Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Steve m]

In FSD news, sounds like first versions of stop light / sign stopping heavily rely on GPS / maps to work (won't work well on temporary stop signs.

While this is fine for getting it out there to start collecting more data and improve perception, this is the sort of case where it would be better if Musk didn't trash relying on Maps... If he's going to temporarily do the same thing...

Source?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

This does not continue at exponential rate. I am sorry, but infections disease follows exponential curve otherwise simple exercise very soon twice the entire population of the world is wiped out. Even if your goal is to create panic let us stay rational. Reality check: random checks indicatete that a decent percentage of population have already contracted the virus and survived without any or minimal symptoms. The data could be better but that is what we have. Based on that death rate might possibly 10 times higher than the current one with generous accounting. Unless you go with really generous accounting: meaning count everybody who dies with COVID and not because of COVID, and that is happening already. (otherwise sorry if this is repetition of others. I lost most of my interest in the forum. Moderators had a useful role even if they sometimes abused it.)

If that comment annoyed you........whatever you do don't go to the Coronavirus thread . I gave up posting over there because everyone keeps taking current numbers and extrapolating end of the economy math over there.

 

[Sanny]

I got many dislikes on this reply to the DaveT question if he is too pessimistic. Let me explain what I meant to say.

Those who need financial support are people who lost their jobs and were living paycheck to paycheck. They were never likely to buy a luxury brand as Tesla.

At the same time, the number of people with enough disposable income that are canceling orders due to Coronavirus is unlikely to be higher than the loss of production capacity caused by the factory shutdowns. Thus, a demand problem doesn’t really exist.

Tens of thousands of upper middle class business owners disagree with you. Tens of thousands of laid off middle class employees disagree with you. Seems like the comfort of your regular paycheck is clouding your understanding of situation.

 

[StealthP3D]

The main worry is not what has happened already, the main worry is what is about to happen and what would have happened if we did nothing. So far the spread is to less than 1/1000 of the world population, and mostly the richer part of the world with good healthcare not exceeding capacity. For the poorer parts of the world and with overwhelmed hospitals it could be even worse.

View attachment 526702

See what you did there? You took a post that was about human driving error causing massive numbers of auto accidents and that had NOTHING to do with COVID-19 and turned it into a COVID-19 message.

 

[EVNow]

I got many dislikes on this reply to the DaveT question if he is too pessimistic. Let me explain what I meant to say.

Those who need financial support are people who lost their jobs and were living paycheck to paycheck. They were never likely to buy a luxury brand as Tesla.

Not true, anecdotally. Do you have a source for this ?

At the same time, the number of people with enough disposable income that are canceling orders due to Coronavirus is unlikely to be higher than the loss of production capacity caused by the factory shutdowns. Thus, a demand problem doesn’t really exist.

This sounds like just hopeful speculation. What do you base this conclusion on ?

ps : There is a long history of people postponing luxury items in uncertain times. More over where am I going to drive the new car to now ?

 

[ggr]

You are missing an L...
@enn_nafnlaus

Thanks. Corrected my post (incorrectly... doing it yet again...)

 

[gerebgraus]

I got many dislikes on this reply to the DaveT question if he is too pessimistic. Let me explain what I meant to say.

Those who need financial support are people who lost their jobs and were living paycheck to paycheck. They were never likely to buy a luxury brand as Tesla.

At the same time, the number of people with enough disposable income that are canceling orders due to Coronavirus is unlikely to be higher than the loss of production capacity caused by the factory shutdowns. Thus, a demand problem doesn’t really exist.

There are plenty of high earning engineer who are getting still getting their paycheck, but their work serve parts of the economy that is collapsing. E.g. twitter preannounced lower earnings because ad spending is down. It is fair to say that Twitter engineers (typical Tesla customers) will be more cautious with their money even if they have not lost their job.

 

[JRP3]

A Seeking Alpha bear turns positive-ish: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4334461-tesla-bear-turns-positive

 

[LJS22]

As we come to a time when the headlines will surely be about demand for new cars and electric cars falling it is important to remember what we have.

- Tesla makes the most compelling cars in the world. Electric or gas they to me are the most intriguing and people are going to gravitate towards that for some time.

- Elon Musk is a great wild card. No other CEO can rebuild momentum and excitement like he can. I think he has big plans for the second half of the year. That’s a safe bet any year, but especially now as people get over this rough first half.

- gas won’t be $1.50 forever. The whiplash of prices going low to high is a momentum mover towards something more stable, and again Tesla has the most compelling alternative.

Tons of other things going on this year for Tesla. Maybe some get delayed some move on without a hitch. I think most of us are comfortable with Tesla even in this hectic time

 

[BriansTesla]

As we come to a time when the headlines will surely be about demand for new cars and electric cars falling it is important to remember what we have.

- Tesla makes the most compelling cars in the world. Electric or gas they to me are the most intriguing and people are going to gravitate towards that for some time.

- Elon Musk is a great wild card. No other CEO can rebuild momentum and excitement like he can. I think he has big plans for the second half of the year. That’s a safe bet any year, but especially now as people get over this rough first half.

- gas won’t be $1.50 forever. The whiplash of prices going low to high is a momentum mover towards something more stable, and again Tesla has the most compelling alternative.

Tons of other things going on this year for Tesla. Maybe some get delayed some move on without a hitch. I think most of us are comfortable with Tesla even in this hectic time

As I left work on Friday and looked out over the Port of Tacoma I saw thousands of new cars and Trucks parked waiting to be shipped to dealers. All I could think of is "Who is going to buy all those?". I really would not want to be an ICE car dealer or manufacturer right now.

Most of them I believe will never recover.

 

[CyberDutchie]

Tens of thousands of upper middle class business owners disagree with you. Tens of thousands of laid off middle class employees disagree with you. Seems like the comfort of your regular paycheck is clouding your understanding of situation.

This sounds like just hopeful speculation. What do you base this conclusion on ?

ps : There is a long history of people postponing luxury items in uncertain times. More over where am I going to drive the new car to now ?

You are not understanding what I’m trying to say here. I am not arguing that people won’t cancel or delay orders.

I’m saying the number of people who cancel or delay their orders IMO will be less than the lowered production because of factory shutdown. Therefore, there will not be a demand problem for Tesla.

In other words, production capacity will still be lower than their order book. This is not going to affect the demand for Tesla cars. The factory shutdown is the only thing that impacts the numbers, not demand.

 

[davecolene0606]

View attachment 526721

cant wait to see March.

Fire Away!
(It’s STILL the batteries, Stupid!)

 

[aubreymcfato]

See what you did there? You took a post that was about human driving error causing massive numbers of auto accidents and that had NOTHING to do with COVID-19 and turned it into a COVID-19 message.

TBH, I too interpreted it as "downplaying" the covid situation. It's always on our mind.

 

[PeterJA]

Flattening the curve on CO2 requires other automakers to be successful in making electric cars....

I've opined before that this assumption is incorrect if Tesla continues growing production exponentially, which could be capitalized by huge profits from Tesla Network. Now it is clear that Tesla is our only hope, among American automakers, of flattening the CO2 curve. (sorry if the following was already posted and discussed)

General Motors Co and Ford Motor Co have widely touted their commitment to emission-free electric cars, but their production plans show a growing reliance on ever-larger gas-powered vehicles.

The two biggest U.S. automakers will make more than 5 million SUVs and pickup trucks in 2026, but only about 320,000 electric vehicles, according to detailed production plans for North America seen by Reuters.

That will be about 5% of their combined vehicle production in North America, but less than Tesla Inc, the world leader in electric vehicles, produced last year.

The plans show that Detroit’s Big Two are betting their short-term future on satisfying America’s demand for bigger, petroleum-fueled vehicles which they can sell at a higher profit margin than mostly smaller, expensive-to-develop electric vehicles.

Large SUVs consume about a quarter more energy than midsize cars, meaning the plans will most likely wipe out any gains in overall fuel efficiency or reduction in auto emissions that were targeted over the next six years, according to industry experts.
Detroit's near future based on SUVs, not EVs, production plans show

To reduce emissions, legacy automakers must do more than make EVs. They must make EVs that can compete with Tesla EVs. GM and Ford now seem to understand that they can't do that, so they are "betting their short-term future" on planet-killing old tech. They are caught in the Innovator's Dilemma and likely won't survive in the long term, so they are profiting all they can from the short term.

Tesla's tech is way ahead and likely will stay that way. Think about what that means. It means Tesla will continue selling every car they can make, and will continue taking market share from ICE cars. By 2026, Tesla will make as many vehicles as GM and Ford do now, and these old giants will be shrunken or gone.

 

[vikings123]

I’m saying the number of people who cancel or delay their orders IMO will be less than the lowered production because of factory shutdown. Therefore, there will not be a demand problem for Tesla.

In other words, production capacity will still be lower than their order book.

There are things we know and things we don’t.

1. We know Tesla is ramping up production of model 3 in China and pushing boundaries to get the model Y lines built. To me this is a clear signal that demand exists in China and maybe some of the Asian countries. And maybe Elon and Co see this as a way to offset lower demand from US and Europe.

2. We also know Tesla can pull multiple demand levers; reduced pricing, FSD discounts. With all the goodwill we are generating with Trump and other Governors I’m not not ruling out some form of a tax credit from state and federal governments.

3. We don’t know what the Covid19 economic recovery looks like for US and Europe. To me this is the biggest unknown hence I’m very skeptical about anybody that says we will not have a demand problem. I hope you are right but need more data to be able to say it with so much conviction. We will need to wait for Q1 earnings call.

Demand or no demand in short term, We know TSLA will come out of this stronger than any other car manufacturer in the world. So I continue to HODL and look for opportunities to buy more as Tesla dips with the macros In the coming weeks.

 

[capster]

FWIW, I'm not selling. I ordered an X, and X was delivered (though it's out for PPF and tint), so there's no change in deliveries.

One of my siblings took delivery of a Model 3 in the greater LA area this last Thursday. So, yes deliveries have continued.

 

[SMAlset]

As I left work on Friday and looked out over the Port of Tacoma I saw thousands of new cars and Trucks parked waiting to be shipped to dealers. All I could think of is "Who is going to buy all those?". I really would not want to be an ICE car dealer or manufacturer right now.

Most of them I believe will never recover.

Many many years ago back in early 70s my friend’s dad had a Volkswagen dealership. He eventually sold it. I recall he said that he had to essentially buy a set number of cars that would be delivered to his dealership each period. No choice. Not sure how things work these days but the dealerships I see around here have huge lots of parked cars. And recent articles concerning a large volume of unsold last year’s model cars still sitting on lots is compounding the problem of slower sales this quarter. I agree there will be dealerships going under in the coming year. Manufacturers have better control of the cars to be produced and can reduce production lines and do layoffs to curb their costs.

Dealerships are in a tougher position in downturns. My understanding is that many of them also rent the lots they are parking all those inventory cars on. Many dealerships are long-time family owned businesses too. I believe Tesla with its model of factory-to-owner delivery basically will be in a much better position going forward. No advertising expenses really either.

 

[Thekiwi]

One of my siblings took delivery of a Model 3 in the greater LA area this last Thursday. So, yes deliveries have continued.

Car servicing and deliveries are deemed essential services, so I would hope Tesla deliveries are ongoing.

Anyone have a read on California Inventory levels?

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Car servicing and deliveries are deemed essential services, so I would hope Tesla deliveries are ongoing.

Anyone have a read on California Inventory levels?

They definetly continue in Canada. Or at least in Vancouver. Our SA has been going steady. Unfortunately we have been given new dates of mid June for my wife’s model 3.

 

[hobbes]

Munro got a Model Y they can tear down so we´ll soon know more about those new cast parts for example:
Munro & Associates on Twitter