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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Two year LEAPS are not bad.

Two year LEAPS are what I plan to buy too. Maybe Jan22 1000 or something.

On the other hand, Q1 is usually pretty bad and we have the virus going around too, it's highly likely that Q1 will be in the red, which will provide an even better opportunity to jump in. I'm still trying to figure out if analyst will give it a pass due to the market crash these last few weeks.
 
Jeebus, that would be both a horrific result and an amazing opportunity.
I underestimated just how contagious this virus is. It’s insane. Watching Boeing, the airlines and American oil industry collapse is truly amazing. There is zero appetite for risk in this market. I expect Tesla to be mispriced for at least a year. Tesla will survive of course, but the ride will be shakey. I still have a bit over 1,000 shares which I won’t let go of and am happy that I took a bunch of profit near the top, but I won’t buy here. Need to flush the degenerate gamblers out of this stock like we did with the shorts
 
FYI: Decision by Alameda County about whether Fremont can keep making cars looks imminent.

=====

March 17 (Reuters) - Local California officials on Tuesday were evaluating if and how Tesla Inc will be allowed to continue operating its main U.S. vehicle factory as the San Francisco Bay Area begins a three-week lockdown to rein in the spread of coronavirus.

A spokesman for California's Alameda County, where Tesla's Fremont factory is located, said the county was consulting its lawyers and health officials to evaluate the situation and provide an answer by the end of the day.

"Part of Tesla's operations might fall under an exemption in the (county's) order, but making cars and pumping them out at the end of the assembly line is another question," the spokesman said.


Tesla told employees in an email that the company and its suppliers would continue operations supporting the manufacturing and delivery of vehicles, a person who had see the email told Reuters.

On Monday, several media outlets reported the factory would be allowed to remain open, but a spokesman for Alameda County on Tuesday said there was no definitive answer yet on how to keep workers safe.

The spokesman said he was also looking to connect with a Tesla official on the matter.

Tesla did not respond to a request for comment on Tuesday.

Tesla's sole U.S. auto factory in Alameda County employs more than 10,000 workers and had annualized production of slightly over 415,000 units by the fourth quarter.

The county is one of six covered by a 'shelter in place' order from regional authorities that limits activity, travel and business functions to only the most essential, and advises people to stay home except for the most crucial reasons.

So far, automakers and their suppliers have avoided government-mandated production shutdowns in the United States.

The California governor's on Tuesday referred to California's Department of Public Health when asked whether the state planned to issue any shutdown guidelines for manufacturing facilities.

That department in a statement said more guidance would likely be issued in the days ahead, but did not provide further details.


In an internal memo on Monday, Tesla Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk told employees he was not aware of any who had tested positive for the virus, and urged them to stay home if they felt the "slightest bit ill or even uncomfortable," sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.

Bay Area counties had reported 273 coronavirus infections by Monday. California has reported six deaths from the COVID-19 respiratory illness caused by the virus. (Reporting by Tina Bellon in New York, additional reporting by Hyunjoo Jin in Seoul, Ann Maria Shibu in Bengaluru and Yilei Sun in Beijing; Editing by Cynthia Osterman, Paul Simao and David Gregorio)
 
Amazon is investing more than twice the Ford amount at $1.2B.

Amazon is doing just fine. Better than before actually.

Rivian has more than enough cash to launch Q4 2020 even if Ford doesn't transfer a single dollar to them.

BTW Neither Rivian itself, nor Amazon nor Ford call Rivian a Tesla killer.

It’ll be interesting to see how much cash Rivian spends on stores and service centers at product rollout. Oh, and on lawyers and lobbyists for all the state legislatures and dealer cartels that will make Rivian feel most unwelcome.

Right now, Rivian has:

Stores: 0
Service centers: 0
Chargers: 0

Ya, I’d say Rivian isn’t quite ready for “Tesla killer” status.
 
FYI: Decision by Alameda County about whether Fremont can keep making cars looks imminent.

=====

March 17 (Reuters) - Local California officials on Tuesday were evaluating if and how Tesla Inc will be allowed to continue operating its main U.S. vehicle factory as the San Francisco Bay Area begins a three-week lockdown to rein in the spread of coronavirus.

A spokesman for California's Alameda County, where Tesla's Fremont factory is located, said the county was consulting its lawyers and health officials to evaluate the situation and provide an answer by the end of the day.

"Part of Tesla's operations might fall under an exemption in the (county's) order, but making cars and pumping them out at the end of the assembly line is another question," the spokesman said.


Tesla told employees in an email that the company and its suppliers would continue operations supporting the manufacturing and delivery of vehicles, a person who had see the email told Reuters.

On Monday, several media outlets reported the factory would be allowed to remain open, but a spokesman for Alameda County on Tuesday said there was no definitive answer yet on how to keep workers safe.

The spokesman said he was also looking to connect with a Tesla official on the matter.

Tesla did not respond to a request for comment on Tuesday.

Tesla's sole U.S. auto factory in Alameda County employs more than 10,000 workers and had annualized production of slightly over 415,000 units by the fourth quarter.

The county is one of six covered by a 'shelter in place' order from regional authorities that limits activity, travel and business functions to only the most essential, and advises people to stay home except for the most crucial reasons.

So far, automakers and their suppliers have avoided government-mandated production shutdowns in the United States.

The California governor's on Tuesday referred to California's Department of Public Health when asked whether the state planned to issue any shutdown guidelines for manufacturing facilities.

That department in a statement said more guidance would likely be issued in the days ahead, but did not provide further details.


In an internal memo on Monday, Tesla Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk told employees he was not aware of any who had tested positive for the virus, and urged them to stay home if they felt the "slightest bit ill or even uncomfortable," sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.

Bay Area counties had reported 273 coronavirus infections by Monday. California has reported six deaths from the COVID-19 respiratory illness caused by the virus. (Reporting by Tina Bellon in New York, additional reporting by Hyunjoo Jin in Seoul, Ann Maria Shibu in Bengaluru and Yilei Sun in Beijing; Editing by Cynthia Osterman, Paul Simao and David Gregorio)

Of course. When county officials keep getting peppered with phone calls from “journalists” asking “How do you justify Tesla keeping its factory open?” and “Why does Tesla get special exemption?” they’re going to cave to the pressure.
 
Of course. When county officials keep getting peppered with phone calls from “journalists” asking “How do you justify Tesla keeping its factory open?” and “Why does Tesla get special exemption?” they’re going to cave to the pressure.
Another example of activist shorts doing damage to an American company.
 
FYI: Decision by Alameda County about whether Fremont can keep making cars looks imminent.

=====

March 17 (Reuters) - Local California officials on Tuesday were evaluating if and how Tesla Inc will be allowed to continue operating its main U.S. vehicle factory as the San Francisco Bay Area begins a three-week lockdown to rein in the spread of coronavirus.

A spokesman for California's Alameda County, where Tesla's Fremont factory is located, said the county was consulting its lawyers and health officials to evaluate the situation and provide an answer by the end of the day.

"Part of Tesla's operations might fall under an exemption in the (county's) order, but making cars and pumping them out at the end of the assembly line is another question," the spokesman said.


Tesla told employees in an email that the company and its suppliers would continue operations supporting the manufacturing and delivery of vehicles, a person who had see the email told Reuters.

On Monday, several media outlets reported the factory would be allowed to remain open, but a spokesman for Alameda County on Tuesday said there was no definitive answer yet on how to keep workers safe.

The spokesman said he was also looking to connect with a Tesla official on the matter.

Tesla did not respond to a request for comment on Tuesday.

Tesla's sole U.S. auto factory in Alameda County employs more than 10,000 workers and had annualized production of slightly over 415,000 units by the fourth quarter.

The county is one of six covered by a 'shelter in place' order from regional authorities that limits activity, travel and business functions to only the most essential, and advises people to stay home except for the most crucial reasons.

So far, automakers and their suppliers have avoided government-mandated production shutdowns in the United States.

The California governor's on Tuesday referred to California's Department of Public Health when asked whether the state planned to issue any shutdown guidelines for manufacturing facilities.

That department in a statement said more guidance would likely be issued in the days ahead, but did not provide further details.


In an internal memo on Monday, Tesla Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk told employees he was not aware of any who had tested positive for the virus, and urged them to stay home if they felt the "slightest bit ill or even uncomfortable," sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.

Bay Area counties had reported 273 coronavirus infections by Monday. California has reported six deaths from the COVID-19 respiratory illness caused by the virus. (Reporting by Tina Bellon in New York, additional reporting by Hyunjoo Jin in Seoul, Ann Maria Shibu in Bengaluru and Yilei Sun in Beijing; Editing by Cynthia Osterman, Paul Simao and David Gregorio)

It’s a good idea to link to the article.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-tesla-factory/california-considers-whether-tesla-factory-can-operate-in-coronavirus-shutdown-idUSKBN2140Q8

The quote about “The spokesman said he was also looking to connect with a Tesla official on the matter.” is disturbing. Tesla should have coordinated with County health officials sooner, if possible before yesterday’s order. Hopefully this is a miscommunication inside the health department and will be straightened out shortly.
 
Two year LEAPS are what I plan to buy too. Maybe Jan22 1000 or something.

On the other hand, Q1 is usually pretty bad and we have the virus going around too, it's highly likely that Q1 will be in the red, which will provide an even better opportunity to jump in. I'm still trying to figure out if analyst will give it a pass due to the market crash these last few weeks.
Recall also that Q1 last year for Tesla was crap with them beginning to ship M3s overseas, steep decline in US tax credit, and shift to Raven production, so even if the Fremont factory is forced to shutdown they're likely to still show a YoY increase. More concerning may be what % of cars already produced by Fremont do not get delivered in US & Europe...
 
Tesla is doing amazing things. Had it not been for what which cannot be named, TSLA would be well over $1000/sh by now. Despite it all, TSLA is doing amazingly well. We have a World pandemic on our hands and TSLA is where is was three months ago, mid December 2019. Amazing. The below graphs lead me to believe that Tesla is fairly priced in today's market, and that if the general concensus is downward, and IMHO it is, TSLA will track accordingly, but still maintain a large lead over tech guys and auto guys for the forseeable future. TSLA has dropped significantly in the past three weeks, however so has the overall markets, so please be cautious trying to catch a bottom. Even now, in North America the current events have been only an inconvenience by 99% of the population. What happens when it becomes more than an inconvenience? The road to economic wealth is long. Sometimes it makes sense to get out of the way to let a roaring frieght train pass before continuing on your journey. Stay healthy!

Comparison of TSLA one year share price with AAPL, AMZN, GM and F.
TSLA is outperforming the tech guys by +26% and auto guys by 97%.
Screen Shot 2020-03-17 at 5.36.29 PM.png


Comparison of TSLA three month share price with AAPL, AMZN, GM and F.
Still TSLA is outperforming the tech guys by +67% and the auto guys by 100%.
Screen Shot 2020-03-12 at 6.58.20 PM.png



Comparison of TSLA year to date share price with AAPL, AMZN, GM and F.
Still TSLA is outperforming the tech guys by +12% and the auto guys by 49%
Screen Shot 2020-03-17 at 5.35.59 PM.png
 
FYI: Decision by Alameda County about whether Fremont can keep making cars looks imminent.

=====

March 17 (Reuters) - Local California officials on Tuesday were evaluating if and how Tesla Inc will be allowed to continue operating its main U.S. vehicle factory as the San Francisco Bay Area begins a three-week lockdown to rein in the spread of coronavirus.

A spokesman for California's Alameda County, where Tesla's Fremont factory is located, said the county was consulting its lawyers and health officials to evaluate the situation and provide an answer by the end of the day.

"Part of Tesla's operations might fall under an exemption in the (county's) order, but making cars and pumping them out at the end of the assembly line is another question," the spokesman said.


Tesla told employees in an email that the company and its suppliers would continue operations supporting the manufacturing and delivery of vehicles, a person who had see the email told Reuters.

On Monday, several media outlets reported the factory would be allowed to remain open, but a spokesman for Alameda County on Tuesday said there was no definitive answer yet on how to keep workers safe.

The spokesman said he was also looking to connect with a Tesla official on the matter.

Tesla did not respond to a request for comment on Tuesday.

Tesla's sole U.S. auto factory in Alameda County employs more than 10,000 workers and had annualized production of slightly over 415,000 units by the fourth quarter.

The county is one of six covered by a 'shelter in place' order from regional authorities that limits activity, travel and business functions to only the most essential, and advises people to stay home except for the most crucial reasons.

So far, automakers and their suppliers have avoided government-mandated production shutdowns in the United States.

The California governor's on Tuesday referred to California's Department of Public Health when asked whether the state planned to issue any shutdown guidelines for manufacturing facilities.

That department in a statement said more guidance would likely be issued in the days ahead, but did not provide further details.


In an internal memo on Monday, Tesla Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk told employees he was not aware of any who had tested positive for the virus, and urged them to stay home if they felt the "slightest bit ill or even uncomfortable," sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.

Bay Area counties had reported 273 coronavirus infections by Monday. California has reported six deaths from the COVID-19 respiratory illness caused by the virus. (Reporting by Tina Bellon in New York, additional reporting by Hyunjoo Jin in Seoul, Ann Maria Shibu in Bengaluru and Yilei Sun in Beijing; Editing by Cynthia Osterman, Paul Simao and David Gregorio)

Elon needs to cut this loss, accept it's gonna close and laser-focus on making Tesla the only smart-working automaker of this planet. If there is a guy who can actually manage this it's him.
But in the current global mindset there is no place (and won't be for weeks, at least) for uberrational "shenanigans", nuanced doubtful tweets, etc. There is no time for that, that ship is sailed. Fear is here to stay, is the new status quo for the time being.

I'm telling you this as a normal guy living in Europe who 4 weeks ago could do whatever he wanted and now lives in a country that is under a sort of martial law, in an unprecedented turn of events, where all the time they tell you to stay home or the health system will totally collapse. Maybe Italy is in a unique situation, but no premier in the world wants to find out the hard way.
Fear is a mind killer, but minds are already killed. Politicians are just acting on uncertainty and precaution. They are scared, population is scared. It's a "war" mindset (war was definitely worse, by far, but bear with me).
Elon just needs to accept it, IMHO, and see what he can do the plants shutdown for few weeks.
I don't think he has an alternative.
 
FYI: Decision by Alameda County about whether Fremont can keep making cars looks imminent.

=====

March 17 (Reuters) - Local California officials on Tuesday were evaluating if and how Tesla Inc will be allowed to continue operating its main U.S. vehicle factory as the San Francisco Bay Area begins a three-week lockdown to rein in the spread of coronavirus.

A spokesman for California's Alameda County, where Tesla's Fremont factory is located, said the county was consulting its lawyers and health officials to evaluate the situation and provide an answer by the end of the day.

"Part of Tesla's operations might fall under an exemption in the (county's) order, but making cars and pumping them out at the end of the assembly line is another question," the spokesman said.


Tesla told employees in an email that the company and its suppliers would continue operations supporting the manufacturing and delivery of vehicles, a person who had see the email told Reuters.

On Monday, several media outlets reported the factory would be allowed to remain open, but a spokesman for Alameda County on Tuesday said there was no definitive answer yet on how to keep workers safe.

The spokesman said he was also looking to connect with a Tesla official on the matter.

Tesla did not respond to a request for comment on Tuesday.

Tesla's sole U.S. auto factory in Alameda County employs more than 10,000 workers and had annualized production of slightly over 415,000 units by the fourth quarter.

The county is one of six covered by a 'shelter in place' order from regional authorities that limits activity, travel and business functions to only the most essential, and advises people to stay home except for the most crucial reasons.

So far, automakers and their suppliers have avoided government-mandated production shutdowns in the United States.

The California governor's on Tuesday referred to California's Department of Public Health when asked whether the state planned to issue any shutdown guidelines for manufacturing facilities.

That department in a statement said more guidance would likely be issued in the days ahead, but did not provide further details.


In an internal memo on Monday, Tesla Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk told employees he was not aware of any who had tested positive for the virus, and urged them to stay home if they felt the "slightest bit ill or even uncomfortable," sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.

Bay Area counties had reported 273 coronavirus infections by Monday. California has reported six deaths from the COVID-19 respiratory illness caused by the virus. (Reporting by Tina Bellon in New York, additional reporting by Hyunjoo Jin in Seoul, Ann Maria Shibu in Bengaluru and Yilei Sun in Beijing; Editing by Cynthia Osterman, Paul Simao and David Gregorio)
Are you ****ing kidding me!?! It's not just a car, it's a car that doesn't pollute...who the **** wouldn't want that? Damn we have stupid people running the world....

And dont get me started on GM and no interests rate crap - yay. Keep letting people destory the environment at a lower cost.

/rant
 
The -10% circuit breaker tripped again, so the "Uptick Rule" will remain in effect for the 5th consecutive day tomorrow, Mar 18, 2020. The only effect this rule is having is to empower naked short selling by Market Makers, allowing them to drive down TSLA even with macro tailwinds.
Would market makers shorting to hedge puts they sold be called "naked" ?
 
OK, so two things are being conflated here - naked short selling (which market makers can do), and short selling not on upticks while the alternative uptick rule is active on a stock (which market makers can do as part of market making activity).

Naked short selling means short selling without actually borrowing the share - creating a share out of thin air. They have to eventually get one, though, or they have to report the failure.

We won't know if this happened unless they fail to deliver within... 13 days I believe? And in this market, I doubt that'll be the case.

Market makers hedging their puts is, as I understand, the exact purpose of the market making activity exemption.
 
I underestimated just how contagious this virus is. It’s insane. Watching Boeing, the airlines and American oil industry collapse is truly amazing. There is zero appetite for risk in this market. I expect Tesla to be mispriced for at least a year. Tesla will survive of course, but the ride will be shakey. I still have a bit over 1,000 shares which I won’t let go of and am happy that I took a bunch of profit near the top, but I won’t buy here. Need to flush the degenerate gamblers out of this stock like we did with the shorts

The degenerate gamblers are simply betting in the opposite direction. The options market is not closed. They make money both ways. The shorts also just jumped right back in and if they cover (which they can always buy back shares) now or even much later they have/will made a fortune. Whoever is naked shorting is making money hand over fist. I don't get why naked shorting has not been shut down completely. There is NO WAY a Market Maker can not find shares in this financial down turn.... well they can't find shares that will make them billions, hence the naked shorting.

I think you might not realize our trading rules need a major overhaul.
 
Tesla can keep their factory open, and being vertically integrated is ideal for these situations, but they are not 100% vertical so while they may remain open, their parts suppliers may not and once they dry up parts inventory they will have to stop making cars. If you are missing even one part you are done.

BUT....That's the time to go ahead and re-tool the assembly line or whatever you planned to do over the longer term to make production better so when things start rolling again you are much more efficient at making cars.
 
The way to keep Fremont running is crystal clear: test everyone, repeat.

European automotive factories are shutting down while stateside the UAW is demanding the same right now.
UAW presses Detroit 3 for 2-week plant shutdown, sets deadline tonight

Assuming outside suppliers keep up, every day Tesla goes on cranking out new cars - even if the pace has to be adjusted - will also show how to get to grips with the coronavirus faster, cheaper, and smarter.

Bingo! Not even a deviation from the enterprise's main mission, but sort of a swerve.

Maybe care to retweet? Sean Wagner on Twitter
 
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Reactions: Snerruc
Tesla can keep their factory open, and being vertically integrated is ideal for these situations, but they are not 100% vertical so while they may remain open, their parts suppliers may not and once they dry up parts inventory they will have to stop making cars. If you are missing even one part you are done.
Depending upon the part. Some parts could be installed later as long as they don't affect driving safety or regulations. So if they couldn't get seat belts, that would stop production. However, if they were short cameras, they could still deliver the car with a deficiency list to be installed later.
 
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OK, so two things are being conflated here - naked short selling (which market makers can do), and short selling not on upticks while the alternative uptick rule is active on a stock (which market makers can do as part of market making activity).

Naked short selling means short selling without actually borrowing the share - creating a share out of thin air. They have to eventually get one, though, or they have to report the failure.

We won't know if this happened unless they fail to deliver within... 13 days I believe? And in this market, I doubt that'll be the case.

Market makers hedging their puts is, as I understand, the exact purpose of the market making activity exemption.

Wait, are you saying my 30,000 puts at 400 would cause them to short 3,000,000 shares ? /S
 
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