Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[KarenRei]

Asia sales are largely dependent on cell supply ramp at GF3 and supply chain disruption from the virus, but there is potential for deliveries to be up significantly QoQ particularly if the second shift was added in February as rumoured.

Europe first month sales were down 0.2k to 2k QoQ (left over/delayed prior Q inventory) while new ships are down 1 to 7 and loading days down 21% QoQ. Most EU countries aside from Holland (which had large tax pull forward to Q4) would like be up QoQ with these numbers.

So flat deliveries in North America should allow 105k plus deliveries in Q1 with upside depending on GF3.

Note that EU would have had 8 ships had Tesla not decided to send the last ship of the quarter to China. China gets sales from GF3 production (I estimate at 11-12k median case - 2,5k January (~800/wk when open), 2k February (~500/wk x2 + ~1k/wk x 1), 7k March (1,6k/wk)), plus two ships (perhaps 5k cars), for a total of 16,5k. I'm trying to remember China for Q4... something like 11,5k? So +5k in this scenario.

Non-China APAC received the same number of RO-ROs as Q4 (3x). Destinations are different, though - none to Japan, but one to Taiwan this time (anyone know how Taiwan was supplied previously? Containers straight from Fremont, or reshipped from elsewhere in APAC?). Japan can be presumed to be containers this quarter. Overall container shipping this quarter compared to Q4 is an unknown, but wouldn't be surprised if it's up slightly.

One can expect Europe to be very "wavey" this quarter, due to the later start and some shipping delays early on (thankfully the delays were early on and not late in the quarter!). Some various metrics to compare the amount EU shipping is down:

• Loss of 1 EU ship normally means about 3-3,5k down.
• But Q4 deliveries averaged 4,5k per ship, in part because, and probably in part because of higher-than-average per-ship loading. But also in part due to greater residual inventory.
• 21% would be 6,2k down.
• Residual inventory was about 2k higher.

Going with 7k down, that'd be 28,5k for Europe.

If the US is similar to Q4, overall we're pretty flat, perhaps a marginal decline (Q4 was 120k). ASPs should be pretty flat as well.

For comparison: Factset predicts revenues of 6,67B, down from 7,4B in Q4:

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Analyst Ratings, Estimates & Forecasts - Yahoo Finance

E.g., 90% as many deliveries. If non-automotive revenue can be assumed to track automotive, and if Factset also assumes flat ASPs, their numbers correspond to 101k deliveries, down 19k.

 

[StealthP3D]

Do not go to SF with your Tesla and park so license plate is easy to see.

not go to SF with your Tesla.

Do not go to SF.

Not even if you left your heart there?

 

[jerry33]

Not even if you left your heart there?

That's what happens when you are involved in an accident and you're an organ donor.

 

[samppa]

In case this is relevant for other Europeans. I found this list at etf.com listing ETFs with TSLA holdings. All the largest ones are based in the US:

TSLA

I'm still looking for Euro based (Mutual) Funds with lots of TSLA...

IDRV has tsla as top holding. Also has toyota which is a bit hard to see..

 

[johnnybgood888]

Tesla Registrations Plunge in Two of Musk’s Top European Markets

Right on cue from Bloomberg. So transparent it's not even funny anymore. No context added whatsoever.

 

[Nocturnal]

The TSLA FB groups are hilarious. 3 weeks ago all you saw was "I hope it drops so I can buy!" Then last week it was "OMG, it's dropping, going to go to 400!". Now getting back to "oh man, I wanted it to dip so I could buy more."

I did not even mention walking by the homeless encampment where one fellow was swinging a 5 ft metal bar at another...

Meh. You get that in every city I've lived in. DC, Baltimore, Philly, even wholesome Kansas City.

I worked in SF for a while. I get why people like living there but you need a 6 figure income to live like a broke college kid. The location is amazing though, even though the weather is kinda crap personally. Such a short drive to wine country.

Tesla Registrations Plunge in Two of Musk’s Top European Markets

Right on cue from Bloomberg. So transparent it's not even funny anymore. No context added whatsoever.

Every GD quarter, same headlines. I'm pretty sure the journalists just pull up their old word doc and find/replace for the dates. ​

 

[dl003]

All RBH users been locked out since this morning. Expect more buying if and when this pallet of sod is fixed.

 

[Nocturnal]

All RBH users been locked out since this morning. Expect more buying if and when this pallet of sod is fixed.

Yup. They have just taught me that I need accounts on three different platforms. Vanguard is too slow but they hold my retirement accounts. If Robinhood isn't reliable I need a second option.

 

[samppa]

Since January 2018 there are rules that in the EU you can't buy certain (all?) US/Canadian ETFs in the EU. My brookerage in Sweden still lists them and if you owned them before 2018 you can keep them and sell them but once you have sold you can't buy them again.

So for example I can see the ARK funds but the buy button is greyed out.

Don't know the reason.

Mifid 2

 

[SpaceCash]

New HOD u better be HODLING

 

[Chunky Jr.]

I'm going to load up on a bunch of shares when it hits zero just like expert prognosticator Spiegel predicts

 

[Fact Checking]

I'm trying to remember China for Q4... something like 11,5k? So +5k in this scenario

This was @Troy's estimate for Q4, with the regional split:

If you add another 4k you'll get the Q4 deliveries of 112k and a good baseline for the regional numbers.

 

[LJS22]

This was @Troy's estimate for Q4, with the regional split:

View attachment 517134

If you add another 4k you'll get the Q4 deliveries of 112k and a good baseline for the regional numbers.

I prefer the low expectations followed by “omg! They killed it this quarter. Way above expectations!”

 

[Christine69420]

IDRV has tsla as top holding. Also has toyota which is a bit hard to see..

But since US based it's denied by the rules of a Norwegian ASK account. Only EU based stocks and funds allowed. But EU based funds may in turn hold US stocks. Yes I know - pretty weird rules...
Hence my search for this combo: EU based fund holding TSLA.

 

[Nocturnal]

I prefer the low expectations followed by “omg! They killed it this quarter. Way above expectations!”

There has been a big change with Tesla in that area over the past year. I get why Elon likes to overpromise. A guy like that has to be a crazy optimist or else he wouldn't get out of bed, but they seem to realize it's easier on everyone to publicly aim lower and still keep going hard behind closed doors.

 

[neezer]

I'm going to load up on a bunch of shares when it hits zero just like expert prognosticator Spiegel predicts

You would then enjoy INFINITE % gain, with a very high likelihood no member here could surpass that performance, making you instantly legendary. Perhaps this is what Speigel wants to do? Ensure his legacy as "legendary".

 

[kengchang]

Los Angeles MDR

 

[Fact Checking]

The only annoying/funny part are the stupid door handles and button to get in and out of the Model 3.

I've read a trick somewhere: the emergency open handle is apparently red in part, which is what attracts people - if that's painted or covered with tape people will find the button.

 

[ggr]

If it's a Cali car, it should have plates on the front. I don't see any, and thus I'd bet it's still manufacturer's plates, and not a personal car.

About half of cars in California don't put on front plates. For example, my profile photo.

 

[Fact Checking]

Los Angeles MDR
View attachment 517137

So I had to look up "Los Angeles MDR":

Inside Tesla's Marina Del Rey facility where Model 3 deliveries are taking place​

Any idea how this TSLAQ guy is counting deliveries? Webcam? Foot traffic? Any reliability or bias info on him?