Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[tinm]

Wouldn’t they mean supply for cars, not of cars? That would make sense, as it is essential that cars keep running.

I hope your interpretation is the right one, but it seems like a stretch.

Given the Fremont factory is the 8,000,000-lb manufacturing gorilla in the Bay Area, why didn’t any reporters directly ask the officials, what about the Tesla factory? I can’t believe we’re still reading tea leaves and speculating hours after the announcement. Unless Tesla behind the scenes is still busy negotiating...

 

[jhm]

Seems appropriate.

Always appropriate.

 

[ZachF]

Given the Fremont factory is the 8,000,000-lb manufacturing gorilla in the Bay Area, why didn’t any reporters directly ask the officials, what about the Tesla factory? I can’t believe we’re still reading tea leaves and speculating hours after the announcement. Unless Tesla behind the scenes is still busy negotiating...

I would bet it costs far less money to supply all the workers in Fremont with tyvek biohazard suits than shutting down production...

 

[MikeC]

I'll have to take your word for it, as that Twitter feed appears to be off-limits to the public:

View attachment 522551

 

[Thekiwi]

The longer they shut down, the worse the working capital situation gets. Tesla may need another large cap / debt raise.

Not sure why people are voting this funny? Does no one understand how working capital works? And why Elon was so keen to minimize days of inventory?

 

[S3XY]

Yes, but what if stray cats can carry the virus?
And what if someone coughs out of a second-story window while I'm walking around the block?
And if there are viruses in the fear-mongering pot, and I quit stirring it, might it not come to a boil and release all the viruses?
And if I stay at home, what if other family members introduce the virus to my home?
And if I go to the park, what if there are infected people there who cough upwind of me?
And if I stop breathing, won't I just die anyway?
Maybe I should just commit suicide?
But then I couldn't panic about the virus anymore.

Some people just love to panic, a response that is counter-productive to dealing with a challenge in a logical and productive manner.

One might even say that it is stupid.

 

[abasile]

Considering that Tesla was one of few remaining big name companies in greater Silicon Valley area to not have announced a WFH, and the fact that Tesla keeps a very strict work attendance policy at the factory, I wouldn’t doubt Elon keeps the factory open as long as the authorities don’t come forcing them out.

Kind of hard to build cars from home...

Considering the high level of automation in the Fremont factory and the considerable physical separation between most workers, it seems to me that Tesla should be allowed to continue operating the factory with reasonable precautions.

Humanity's goal should be to limit the spread of C19 such that healthcare systems can keep up with the cases with a reasonable margin, nothing more. Trying to completely halt its propagation is a fool's errand. I'm concerned that the human cost of shutting down major segments of the global economy will be significantly worse than the effects of the virus itself. We have to find the right balance. It appears to me that closing important factories is a step too far.

 

[Bet TSLA]

This is the Alameda County order:
http://acphd.org/media/559658/health-officer-order-shelter-in-place-20200316.pdf

You'll notice that (no surprise) they left themselves lots of wiggle room:
In 7: "Widespread testing for COVID-19 is not yet available but is expected to increase in the coming days. This Order is necessary to slow the rate of spread and the Health Officer will re-evaluate it as further data becomes available."
In 9: "The Health Officer will continue to assess the quickly evolving situation and may modify or extend this Order, or issue additional Orders, related to COVID-19."

This pretty much means that news may lead them to change things. There's lots of news. I'm sure we'll see many clarifications over the next few days. If one of those clarifications sounds like: "We have determined that keeping the following facilities operational does not increase the rate of spread: xxx, yyy, zzz." I wouldn't be surprised at all.

As somebody who lives in Santa Clara County, I'm subject to an identical order and I've read it carefully. I see enough leeway for reasonable activity consonant with keeping social interaction to a minimum.

At the moment I'm still intending to go to Los Angeles to get my son, who is being told that his next quarter at UCLA will be done on-line. He'd rather hang out at our house than pay rent to live down there for no good reason. And being told to stay home and see nobody and is pretty much what a mathematician does even without being told, right? I'm going to drive down in my Model S, interact with nobody, and come back the same day. Simple. Although, of course, subject to disruption in unusual circumstances.

 

[Maitri982]

Watch for the anti-malaria drug and HIV drugs to be possible cures. Then we're off again to the Stars.

 

[Bet TSLA]

We have to find the right balance. It appears to me that closing important factories is a step too far.

I'm expecting Elon to negotiate that they'll have no new cases of COVID-19, and if they do they'll take care of them in their own on-site hospital so they won't stress the local medical system. Soon Elon will have a new business venture (instant hospitals in a tent), with clear Mars applications.

 

[deffu]

But car delivery, maintenance and supply facilities are explicitly listed in the order as "essential business".



That might very well be so, but those are not listed in the order.

The very plain reading of the order includes "car parts" and "car supply" facilities - and you cannot supply cars if you cannot make them.

The Fremont factory is IMO fully within the letter and the spirit of the order.

(After-hours price action seems to agree, so far at least, TSLA up +2.2% currently.)

My understanding is this order is all about retail/service industry who directly interacts with customers on a daily basis. it doesnt say anything about factory/warehouse. My guess is it is probably up to negotiation between tesla and local gov. I doubt the gov wants to shut down local economy completely.
The flip side is a lot of maybe most blue collar workers at tesla factory dont live nearby in silicon valley. just way too expensive there. I know tesla provides shuttle service between the factory and Stockton area for its workers, which poses threats for spreading virus. but I think they can figure out some alternatives.

 

[ZachF]

But seriously though... Is making workers just wear tyvek suits dumb?

 

[Sudre]

Someone on Twitter from SF is claiming that the Tesla Factory in Fremont is still planning to stay open despite the shutdown. Lora Kolodny of course already reached out to her for a potential juicy anti-Tesla story.

Davina S on Twitter

No matter if the factory is open or closed it will cause a negative effect. It's either, evil Tesla for staying open, or bankwucy is eminent since they can't make cars. It just means I can buy more 2022 Calls and make another fortune.

 

[Cupidchild]

I could take on some additional TSLA shares for $276...
.

I'm not sure folks on this forum will let TSLA price go down to $276 level, before you can buy. lol

 

[Sudre]

Without a car in the US you don't get food, shelter or medicine which are all IMO essential elements and restricting it would make the situation worse not better.

Also the last thing I would want to do while trying to maintain a 6' distance from people is to cram elbow to elbow into a bus on my way to and from the grocery store because my delivery was canceled... for weeks.

 

[FrankSG]

I'm going to drive down in my Model S, interact with nobody, and come back the same day. Simple. Although, of course, subject to disruption in unusual circumstances.

HEPA Air Filter & Superchargers to the rescue!

 

[rxlawdude]

Couple of potential upsides in the next two weeks:

• The first Covid-19 vaccine tests are now underway. Approval of new vaccines is much faster than that of new medicines.

The problem is, the Phase I tests are in a limited number of healthy volunteers to establish safety, not efficacy. They plan to follow the Phase I volunteers for a year. Then, Phase II (actual patients or persons exposed) trials to establish efficacy and dosage (and safety). Then, Phase III trials with exposed persons given the dosage determined in earlier phases.

We're talking many months. The actual vaccine isn't imminent.

 

[Singuy]

The problem is, the Phase I tests are in a limited number of healthy volunteers to establish safety, not efficacy. They plan to follow the Phase I volunteers for a year. Then, Phase II (actual patients or persons exposed) trials to establish efficacy and dosage (and safety). Then, Phase III trials with exposed persons given the dosage determined in earlier phases.

We're talking many months. The actual vaccine isn't imminent.

Give vaccine to pts that's positive for COVID? What kind of crazy town trial is that? Vaccines are not cures, they are suppose to make people who were not exposed immune.

Also FDA fast track drugs all the time. I would say vaccine by end of summer/early fall for the winter months.

 

[rxlawdude]

Give vaccine to pts that's positive for COVID? What kind of crazy town trial is that? Vaccines are not cures, they are suppose to make people who were not exposed immune.

Also FDA fast track drugs all the time. I would say vaccine by end of summer/early fall for the winter months.

Um, it's a vaccine. You have to give it to the exposed to determine efficacy. It would be unethical to expose someone to the virus to determine efficacy.

I'm pretty familiar with FDA processes and timelines, and let's put it this way: if they rush a vaccine out without longitudinal testing, there's NFW I would take it nor recommend it to patients.

Finally, what does a vaccine ready by "winter months" have to do with novel coronavirus? Are you claiming it's a seasonal virus?

 

[adiggs]

I'm not sure folks on this forum will let TSLA price go down to $276 level, before you can buy. lol

I'm pretty sure they won't. In which case I collect the 1 month premium of about $24 per contract ($2400) and get to repeat the exercise next month.

This sort of option strategy - selling cash secured puts this far OTM (out of the money) - I think of it as a form of generating dividends. I use my knowledge of TSLA to give me confidence that if I got exercised, then I'd be happy it happened. But my first objective is to generate cash on a monthly basis, using cash I have on hand and haven't yet figured out what I want to do with it.

If this works as well as it sounds like it might, then I might just keep all that cash on hand! It certainly helps me sleep well at night.