Flattening the curve on CO2 requires other automakers to be successful in making electric cars. That idea seems to actively rooted against on this forum because we all want TSLA to be as successful as possible.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Many folks contributing to this forum are rooting for other automakers to succeed in EVs.... they are just not cooperating
... it will happen but now it looks very likely it will be very different model from what we have today
It is unfortunate ...but people need to move on if they feel they are not being treated properly ... we are in very stressful times and folks should not over-react to this ... not sure what the benefit of leaving TMC or cancelling your subscription is if you get value from this thread?
"cut your nose to spite your face much"
there are many intelligent investors and traders that post to this thread ... and just because they are not posting continuously or purporting to be expert in every topic under the sun does not mean the contributions are not of value ... anyone can search the web and post all kinds of inane information ....good posters will come and go ...
I am sorry to see KR or FC go but life goes on .... I guess KR or FC never worked for a large company ... you get hit by a bus and the next day it is business as usual ... you need to check your ego at the door ... and be mindful of your self importance
In 2008 recession, car sales dropped much more than employment rates did. I think it would be risky to assume people will spend as aggressively on big purchases as normal even if still employed. If it happened 2 years ago, I know my wife would have "persuaded" me to wait longer on Model 3 purchase.
We don't know how all the cascading effects will play out. Travel industry will be decimated... Will ad buys drop and Google /Facebook revenues drop? A lot of Tesla buyers at those companies.
In the flip side, the stimulus is more aggressive than in 2008-2009 so maybe that will reduce the effects.
I just don't know how anyone can be very sure right now.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Personally, I thought this site was infinitely better before the standard behavior was to post 30x per day. This thread was far better back in the days before it got so clogged up.
Krugerrand
Meow
Clearly not. Look outside right now. We just need to not drive ICE vehicles.
I get your point and I’m one who wants pretty much all other OEMs to implode, but there are actually quite a few Tesla supporters who want OEMs to succeed and believe they have to succeed at EVs to save the planet.
hacer
Active Member
Just to expand on what I was getting at: From 1990 to 2019 the US GDP grew 264% - (total factor of 3.644, not quite quadrupling) this is not inflation adjusted, "real GDP" which is inflation adjusted grew only about 104% over that time. source
Meanwhile the S&P500 grew 864% without dividend reinvested or 1,681% with dividends reinvested. Adjusted for inflation those become 374.6% and 766.9% respectively. source.
So over those 30 years, the S&P500 total return grew almost 5 times (4.857) faster than the growth of the whole US economy in actual dollar terms, or about 4.25 times faster in inflation adjusted terms. So is there room for a correction (even without a pandemic) or should we expect this to be the norm for the next 30, 50 or even 100 years?
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With the state of the world at the moment I think he has enough sense to not try pranking us.
On a generic note I believe the sentiment right now is very negative having its impact on most predictions and assumptions. Thats nothing new and clearly human.
Having lived through many crisis in a stock markets I remember very well each time everybody telling me but this time everything is different. Thats true to a certain extend because every bear market was caused by different matters and in its situation unique.
Beside that I believe the US in terms of corona has still the worst to come but I see first signals here in Europe that we may be near peak and some countries may even have passed it already. China (Jay in Shanghai #SaveChad on Twitter) and Asia have it clearly behind and I hear from many sources that business is going better and faster up than expected.
Here in Europe we still have a long way to go and the ramp out of this mess will not come with one big lift of regulations but in phases.
Having said that listening to car buyers here in Europe I do not hear that much about Tesla cancellations but many who praise the advantage having an Tesla in this times. Deliveries are ongoing and many pay even €800 extra to get the vehicle delivered home even if they don't have plates yet and won't for a while. Some frustration is rather been seen that they can't really sell their used ice any more which is something I did predict a while ago but well who could have assumed all goes that quickly. Just read from someone that ordered 5 days ago and received the car yesterday. Certainly inventory will be higher than wished for.
Despite a recession will happen without a doubt the question is still what kind of recession. I am with Ark Invest that we will see a V shaped situation but even a V can have different shapes. For structural reasons I do not see a longer U recession but 2020 will be no good.
That does not mean that 2020 will not be goof for Tesla though and it does not mean that TSLA will perform bad. My assumption is that the negative sentiment for ICE companies is justified but Tesla will do much better.
Mostly ignored the GF Berlin is ongoing with just about a week delay and contracts are given even for the Energy supply next year.
So, in short I don't see this to last extremely long and for long term investors it won't change much. In a recession disrupters do better than incumbents and I believe exactly that will happen.
Stay positive and.. my next video (#2) will be online soon.
Having lived through many crisis in a stock markets I remember very well each time everybody telling me but this time everything is different. Thats true to a certain extend because every bear market was caused by different matters and in its situation unique.
Beside that I believe the US in terms of corona has still the worst to come but I see first signals here in Europe that we may be near peak and some countries may even have passed it already. China (Jay in Shanghai #SaveChad on Twitter) and Asia have it clearly behind and I hear from many sources that business is going better and faster up than expected.
Here in Europe we still have a long way to go and the ramp out of this mess will not come with one big lift of regulations but in phases.
Having said that listening to car buyers here in Europe I do not hear that much about Tesla cancellations but many who praise the advantage having an Tesla in this times. Deliveries are ongoing and many pay even €800 extra to get the vehicle delivered home even if they don't have plates yet and won't for a while. Some frustration is rather been seen that they can't really sell their used ice any more which is something I did predict a while ago but well who could have assumed all goes that quickly. Just read from someone that ordered 5 days ago and received the car yesterday. Certainly inventory will be higher than wished for.
Despite a recession will happen without a doubt the question is still what kind of recession. I am with Ark Invest that we will see a V shaped situation but even a V can have different shapes. For structural reasons I do not see a longer U recession but 2020 will be no good.
That does not mean that 2020 will not be goof for Tesla though and it does not mean that TSLA will perform bad. My assumption is that the negative sentiment for ICE companies is justified but Tesla will do much better.
Mostly ignored the GF Berlin is ongoing with just about a week delay and contracts are given even for the Energy supply next year.
So, in short I don't see this to last extremely long and for long term investors it won't change much. In a recession disrupters do better than incumbents and I believe exactly that will happen.
Stay positive and.. my next video (#2) will be online soon.
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I’ve come to the conclusion that EVs are so fundamentally different from ICEVs that there is no reason to expect OEMs to transition. Analogy: transition from horse-drawn carriage to automobile. Both have four wheels and seats. So what?
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In FSD news, sounds like first versions of stop light / sign stopping heavily rely on GPS / maps to work (won't work well on temporary stop signs.
While this is fine for getting it out there to start collecting more data and improve perception, this is the sort of case where it would be better if Musk didn't trash relying on Maps... If he's going to temporarily do the same thing...
While this is fine for getting it out there to start collecting more data and improve perception, this is the sort of case where it would be better if Musk didn't trash relying on Maps... If he's going to temporarily do the same thing...
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I believe some carriage makers did transition to automobiles. Fisher comes to mind:
Fisher Body - Wikipedia
Stars aligned
Member
Yeah, left months ago and returned only today. Seems more chilled now.
Elon hasn’t trashed maps overall. Merely the extremely fragile, expensive highly detailed 3D maps everyone else is relying on.
This does not continue at exponential rate. I am sorry, but infections disease follows exponential curve otherwise simple exercise very soon twice the entire population of the world is wiped out. Even if your goal is to create panic let us stay rational. Reality check: random checks indicatete that a decent percentage of population have already contracted the virus and survived without any or minimal symptoms. The data could be better but that is what we have. Based on that death rate might possibly 10 times higher than the current one with generous accounting. Unless you go with really generous accounting: meaning count everybody who dies with COVID and not because of COVID, and that is happening already. (otherwise sorry if this is repetition of others. I lost most of my interest in the forum. Moderators had a useful role even if they sometimes abused it.)
I read through Green's posts and comments and I think he's wrong on his assumption that it's more dependent on GPS than vision. He says Tesla's language in the manual update is ambiguous to make it sound it's more reliant on Vision.....I think Green's comments/interpretations are ambiguous to confuse people. Not sure why he thinks the way he does about the language in the manual. It clearly states visions is the main application being used with GPS providing more accuracy than vision alone at this time.
He was also wrong about what is needed to use the stop light/stop feature. He was originally stating in his post that it was an Autopilot feature that was part of the safety features and thus not part of FSD features. He confused a lot of people and finally admitted that in the language, it says the stop light/stop sign feature is for Navigate on Autopilot which is a FSD feature.
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