Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

Talking about wavey.

Just got my FSD computer upgrade in central FL. Sales representative said no deliveries as of right now and expecting an end of quarter push like always.

 

[ggies07]

So I just finished watching Jeff Dahn's new lecture and I was going to share it on another site and it just became private....crazy!

 

[Glamisduner]

I think I made a bobo. Saw the market crashing and pulled out about 10 shares at around $636. Then a couple hours later trump announced lowered rates and it shot back up. Now I'd be losing $100 per share if I go back in now, but I'm also worried it won't stay up with the pandemic just getting started (potentially).

 

[Nocturnal]

So I had to look up "Los Angeles MDR":

Inside Tesla's Marina Del Rey facility where Model 3 deliveries are taking place​

Any idea how this TSLAQ guy is counting deliveries? Webcam? Foot traffic? Any reliability or bias info on him?

Since he is a TSLAQ I have to assume he is counting using his fingers.

I think I made a bobo. Saw the market crashing and pulled out about 10 shares at around $636. Then a couple hours later trump announced lowered rates and it shot back up. Now I'd be losing $100 per share if I go back in now, but I'm also worried it won't stay up with the pandemic just getting started (potentially).

I was hoping to buy a few more today but RH is still broken. IMO, in that type of situation you can use 50% of your intended buy at today's price, and save 50% for next week in case it drops again (which is likely, or at least the broader market drop is likely). ​

 

[Nurkbonis]

I hadn't watched it yet, but read a short summary. I wondered if the video would get taken down. Sure enough, it did... Battery investor day can't come soon enough.

So I just finished watching Jeff Dahn's new lecture and I was going to share it on another site and it just became private....crazy!

 

[Fact Checking]

All RBH users been locked out since this morning. Expect more buying if and when this pallet of sod is fixed.

Yeah, /r/wallstreetbets members are ... vivid for missing out on the rally today:

Robinhood Crash Megathread : wallstreetbets​

Unfortunately I cannot quote their responses here, you'll have to click yourself.

 

[thait84]

I think I made a bobo. Saw the market crashing and pulled out about 10 shares at around $636. Then a couple hours later trump announced lowered rates and it shot back up. Now I'd be losing $100 per share if I go back in now, but I'm also worried it won't stay up with the pandemic just getting started (potentially).

Short term movements are going to stress you out. You really should just make sure you believe in the company long term and buy it periodically and forget about it. All the people trying to day trade and optimize with calls and puts where you lose thousands of dollars on minuscule swings are going to die early (or go broke) from all that stress. I'm sure all the screenshots of people with massive paper gains is great, but for every person that wins a jackpot, plenty of people have lost their money chasing that same dream.

 

[Thekiwi]

General Motors to give in-depth look at its electric vehicle plans
General Motors to provide most in-depth look yet at its all-electric vehicle plans in bid to convince Wall Street it can take on Tesla

”During an “EV Day” on Wednesday, the Detroit automaker will give a comprehensive and unprecedented look at its all-electric vehicle plans as well as show attendees roughly a dozen upcoming products, according to two people familiar with the event. It is typically considered an unusual move for an automaker to show investors so many products.”

 

[Glamisduner]

Short term movements are going to stress you out. You really should just make sure you believe in the company long term and buy it periodically and forget about it. All the people trying to day trade and optimize with calls and puts where you lose thousands of dollars on minuscule swings are going to die early (or go broke) from all that stress. I'm sure all the screenshots of people with massive paper gains is great, but for every person that wins a jackpot, plenty of people have lost their money chasing that same dream.

I hear you but a 30% drop isn't a minuscule swing IMO. I'm also on RH so I guess I can't really do anything anyways.

 

[TSLA Pilot]

Highly recommend.

Another idea that haven't been properly digested is this:

Effectively means - that tesla cars (with the new to be announced chemistry) can double as decentralized Hornsdale batteries.

Hornsdale big battery doubles savings to consumers, and keeps lights on | RenewEconomy
"Neoen on Friday released a report by energy consultancy Aurecon on the Hornsdale Power Reserve – which at 100MW and 129MWh remains the biggest lithium-ion battery in the world – and found that the money it saved consumers in 2019 jumped to $116 million, from $40 million in 2018."

Assuming 70kwh/car - that's equivalent to 1843 cars pr Hornsdale battery.
Well if the Hornsdale battery could save customers 116m$ in 2019.... and it takes 1843 cars to equal a decentralized Hornsdale battery... well, you do the math.

Let's just say - I'm excited for battery day.

Wow, what a find.

We are all in your debt.

Watched the full video. Atrocious quality and difficult to listen to, but slides were essential; jaw-dropping.

Only because I have learned so much from others on this forum, I really must stomp my feet on this: it is a "must-watch" for all serious TSLA investors. It likely explains why Elon stated the following during the last conf call:

Joseph Osha -- JMP Securities -- Analyst

Further to the conversation around the cell technology, just wondering if you can comment on what the plans are for the Maxwell technology that you acquired here as a capacitor or dry cell or what have you. Thanks.

Elon Musk -- Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer

Well, like I said, we're going to talk about this in Battery Day, which is probably April. And then a lot of these questions will be answered. I think it's going to be a very compelling story that we have to present. I think it's going to actually blow people's minds. It blows my mind, and I know it. So it's going to be pretty cool.

Source:

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Q4 2019 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Fool

Buckle up boys and girls; I think we're going for one Hell of ride in April

The only questions is: LEAPS, regular calls, or just plain old-fashioned shares?

 

[Rammstein]

I think I made a bobo. Saw the market crashing and pulled out about 10 shares at around $636. Then a couple hours later trump announced lowered rates and it shot back up. Now I'd be losing $100 per share if I go back in now, but I'm also worried it won't stay up with the pandemic just getting started (potentially).

This is why it’s usually a good idea to hold most of your shares long term. Depending on your risk tolerance you could by it all back now, by half back, or wait out this stupid virus. If all signs look good for Q1 you might want to buy back in before delivery numbers are published.

 

[LN1_Casey]

So I had to look up "Los Angeles MDR":

Inside Tesla's Marina Del Rey facility where Model 3 deliveries are taking place​

Any idea how this TSLAQ guy is counting deliveries? Webcam? Foot traffic? Any reliability or bias info on him?

Is there history of this account being TSLAQ? It seems fairly bullish from the numbers and statement about it.

 

[Compton]

I think I made a bobo. Saw the market crashing and pulled out about 10 shares at around $636. Then a couple hours later trump announced lowered rates and it shot back up. Now I'd be losing $100 per share if I go back in now, but I'm also worried it won't stay up with the pandemic just getting started (potentially).

"Buy and hold with no margin" would probably yield the best profit and least stress for most investors without considerable experience in the field. I've been buying and and holding since 2016, not single share sold. As long as the basic growth story doesn't change, the short term SP price can go up, down or dance a little waltz for all I care.

I actively avoid looking at the ticker because it's wasted time for me. It's hard for me to comprehend that some here seem to be glued to the ticker month after month, even year after year I do get sad by all the FUD though.

It's an old story but probably worth repeating sometimes for new members/investors stressing over the volatility of the stock.

 

[Thekiwi]

Wow, what a find.

We are all in your debt.

Watched the full video. Atrocious quality and difficult to listen to, but slides were essential; jaw-dropping.

Only because I have learned so much from others on this forum, I really must stomp my feet on this: it is a "must-watch" for all serious TSLA investors. It likely explains why Elon stated the following during the last conf call:

Joseph Osha -- JMP Securities -- Analyst

Further to the conversation around the cell technology, just wondering if you can comment on what the plans are for the Maxwell technology that you acquired here as a capacitor or dry cell or what have you. Thanks.

Elon Musk -- Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer

Well, like I said, we're going to talk about this in Battery Day, which is probably April. And then a lot of these questions will be answered. I think it's going to be a very compelling story that we have to present. I think it's going to actually blow people's minds. It blows my mind, and I know it. So it's going to be pretty cool.

Source:

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Q4 2019 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Fool

Buckle up boys and girls; I think we're going for one Hell of ride in April

The only questions is: LEAPS, regular calls, or just plain old-fashioned shares?

link is dead. Can you summarize in a sentence or two the “mind blowing” part?

 

[Ipe]

I think I made a bobo. Saw the market crashing and pulled out about 10 shares at around $636. Then a couple hours later trump announced lowered rates and it shot back up. Now I'd be losing $100 per share if I go back in now, but I'm also worried it won't stay up with the pandemic just getting started (potentially).

Don’t worry, I bought them. Your money is in safe hands now.

 

[kengchang]

link is dead. Can you summarize in a sentence or two the “mind blowing” part?

Jeff Dahn (Tesla Battery Research) Talking Lithium Battery Additives : electricvehicles


Just finished the video. In their research they found additives needed for 1 million miles batteries lasting thousands of cycles, some up to 8000 but it turned out it was patented and would have made them really expensive due royalties. They then researched an alternative and claim to have found it. Of note is that charging speed will not be increased beyond one hour for a full charge, not if maintaining the lifetime is important. It’s not the 5 minutes to charge and amazing energy density and safety like solid state cells but it’s a very good chemistry until then and it could be very valuable for stationary energy storage.

An interesting remark is that it’s still not understood why certain additives work much better than others or more puzzling why some by themselves are detrimental to the battery but when combined with something else they increase the cycle life even more, modeling the physics and experimental measuring will help improve the batteries more once the reasons are better known, right now it’s trial and error and they’re not joking.

 

[Nocturnal]

Wow, what a find.

We are all in your debt.

Watched the full video. Atrocious quality and difficult to listen to, but slides were essential; jaw-dropping.

So originally they expected a 3 year payoff, if year 2 doubled the returns then it went down to a 2 year payoff right? That's insane. If Tesla announces a realistic plan to get to X terawatt hours of battery construction on battery day, the stock will blow up if people are listening. If not then that gives us more time to leverage up.

What's that thing Kathy Woods is always yelling about? Riding the declining cost curve of batteries?

 

[Cupidchild]

Well played on your @ 637 buy.
My buy @ 633 is a 1-2 week swing trade. Waiting for 50-70 point pop.
I will use the gain to average down the 200 shrs I bought @ 676 last Thursday.

OTOH, I may hold and sell b4 Q1 ER. tsla has a habit of running right up to ER day (earnings play).

Q1 ER, is going to be interesting. Expectation is low, so perhaps they can surprise expectation by number boost from GF3 production and Model Y.
Is Q1 earning date set yet? It will be interesting if it will be before or after Battery Day.
But I like your thoughts on SP running right up to ER day.

 

[lklundin]

You people count yourselves lucky. here in merry old England, you need a front plate. if you didn't have one, you would probably be chased by 10 police cars and a helicopter.
It sucks because I love the model 3 front, and think the front plate totally ruins it.

I like the look of my Model 3 with its semi-personalized license plates from all angles
- especially when it is charging for free, like here at Roskilde Airport (RKE).

 

[Nocturnal]

Jeff Dahn (Tesla Battery Research) Talking Lithium Battery Additives : electricvehicles


Just finished the video. In their research they found additives needed for 1 million miles batteries lasting thousands of cycles, some up to 8000 but it turned out it was patented and would have made them really expensive due royalties. They then researched an alternative and claim to have found it. Of note is that charging speed will not be increased beyond one hour for a full charge, not if maintaining the lifetime is important. It’s not the 5 minutes to charge and amazing energy density and safety like solid state cells but it’s a very good chemistry until then and it could be very valuable for stationary energy storage.

An interesting remark is that it’s still not understood why certain additives work much better than others or more puzzling why some by themselves are detrimental to the battery but when combined with something else they increase the cycle life even more, modeling the physics and experimental measuring will help improve the batteries more once the reasons are better known, right now it’s trial and error and they’re not joking.

That has me thinking, I wonder what the feasibility is to use two different chemistries in the same vehicle? Say you have 100kWh total to use. Would it make sense to half with the super stable but slow charging chemistry and the other half with a faster charging chemistry? The use case would be something like
1. Use slow charging as the workhorse cells in our daily usage.
2. For road trips, be able to grab say 150 miles of range in 5 minutes, and if you have a longer stop then it will also top off the "slow" batteries.

Just thinking out loud. It would almost be a less extreme version of super capacitors in conjunction with lithium batteries.