Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Carl Raymond]

After-action Report: Wed, Mar 04, 2020: (Full-Day's Trading)

VWAP: $745.30
Volume: 15,050,277
Traded: $11,216,930,646.15 ($11.22 B)

Closing SP / VWAP: 100.56%
(TSLA closed ABOVE today's Avg SP)​

Comment: "Bears pounced on the Open then macros-multiplied capping all day long"

View attachment 518055

When I give your after action report a like Lodger, it’s because I like the comment, not the actual market action. Cheers.

Just thinking out loud...
If today was subdued because of GM, that’s a bit ridiculous. Legacy auto has been caught sooo flat footed - no announcement is going to help them bridge the gap. I think jaws are still agape after China GF went from mud to output in under a year. Berlin is salt into that wound. We’re watching the competition scramble now for relevance, for existence. Just waiting for the Giga Texas announcement. That will provide three data points, and it will then be clear that Tesla are accelerating - the gap widening.
I think it was primarily GF3 that sparked the stock surge. The penny dropped that the race was won.

 

[scaesare]

Re MCU1 failures: this is only a problem for certain MCU1s in a specific VIN range. No MCU1 replacements purchased recently (and even manufactured BEFORE a certain VIN range) have the eMMC problem. I know this for a fact from an experienced long-term Tesla employee who would know.

Tying this to short term movements, these options add $$ for Q1. I like .

So I have an early '12 that was subject to this failure... I'm not aware of cars older than mine immune....

 

[Ameliorate]

When I give your after action report a like Lodger, it’s because I like the comment, not the actual market action. Cheers.

Just thinking out loud...
If today was subdued because of GM, that’s a bit ridiculous. Legacy auto has been caught sooo flat footed - no announcement is going to help them bridge the gap. I think jaws are still agape after China GF went from mud to output in under a year. Berlin is salt into that wound. We’re watching the competition scramble now for relevance, for existence. Just waiting for the Giga Texas announcement. That will provide three data points, and it will then be clear that Tesla are accelerating - the gap widening.
I think it was primarily GF3 that sparked the stock surge. The penny dropped that the race was won.

I have no idea what happened today, I was a bit disappointed. Hard to believe GM had much to do with it, they under performed the indexes and are mildly over their daily trading average. If the market thought they could actually compete with Tesla I'd expect at least a 10%+ on a macro day like today. Maybe one of those cases where we hear the news a day or two later?

 

[EinSV]

When I give your after action report a like Lodger, it’s because I like the comment, not the actual market action. Cheers.

Just thinking out loud...
If today was subdued because of GM, that’s a bit ridiculous. Legacy auto has been caught sooo flat footed - no announcement is going to help them bridge the gap. I think jaws are still agape after China GF went from mud to output in under a year. Berlin is salt into that wound. We’re watching the competition scramble now for relevance, for existence. Just waiting for the Giga Texas announcement. That will provide three data points, and it will then be clear that Tesla are accelerating - the gap widening.
I think it was primarily GF3 that sparked the stock surge. The penny dropped that the race was won.

Would add that even in the relatively short term, I don't think the market has let it soak in that a little more than a year from now Tesla will likely have 3 factories on 3 continents churning out Model Ys.

(While it revolutionizes lithium-ion cell production and longevity, builds GF Texas, expands M3 production in Shanghai, begins deliveries of Semi, ramps solar roof, rolls out FSD functionality, announces more Gigafactories, etc. etc.)

 

[EVNow]

@EVNow I think you are underestimating how much work can now be done remotely. Technology is making a huge impact.

Oh yes - as someone who works a lot from home, I do understand.

I agree there will be short term impacts to supply chain and manufacturing but that could be overcome by how quickly we can get back on our feet by leveraging technology.

I don't know - what people do when factories and jobs that can't be done remotely start getting affected. What will Tesla do - for eg., if they find people in Fremont or Nevada with infections. What about service centers or solar ?

This is a problem for every industry and every business - though travel & hospitality are the hardest hit.

 

[CaliBear1]

I figured out where the BMW designers found their inspiration...

View attachment 517737

View attachment 517738

A perfect ride for Tellarites. OK, I'm dating myself!

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

Got a VIN about 2 weeks ago.
VIN shows up as registered in our transport department's license plate lookup as of... Monday I think?
Waiting on the call to set up a delivery date.

A coworker got his on the first day. He mentioned that there were a lot of minor hiccups in the delivery process, which is unsurprising for the first day. He mentioned that the car's great, though he does have one bug where occasionally the window will roll down on its own. I suggested he make a service appointment, but he wants to see if they can remote diagnose it, so he's waiting for it to happen again so he can record the time. Fit and finish he seemed quite happy with; his only complaint was (after inspecting everything closely) he found one place that was a couple millimeters off flush.

Whenever I check out the delivery centre, I often look at the cars outside up close. Quality IMHO looks great. I've seen again a couple places where there might be something a millimeter or two out of alignment, but it boggles the mind that anyone would nitpick something like that (esp. since it can be adjusted). The paint is what I'm most impressed with; I haven't seen a single flaw. And when I say "flaw" I don't just mean paint chips or stuff like that; I hold up a flashlight from the side to look for any imperfections (swirl marks, etc) in the clear coat. Nothing - just perfection. And the more I look at the paint close up, the more I love it; they have such lovely paint!

I think when you pick up your car, the sales rep should summon it from a line of cars to where you’re standing. That way it feels like the car chose you.

 

[adiggs]

This administration considered forcing utilities to buy coal as a national security issue. And don't forget the president's threat to force US companies out of China. Normally you are absolutely right but an unchecked authoritarian leader might simply nationalize an industry based upon national security. I have no confidence that anyone would tell him no.

I do have some doubts about the current SCOTUS. This one, that SCOTUS would go along with nationalizing private businesses, isn't one of them.

 

[Bet TSLA]

I don't like Apple land. Nope not for me.

You live in California. That *is* Apple land. Pay high taxes and get nice things. Pretending that high taxes get you nothing is like pretending that paying extra for a Tesla doesn't get you supercharging and autopilot.

 

[KSilver2000]

As usual Australia has the perfect solution to covid-19, it will only be a matter of time before the rest of the world follows our excellent lead..

Coronavirus COVID-19: Why is everyone buying toilet paper? - ABC Life

But there is a lesson on supply and demand here...

I saw these stories and I'm like "yeah right I'm ignoring that" .....

My wife comes home yesterday, "They are out of toilet paper at X and Y....."

Sure enough I visit my local supermarket today and the shelf is stripped bare....

I know when toilet paper is selling on EBay for $20 per roll, we will have to buy, and the wife will be looking at me....

This is what happens when demand outstrips supply, it is gold rush....

At least we have finally found an investment that might out perform Tesla over the short term..

You guys are really behind the times if this is something that’s just happening.

As I mentioned in some previous posts, my local warehouse stores are running out of not just toilet paper, but ALL paper products (tissue, paper towels, toilet paper), hand sanitizers, and water, every time a new shipment comes in. Most recent items that are flying off the shelves now are cold symptom relief OTC medicines, flour, and rice.

 

[Bet TSLA]

The incremental benefit to Track Mode V2 is not increasing the revenue or margin for M3.

Of course not. They're just refining the software in preparation for the Plaid Model S and the new Roadster.

 

[EVCollies]

Isn't that the same LG that can't produce enough batteries for the e-Tron?

Or given the > 1,000 e-trons currently listed on cars.com Audi built a dud.

Screen Shot 2020-03-01 At 1.15.49 PM

• EVCollies
• Mar 4, 2020

 

[LN1_Casey]

I’m baffled by the OEM’s choice to build electric versions of their brands that are most synonymous with gas guzzling. Fans of Mustang, Cadillac and Hummer are surely least likely to care about EV’s and their benefits. I can’t imagine anyone thinking I’d love to get a Hummer if only they made an electric version. I’d put the addressable market at around 14 people, only those with the most severe of cognitive dissonance.

I actually know a guy who will be buying the E Hummer. His plan had been to get the Model 3, but then the Hummer was announced. He currently drives an H3, IN GREECE, so he, uh, is willing to make accommodations for the limits.

My guess is there will be more than a handful of people, but not by much. Hummers were never really mass market cars, and typically sold in low numbers.

 

[Open Interest]

Only stocks that pay dividends don't have this happen because the shorts don't want to pay the dividends. It still happens to AAPL, and it will continue to happen to TSLA. Thing is that every time TSLA performs well, the highs increase--even if the stock price is nothing like fair valuation. It will still happen when TSLA is $6,000.

But AAPL does pay a dividend, and it remains a heavily shorted stock.

 

[Causalien]

As usual Australia has the perfect solution to covid-19, it will only be a matter of time before the rest of the world follows our excellent lead..

Coronavirus COVID-19: Why is everyone buying toilet paper? - ABC Life

But there is a lesson on supply and demand here...

I saw these stories and I'm like "yeah right I'm ignoring that" .....

My wife comes home yesterday, "They are out of toilet paper at X and Y....."

Sure enough I visit my local supermarket today and the shelf is stripped bare....

I know when toilet paper is selling on EBay for $20 per roll, we will have to buy, and the wife will be looking at me....

This is what happens when demand outstrips supply, it is gold rush....

At least we have finally found an investment that might out perform Tesla over the short term..

I always use tp as SHTF indicator. It's one of those really nice to have things when you have to hunker down. But I don't see why ppl'd want to buyout the crappy types.

Even in wuhan, the basics stuff are still there, but you do run out of nice stuff. And the act of shopping itself becomes very difficult.

The idea of hoarding is to be able to last 2 months without getting out. And a lot of opportunists want to be able to sell you these supplies at 10x markup during quarantine.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Just thinking out loud... If today was subdued because of GM, that’s a bit ridiculous.

Indeed, and it means tomorrow will be a better day because the Market has a poor memory.

"In the Street of the blind, the one-eyed man is the Guiding Light." ​

Cheers!

 

[Fact Checking]

Or given the > 1,000 e-trons currently listed on cars.com Audi built a dud.

Screen Shot 2020-03-01 At 1.15.49 PM

• EVCollies
• Mar 4, 2020

Is there a way to determine the number of E-tron's sold by dissatisfied owners at low mileage, versus being new cars listed by dealerships? Or is the fact that they are listed by dealerships a sign of low current demand as well?

 

[hd-2]

Just looked through Nikola's investor deck (here for those interested) and it's nice to see the comparisons to TSLA in section IV (too bad it's "Market data as of February 28, 2020" ). Probably going to "diversify" a bit in Q2 and get some NKLA if it's close to the proposed $10/share. Anyone in VTIQ make a lot of money today?

 

[BenPrice]

I personally believe it’s a show, BUT it’s a show that one side needs to continue to do.


I’m betting on the people I hate the most, trust the least, to stimulus us for election purposes.

Just kidding I bought 150k of puts today.

I believe the house of cards will collapse.

Not advice

Bought nothing against tsla, mainly spy, Nike, Apple...those who need global to survive. Those who will be ravaged by the downturn I expect to occur.

I own 200 $260 March 31 spy puts, and about the same but April for Nike, Apple, amazon, and a few others.

I’ll never bet against Elon.

Never bet against Elon.

 

[thait84]

Just kidding I bought 150k of puts today.

I believe the house of cards will collapse.

Not advice

Bought nothing against tsla, mainly spy, Nike, Apple...those who need global to survive. Those who will be ravaged by the downturn I expect to occur.

I own 200 $260 March 31 spy puts, and about the same but April for Nike, Apple, amazon, and a few others.

I’ll never bet against Elon.

Never bet against Elon.

Not sure when the feds will stop printing money and propping everything up.