asia sales are largely dependent on cell supply ramp at GF3 and supply chain disruption from the virus, but there is potential for deliveries to be up significantly QoQ particularly if the second shift was added in February as rumoured.

Europe first month sales were down 0.2k to 2k QoQ (left over/delayed prior Q inventory) while new ships are down 1 to 7 and loading days down 21% QoQ. Most EU countries aside from Holland (which had large tax pull forward to Q4) would like be up QoQ with these numbers.

So flat deliveries in North America should allow 105k plus deliveries in Q1 with upside depending on GF3.

 

[Fact Checking]

Asia sales are largely dependent on cell supply ramp at GF3 and supply chain disruption from the virus, but there is potential for deliveries to be up significantly QoQ particularly if the second shift was added in February as rumoured.

This wasn't just "rumored", the Chinese state TV report about the GF3 restart specifically stated that Tesla hired 600 additional workers.

Edit:

This is what the report said (similar translation by two Twitter users):

• "Tesla started working since Feb 10.
• All lines are fully working.
• 2,000 workers (600 newly employed).
• The government provides 10,000 masks, more than 600 rooms provided by the government for workers.
• Moreover, all companies providing essential materials to Tesla are also working."

 

[RobbyJ]

Since January 2018 there are rules that in the EU you can't buy certain (all?) US/Canadian ETFs in the EU. My brookerage in Sweden still lists them and if you owned them before 2018 you can keep them and sell them but once you have sold you can't buy them again.

So for example I can see the ARK funds but the buy button is greyed out.

Don't know the reason.

I can comment on the inability to buy ark funds in EU. ARK has not released any key information documents (KID) for their funds. They are mandatory for them to be allowed to be bought in EU. You can still sell if you had it before the new rules.

I contacted ARK to verify, and they acknowledged the issue. Quote from their response:
"ARK is aware of the new EU requirements. Currently, we do not have a KIID, however, we are working with outside counsel to analyze European regulation. We will update you when we’ve come to a resolution. We are sorry for the inconvenience and hope to provide more clarity to European investors in the near future."
Hope this clarifies things a bit for you.

 

[ZeApelido]

No, not really. It is a requirement that is rarely enforced.
I have been driving almost 2 years without a license plate in the front. Most Model 3s are the same. The front license plate doesn't look good, and we Californians are vain about looks!

Unfortunately I learned the hard way with a $100 ticket.

Do not go to SF with your Tesla and park so license plate is easy to see.

not go to SF with your Tesla.

Do not go to SF.

 

[Motor Mouth]

Unfortunately I learned the hard way with a $100 ticket.

Do not go to SF with your Tesla and park so license plate is easy to see.

not go to SF with your Tesla.

Do not go to SF.

As a SF resident, I approve this message.

 

[gtrplyr1]

Bought another 70 shares this morning to add to our long position. It might easily go back down with some more coronavirus news but I just couldn't resist what looked like a bargain .... it may not work out in the short term but once again .... we can talk in 3 years!

Go TSLA.

Looking forward to getting our Y in the next few months .... I think the reviews, which should come out this month, will be stellar and provide a nice boost to SP. This Y is cheaper than many of it's ICE equivalents and will blow them away on many metrics.

Cheers to the longs.

 

[Rammstein]

I’m currently at the Calgary delivery and service Center. They say they are really busy with delivering all 3 models with the end of quarter push. Everybody seems to be in a good mood. Also, I have done a few Uber trips with my MP3 and many people are impressed with my car. Most of the people have never been in a Tesla before. The only annoying/funny part are people confused by the stupid door handles and button to get in and out of the Model 3.